Why do we assume that Satoshi cashing out his coins would be noticeable?

[Lorenzo]

Quote is from another thread but I'd rather not derail that one so I'm starting a new thread:

If he cashing out his bitcoin, he may exposure himself, his identity will be revealed, which he didn't like it. So I think he may never cashing out his bitcoin.

Why is it always assumed that Satoshi choosing to dump his coins would be immediately noticeable?

Satoshi was the first to mine and sometimes the only one mining in the very early days but others like Hal Finney were mining too. After 2010, many other people jumped aboard and started mining with their own PCs. Satoshi was still around on the forums until late 2010 and didn't disappear completely until 2011. If he had continued mining until then (and possibly even after 2010-2011) then it would be impossible to know whether it's Satoshi who is dumping his coins or just another early adopter. Someone who constantly mined on a PC with reasonable specs from 2010 onwards would still have made enough BTC to call themselves filthy rich.

I'm not doubting that Satoshi's earliest mined coins that were worth billions at one stage were left untouched but couldn't it be possible that he still sold a couple million dollars worth of BTC and is living the high life today?

[1Referee]

People like to think he will dump his stash in one go causing the price to plummet real hard.

They don't realize that you can slowly sell without leaving marks or hurting the market.

[Lauda]

I'm pretty sure that there are a lot of people who are closely watching his known addresses for movement. Any movement would indicate that he is most likely back.
This could mean a lot of things. He'd be at risk if he does so.

[pawel7777]

Quote is from another thread but I'd rather not derail that one so I'm starting a new thread:

If he cashing out his bitcoin, he may exposure himself, his identity will be revealed, which he didn't like it. So I think he may never cashing out his bitcoin.

Why is it always assumed that Satoshi choosing to dump his coins would be immediately noticeable?

Most people who say it would be noticeable probably mean ~1 mil coins spread over multiple wallets that allegedly were owned by Satoshi. Those are being watched by many and if any of the coins moves it would get massive attention + likely panic (in terms of price).

Whether he had/has any other coins and actively use(d) them is rather irrelevant, as people already expect such coins to be in circulation (as part of the supply).

I hope he did manage to somehow capitalise on his invention and secured his financial future. It would be pretty sad to think that he's stuck in some shitty 9-5 job to pay his bills.

[chaoman]

satoshi deserves to be rich after this invention. they are his coins anyway he has the right to sell them.

[teukon]

I'm not doubting that Satoshi's earliest mined coins that were worth billions at one stage were left untouched but couldn't it be possible that he still sold a couple million dollars worth of BTC and is living the high life today?

Certainly, Satoshi could exchange some of his bitcoins without arousing suspicion just as you say.  However, I expect he would be noticed long before reaching millions of dollars (assume USD) worth of BTC.  It is believed that almost all of the unspent coinbase outputs belong to Satoshi (most everyone else combined their outputs, creating large balances at a single address).  On top of this, there's a strange pattern in the nonce values of the old blocks with unspent coinbase outputs which allow us to decide coins owned by Satoshi with even greater accuracy.

[Q7]

If he was cashing out in small amount but on frequent basis would we have known it's him that's doing it? There's always different ways and option on how to do it but still keeping his identity concealed. All these claims are just based on assumptions.

[pitham1]

If he was cashing out in small amount but on frequent basis would we have known it's him that's doing it? There's always different ways and option on how to do it but still keeping his identity concealed. All these claims are just based on assumptions.

Any movement in those coins (small or otherwise) would generate a lot of interest. It will not be easy to conceal his identity though. He can ask funds to be transferred to a numbered account in exchange for his coins.

[Lorenzo]

I'm pretty sure that there are a lot of people who are closely watching his known addresses for movement. Any movement would indicate that he is most likely back.
This could mean a lot of things. He'd be at risk if he does so.

But as the addresses become more recent, it would become harder and harder to pin them on him right? If you saw a new 50 BTC block being generated in early 2011, how would you know whether it was Satoshi mining it or the other ~500 or so miners mining at the time?

Or was Satoshi the only miner to leave his coins scattered across multiple addresses? If so, then I guess it would be possible to identify which addresses belong to him. That is, unless he changed his practices and began merging his coins into a few large addresses like everyone else.

The idea that Satoshi wouldn't even sell any coins at all seems rather strange. Even if he believed that the BTC value would rise further or he intended those coins that he mined to be a donation to everybody, he still needs money to eat and pay the bills like everyone else. And for most people who are working 9 to 5 in order to survive, it would be very tempting to retire and use the extra money to pay off the usual expenses like rent or a mortgage don't you think?

EDIT: Then again, I guess if he were rich and content with his existing wealth/lifestyle then I can understand why he would leave the coins alone.

[Light]

But as the addresses become more recent, it would become harder and harder to pin them on him right? If you saw a new 50 BTC block being generated in early 2011, how would you know whether it was Satoshi mining it or the other ~500 or so miners mining at the time?

Or was Satoshi the only miner to leave his coins scattered across multiple addresses? If so, then I guess it would be possible to identify which addresses belong to him. That is, unless he changed his practices and began merging his coins into a few large addresses like everyone else.

