POLL:How likely do you think it is we see double digits in 2015?

[8up]

The fact that the majority here thinks that there is no chance for double digits to happen makes me think that double digits is going to happen. Maybe even 40-50 dollars.

Indeed. Besides you never know, if it is faked. As everybody in here knows, that the overall sentiment (blind spot) is the (unvisible) price forth. I observe polls for quite a time. The option with the fewest votes almost every time became reality.

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[WhatTheGox]

Inspired by two equally bold and opposing calls in the Chessnut's 'Critical Level's' thread (85% and 20%), thought it would be interesting to see what anyone else has to say ...
Poll closes in 30 days, unless target hit earlier 

We only see these levels if we have some insane bad news i think, bears will always set a target way lower than what they actually think.

[Feri22]

The fact that the majority here thinks that there is no chance for double digits to happen makes me think that double digits is going to happen. Maybe even 40-50 dollars.

Yeah, i'm starting to getting this feeling too...but also i am still hoping that soon nobody will believe in reversal and than it will happen because bears would become to sure about the doom of BTC...so pick 

[swansong]

You should add another option = 0%.

[Amph]

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

only those with huge volume maybe, they surely will start to cut employers and rise the fee at first

small exchange should be safe until sub 50 or around that

they could also start to buy in bulk if they see the price decline to that red zone, for this and for many other reason sub 100 will not  see the light

[srgkrgkj]

You should add another option = 0%.

lol thats what i was thinking too but yeah i believe the chances of double digits are near 0 or 0.1 even in a flash crash this year ...

[phoenix1]

You should add another option = 0%.

lol thats what i was thinking too but yeah i believe the chances of double digits are near 0 or 0.1 even in a flash crash this year ...

Bit late now as we dont know how many 0%'ers are already in the 0-20% category.
Next time ... goddam extremists 

[srgkrgkj]

You should add another option = 0%.

lol thats what i was thinking too but yeah i believe the chances of double digits are near 0 or 0.1 even in a flash crash this year ...

Bit late now as we dont know how many 0%'ers are already in the 0-20% category.
Next time ... goddam extremists 

xD guess we should poll again lol they were pretty wide ranges tho :O

[phoenix1]

You should add another option = 0%.

lol thats what i was thinking too but yeah i believe the chances of double digits are near 0 or 0.1 even in a flash crash this year ...

Bit late now as we dont know how many 0%'ers are already in the 0-20% category.
Next time ... goddam extremists 

xD guess we should poll again lol they were pretty wide ranges tho :O

Intentionally so. I almost went for 10%, but I thought it would be easier for people to place themselves in a 20% band than agonise over which 10% range. Seemed a bit narrow. Personally I would find it difficult to quantify my feelings to that degree of precision 

0 or 100% woulda been fun in order to see the extremists, but also encourages trolling I think, and I am hoping we get honest votes and a representative result. Maybe 0-10 and 90-100 would be good to put into the mix next time ...

[futureofbitcoin]

I would've voted for 0-100%, but since there was no such option, I just voted 40-60% since I wanted to see the results.

You see, I'm no market analyst so I have no clue what will happen. You guys can mentally remove 1 vote from 40-60% i guess

[futureofbitcoin]

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

That said double digits would mean that Bitcoin was completely abandoned by investors and almost everybody cashed out. I'm sure we're far from this extreme outcome.
There's still a chance we'll go below $200 for a bit, but we are already below the long term trend line so it won't last long.

I think many of the smartest folks are a bit more long term than that. Those who will abandon bitcoin when the price reaches double digits are mostly people who made 0 contributions to the system and don't really matter anyway. There will be enough people who will replace them in the next rally.


Correction. I HOPE that's the case.

[NeuroticFish]

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

That said double digits would mean that Bitcoin was completely abandoned by investors and almost everybody cashed out. I'm sure we're far from this extreme outcome.
There's still a chance we'll go below $200 for a bit, but we are already below the long term trend line so it won't last long.

You have been in here too early. The poll is still young and already more than 50% of us voted for 0-20%.
Don't make your assumptions too quick, your life will be easier then.

[phoenix1]

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

My humblest apologies for not allowing you to fully express yourself and forcing you to give the appearance that you might possibly be even slightly open to the possibility. Very pleased you feel able to talk about it now and relieve you angst. I will punch myself in the face several times as pennance. I hope that helps. After all, it was clearly a deliberate attempt to skew the poll to give us a misleading average greater than zero 

Would 1% intervals keep everyone happy? Or do we need to go to decimals ?

Any other 0-20 haters out there, c'mon, speak up, don't be shy!

[srgkrgkj]

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

My humblest apologies for not allowing you to fully express yourself and forcing you to give the appearance that you might possibly be even slightly open to the possibility. Very pleased you feel able to talk about it now and relieve you angst. I will punch myself in the face several times as pennance. I hope that helps. After all, it was clearly a deliberate attempt to skew the poll to give us a misleading average greater than zero 

Would 1% intervals keep everyone happy? Or do we need to go to decimals ?

Any other 0-20 haters out there, c'mon, speak up, don't be shy!

xD phoniex, well some people feel strongly about the success of Bitcoin and i might be one of them too lol

[futureofbitcoin]

I'm one of the 0% forced to vote for the 0-20 range, so I'm writing this post to file an official protest.

My humblest apologies for not allowing you to fully express yourself and forcing you to give the appearance that you might possibly be even slightly open to the possibility. Very pleased you feel able to talk about it now and relieve you angst. I will punch myself in the face several times as pennance. I hope that helps. After all, it was clearly a deliberate attempt to skew the poll to give us a misleading average greater than zero 

Would 1% intervals keep everyone happy? Or do we need to go to decimals ?

Any other 0-20 haters out there, c'mon, speak up, don't be shy!

*speaking for them*: Just change the poll such that the answers are either 0%, 0%, 0%, impossible, or no way in hell.

[phoenix1]

^^
 

[RyNinDaCleM]

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

[Tzupy]

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

Win win just in theory. The exchange owners probably are large BTC holders, they would personally benefit much more from higher prices.

[RyNinDaCleM]

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

Win win just in theory. The exchange owners probably are large BTC holders, they would personally benefit much more from higher prices.

I guess my main point is that they flourished just fine for 3 years before we broke $100 and I don't understand why breaking below it now would make any difference to that. Sure, they may prefer higher prices, but that doesn't mean they go under. Only if people leave by the droves due to perceived failure would they end up hurting financially from such an event.

[1Referee]

I voted for 0-20% as it is not very likely to see double digits this year.

If there would be a reason for it, then the Bitstamp hack could have triggered double digits. But it didn't.