Shorts on Bitfinex at a all time high!

[Tzupy]

A recording of the presumable glitch.

[molecular]

zoom in!

enhance!



shit! it's still just one data point. Another indication that it's a glitch.

[hellscabane]

This doesn't necessarily mean anything in terms of a price swing if financial duration isn't given.

For example, a currency swap market with high volumes of contracts but also high ModD would naturally be exposed to a lower level of volatility, but the same market with a low volume of contracts and low ModD would likely be prone to significant price swings.

[Chef Ramsay]

Yesterday there were huge spikes (now they are back to normal) in both BTC and USD swap rates, was it a glitch or is there some explanation?

I'm not sure, didn't see the swap market order books at the time.

They look healthy now with 2.4 kBTC and 2 million USD offered at "flash return" rate and more at higher, but still "reasonable" rates.

I'm having a hard time imagining those orderbooks being empty on the ask sides and people borrowing at 4% / 9% per day (as depicted on bfxdata). That'd be 1.6 million % / 45 trilliion % annualized !! So I'm guessing: glitch.

I don't see where this 4-9% interest per day is coming from when the swap rates are hovering around the .04% level. I'd love to have that higher interest on the coins I'm lending.

[molecular]

I don't see where this 4-9% interest per day is coming from when the swap rates are hovering around the .04% level. I'd love to have that higher interest on the coins I'm lending.

Those numbers come from bfxdata.com as seen in the graphs tzupy and I posted. They were recorded from bfx api by bfxdata.com site.

You're not going to get those rates. I'm assuming it was a glitch and noone really got them.

You can also assume that if someone indeed borrowed at such high rate, he would roll over into a more modest setup at the first chance (and there is now a "healthy" swap market with "normal" rates available as you can see in the 2 screenshots of the ask side I posted yesterday).

If someone offers you 9% per day, RUN! Even 7% per week (example taken from bitcoin savings and trust) should ring alarm bells.

[Morecoin Freeman]

It is happening!!

[Chalkbot]

How are the shorts holding up?

[molecular]

How are the shorts holding up?

quite well:



no squeezing on finex yet... not to be expected anyway. Just a $10 move so far.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

there's OKcoin but not too sure how they work

Their future markets seem to behave a bit funky these days, aren't they? I wouldn't be surprised if at least one Chinese exchange pulled a Gox, or at least a Stamp at some point this year or maybe next year.

Wouldn't that be bad for Bitcoin's price and another stain on the way it's percieved by the mainstream?

Yeah, that would be terrible, sure. But it wouldn't surprise me much. This is still very much 'amateur hour' like many people like to call it. We need more insured and regulated exchanges!

No wonder people are shorting...

not for a long time

[OgNasty]

Short % of Float

Bitcoin: 0.2%
Altria: 0.70%
Apple: 1.10%
Citigroup: 1.10%
Kraft Foods: 1.60%
Freeport-McMoRan: 5.30%
AT&T: 6.20%

[minerpumpkin]

How are the shorts holding up?

quite well:



no squeezing on finex yet... not to be expected anyway. Just a $10 move so far.

Ha, good to see there's still a lot of fuel in the rocket. I wonder whether a sizeable portion of those shorts get cold feet now and close their positions before they get margin called in a similar manner. Good to see this, for a change...

[nrd525]

Short % of Float

Bitcoin: 0.2%
Altria: 0.70%
Apple: 1.10%
Citigroup: 1.10%
Kraft Foods: 1.60%
Freeport-McMoRan: 5.30%
AT&T: 6.20%

Where do you get these statistics on regular stocks?

[tokeweed]

Lot's shorts were squeezed.  That's what they get for being impatient...  And being indecisive when it broke down 250.

[chriswilmer]

Short % of Float

Bitcoin: 0.2%
Altria: 0.70%
Apple: 1.10%
Citigroup: 1.10%
Kraft Foods: 1.60%
Freeport-McMoRan: 5.30%
AT&T: 6.20%

Most informative post I've read on Bitcointalk in ages. I had no idea so many people were shorting Apple! Where did you get this info?