The idea that Satoshi wouldn't even sell any coins at all seems rather strange. Even if he believed that the BTC value would rise further or he intended those coins that he mined to be a donation to everybody, he still needs money to eat and pay the bills like everyone else. And for most people who are working 9 to 5 in order to survive, it would be very tempting to retire and use the extra money to pay off the usual expenses like rent or a mortgage don't you think?

EDIT: Then again, I guess if he were rich and content with his existing wealth/lifestyle then I can understand why he would leave the coins alone.

You are correct - there is nothing to say that any newer blocks which we haven't attributed to him haven't been cashed out and that he is leaving the ones we do know about alone so as not to draw anymore attention. It could be that he already has a RL job that pays him well enough without having to actually use the BTC he has - or he doesn't wish to have his identity exposed (take the whole Dorian saga for example) so would rather not risk it.

[PolarPoint]

Satoshi can cash out his lesser known addresses without us noticing. As long as he doesn't cash out all his coins in a short period of time, then it's ok by me. They are his money, he has every right to do that.

[twister]

Satoshi can cash out his lesser known addresses without us noticing. As long as he doesn't cash out all his coins in a short period of time, then it's ok by me. They are his money, he has every right to do that.

So you think that he has other addresses that he mined coins to that we/others don't know about? Is that possible, if it is then you might be right.

[Enzyme]

Quote is from another thread but I'd rather not derail that one so I'm starting a new thread:

If he cashing out his bitcoin, he may exposure himself, his identity will be revealed, which he didn't like it. So I think he may never cashing out his bitcoin.

Why is it always assumed that Satoshi choosing to dump his coins would be immediately noticeable?

Satoshi was the first to mine and sometimes the only one mining in the very early days but others like Hal Finney were mining too. After 2010, many other people jumped aboard and started mining with their own PCs. Satoshi was still around on the forums until late 2010 and didn't disappear completely until 2011. If he had continued mining until then (and possibly even after 2010-2011) then it would be impossible to know whether it's Satoshi who is dumping his coins or just another early adopter. Someone who constantly mined on a PC with reasonable specs from 2010 onwards would still have made enough BTC to call themselves filthy rich.

I'm not doubting that Satoshi's earliest mined coins that were worth billions at one stage were left untouched but couldn't it be possible that he still sold a couple million dollars worth of BTC and is living the high life today?

Either way, it's noticeable.

Every transaction sent to and from his addresses are traceable and wouldn't even be mixable.

[monsanto]

I'm not doubting that Satoshi's earliest mined coins that were worth billions at one stage were left untouched but couldn't it be possible that he still sold a couple million dollars worth of BTC and is living the high life today?

The fact that his/their identified stash hasn't been moved makes the above scenario almost a certainty.

[kennenman]

Quote is from another thread but I'd rather not derail that one so I'm starting a new thread:

If he cashing out his bitcoin, he may exposure himself, his identity will be revealed, which he didn't like it. So I think he may never cashing out his bitcoin.

Why is it always assumed that Satoshi choosing to dump his coins would be immediately noticeable?

I'm not doubting that Satoshi's earliest mined coins that were worth billions at one stage were left untouched but couldn't it be possible that he still sold a couple million dollars worth of BTC and is living the high life today?

2 questions, answer for 1, it depends what wallets he dumps from people have most of them on watch with there eagle eye, of course he must of had other wallets people never knew about so hopefully he spent from them.

2, You would be right assuming he would have touched the early mined coins, unless he was already filthy rich of course is the only reason i see him not touching them but i am talking already multi millionaire.

He sold enough to live a good life this i am sure of that is why we here nothing more of him he is happy what he got from the game.

[Amph]

well he have over one million, unless he cash out few at time or it do it off market, it would be noticeable for sure, address ramification won't help anyway, because his coins are all starting from a single block of 50, it would be fairly easy to track back those

but the market should absorb even this big amount, actually it would help adoption, assuming that his coin are not lost, probably a reason why he didn't dump them yet...

[lucullus]

If he was cashing out in small amount but on frequent basis would we have known it's him that's doing it? There's always different ways and option on how to do it but still keeping his identity concealed. All these claims are just based on assumptions.

You can trace coins back to there original owner

[--Encrypted--]

If he was cashing out in small amount but on frequent basis would we have known it's him that's doing it? There's always different ways and option on how to do it but still keeping his identity concealed. All these claims are just based on assumptions.

You can trace coins back to there original owner

you mean to the original address, right?
I think satoshi (or anyone) can make himself untraceable with some work.

[bryant.coleman]

First of all the following questions needs to be answered:

1. Is Satoshi a single person, or a group of individuals?
2. In case he is a single individual, is he alive now?
3. Has he kept all those coins which he had mined in 2009, or has he thrown them away?
4. In case he is in the possession of the coins which he mined, how many coins he is having right now?
5. Has he lost any of his coins in the millions of Bitcoin-related scams? (such as Mt Gox).

[Dogtanian]

I'm pretty sure that there are a lot of people who are closely watching his known addresses for movement. Any movement would indicate that he is most likely back.
This could mean a lot of things. He'd be at risk if he does so.

Exactly. You can 'watch' addresses with blockchain.info so you'll immediately be notified if any coins get spent or even received so their movement would be noticed immediately. There would then be numerous people and individuals trying to track and trace the transactions. If he cashes out a possible link could be found there. I'm sure he's smart enough not to sell them on an exchange though.