Search Volume as a Forecasting Indicator

[ElectricMucus]

That graph is always one day behind, todays result should be available tomorrow.

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[adamstgBit]

can someone update that google search graph after today's Romney Effect?

I tried to check today's activity but google doesn't show today's results?

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0

I think the price rising is what is causing more Google searches, and not the other way around...

[Yuhfhrh]

can someone update that google search graph after today's Romney Effect?

I tried to check today's activity but google doesn't show today's results?

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0

I think the price rising is what is causing more Google searches, and not the other way around...

You don't think that they are intertwined?

[adamstgBit]

can someone update that google search graph after today's Romney Effect?

I tried to check today's activity but google doesn't show today's results?

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0

I think the price rising is what is causing more Google searches, and not the other way around...

You don't think that they are intertwined?

I do, But, Price effects Google searches, Google searches do not effect price

[Yuhfhrh]

can someone update that google search graph after today's Romney Effect?

I tried to check today's activity but google doesn't show today's results?

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0

I think the price rising is what is causing more Google searches, and not the other way around...

You don't think that they are intertwined?

I do, But, Price effects Google searches, Google searches do not effect price

Google searches= more people understand bitcoin= more people buy bitcoin= less supply= higher price?

If it wasn't for my google search, I would have never bought any bitcoins, and as a result the price would be a fraction lower.

[adamstgBit]

can someone update that google search graph after today's Romney Effect?

I tried to check today's activity but google doesn't show today's results?

http://www.google.com/trends/?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0

I think the price rising is what is causing more Google searches, and not the other way around...

You don't think that they are intertwined?

I do, But, Price effects Google searches, Google searches do not effect price

Google searches= more people understand bitcoin= more people buy bitcoin= less supply= higher price?

If it wasn't for my google search, I would have never bought any bitcoins, and as a result the price would be a fraction lower.

I see your point,

but you can imagine that when price is rising fast people search up bitcoin on Google a bit more.

I guess its abit of both, and Google searchers and bitcoin price truly are intertwined

[niko]

If you look at the graphs, you'll find that most of data clearly shows that changes in price do not follow changes in search volume, but it's the other way around. Increase in price usually predicts future increase in the search volume. I know it sounds stupid and boring, but that's the fact so far.

[S3052]

If you look at the graphs, you'll find that most of data clearly shows that changes in price do not follow changes in search volume, but it's the other way around. Increase in price usually predicts future increase in the search volume. I know it sounds stupid and boring, but that's the fact so far.

+1. this is exactly the way it works.

[Technomage]

That news is so big time. The BitInstant Debit card was the biggest news since Silk Road but this is something that could actually rival Silk Road press if there are further developments.

The interesting thing is that Bitcoin is actually the perfect currency for accepting ransom money. Accept cash and risk a meetup of some sort? Accept a bank transfer and risk being traced? A check? Everything else sucks compared to bitcoins.

There we have it, the new big thing for Bitcoin. Ransoms!

[Spekulatius]

@ myself: Do you know what blogs (number, area of interest, language, networks,..) are actually searched? Cant find any info on the page.

[cypherdoc]

can someone update that google search graph after today's Romney Effect?

http://trend.icerocket.com/trend?query1=bitcoin&days=30



http://trend.icerocket.com/trend?query1=bitcoin&label1=&query2=&label2=&query3=&label3=&query4=&label4=&query5=&label5=&days=90
there u have the romney effect





bitcoin   26.50   0.0018   795
EURUSD   63.17   0.0042   1,895
cryptocurrency   0.63   0.0000   19
USDJPY   38.30   0.0025   1,149
alternative currency   30.13   0.0020   904
http://trend.icerocket.com/trend?query1=bitcoin&label1=&query2=EURUSD&label2=&query3=cryptocurrency&label3=&query4=USDJPY&label4=&query5=alternative+currency&label5=&days=30

superb!  up we go!

[Technomage]

The Romney effect is starting to reach EPIC levels. Multiple mentions of Bitcoin on CNN TV. On top of that we have this article: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/06/politics/romney-tax-threat/index.html

Multiple paragraphs on Bitcoin. Already 4000 comments. It's time to post the rocket pictures, truly.

[FreeMoney]

If you look at the graphs, you'll find that most of data clearly shows that changes in price do not follow changes in search volume, but it's the other way around. Increase in price usually predicts future increase in the search volume. I know it sounds stupid and boring, but that's the fact so far.

+1. this is exactly the way it works.

YES exactly. Thanks for pointing this out. Tired of the ol' physics argument... it doesn't work for markets

That is how it worked in the past. But if a big media 'event' is sudden it can hit before corresponding price increase imo.

Also if the news is about the price increase it has to come after the increase and that's what a lot of the news was last time we had a ton of news.

[cypherdoc]

If you look at the graphs, you'll find that most of data clearly shows that changes in price do not follow changes in search volume, but it's the other way around. Increase in price usually predicts future increase in the search volume. I know it sounds stupid and boring, but that's the fact so far.

+1. this is exactly the way it works.

YES exactly. Thanks for pointing this out. Tired of the ol' physics argument... it doesn't work for markets

That is how it worked in the past. But if a big media 'event' is sudden it can hit before corresponding price increase imo.

Also if the news is about the price increase it has to come after the increase and that's what a lot of the news was last time we had a ton of news.

yes, there are no hard and fast rules.  these relationships can change.

[Raize]

According to that graph, EURUSD and USDJPY seem to tank in mention on the weekends.

[niko]

If you look at the graphs, you'll find that most of data clearly shows that changes in price do not follow changes in search volume, but it's the other way around. Increase in price usually predicts future increase in the search volume. I know it sounds stupid and boring, but that's the fact so far.

+1. this is exactly the way it works.

YES exactly. Thanks for pointing this out. Tired of the ol' physics argument... it doesn't work for markets

That is how it worked in the past. But if a big media 'event' is sudden it can hit before corresponding price increase imo.

Also if the news is about the price increase it has to come after the increase and that's what a lot of the news was last time we had a ton of news.

yes, there are no hard and fast rules.  these relationships can change.

Yes, and yes. That is why I included the cautionary "so far" in my conclusion.
Just hope that this thread will dispel the myth of increased search volume as a generally bullish sign. So far that has not been the case.
If we believe this busted myth, people will start buying in anticipation, thereby raising the price - a rather silly self-fulfilling prophecy that always fails in the long run (unless the fundamentals change in the meantime - completely unrelated).