[BayAreaCoins]

How are the shorts holding up?

quite well:



no squeezing on finex yet... not to be expected anyway. Just a $10 move so far.

$242-$245 I'd bet.

[molecular]

How are the shorts holding up?

quite well:



no squeezing on finex yet... not to be expected anyway. Just a $10 move so far.

$242-$245 I'd bet.

I'm thinking much higher ($320 to $350, maybe even higher), but that's totally unfounded in any rational thought.

[ensurance982]

Short % of Float

Bitcoin: 0.2%
Altria: 0.70%
Apple: 1.10%
Citigroup: 1.10%
Kraft Foods: 1.60%
Freeport-McMoRan: 5.30%
AT&T: 6.20%

Most informative post I've read on Bitcointalk in ages. I had no idea so many people were shorting Apple! Where did you get this info?

Yeah I was surprised by this, as well. I think people may be using a relatively low margin. I suspect AAPL to be quite overvalued for some time, already. Their rise just doesn't seem reasonable, especially concerning their quality apparently declining over the last couple of years.

[OgNasty]

Short % of Float

Bitcoin: 0.2%
Altria: 0.70%
Apple: 1.10%
Citigroup: 1.10%
Kraft Foods: 1.60%
Freeport-McMoRan: 5.30%
AT&T: 6.20%

Most informative post I've read on Bitcointalk in ages. I had no idea so many people were shorting Apple! Where did you get this info?

Yeah I was surprised by this, as well. I think people may be using a relatively low margin. I suspect AAPL to be quite overvalued for some time, already. Their rise just doesn't seem reasonable, especially concerning their quality apparently declining over the last couple of years.

Sorry for ignoring the questions about my source.  I don't check these threads often.

I get this data from the "Key Statistics" in a Yahoo Finance quote: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL+Key+Statistics

Lots of information can be gathered there.  You would be wise to check the debt amounts and return on assets amongst other things before investing in any stock.

As far as people saying that Apple is heavily shorted, if you look at the info provided, you'll see that Apple is actually not shorted very much.  1.1% is in line, or below what you would expect from a stock.  Freeport-McMoRan on the other hand, is being heavily shorted as sellers take advantage of falling crude prices.  Altria has a ridiculously low short % at 0.7% and Bitcoin's short % by comparison to stocks is outrageously low.  That was the point of my post.  I think we could see the short float go up by as much as 10x before it gets to point when it becomes dangerous.  I wouldn't think we'd see a true to the moon short squeeze unless we had a float of around 5%, or about 25x what it is currently...  However, this is assuming that bitfinex is the only place to short Bitcoin.  I suspect there are many other sites offering this as well, so it is quite possible the true Bitcoin short % of the float could be much higher, especially if you take into account the "lost bitcoins" that surely exist in high numbers.  Most regular people I send BTC to end up saying they deleted their wallet after not wanting to use Bitcoin anymore.  I can't tell you how many times I've heard, "it was only a couple dollars" as the reason why they didn't bother doing anything with the BTC before abandoning it.

That being said, Bitcoin is a little different, much more rare, harder to track, & less shorted due to it's nature.  In comparison to stocks, we have a long way to go if these numbers are accurate before a short squeeze is even a thought.  In comparison to other digital currencies    who knows.  Time will tell the story.

TL;DR

Only god knows how many BTC are truly in circulation or how many different sites allow shorting them, but a good guess is that short sellers aren't in the danger zone yet.

[NUFCrichard]

Short % of Float

Bitcoin: 0.2%
Altria: 0.70%
Apple: 1.10%
Citigroup: 1.10%
Kraft Foods: 1.60%
Freeport-McMoRan: 5.30%
AT&T: 6.20%

Most informative post I've read on Bitcointalk in ages. I had no idea so many people were shorting Apple! Where did you get this info?

Yeah I was surprised by this, as well. I think people may be using a relatively low margin. I suspect AAPL to be quite overvalued for some time, already. Their rise just doesn't seem reasonable, especially concerning their quality apparently declining over the last couple of years.

Apple is flying at the moment, the iPhone6 and 6+ sold massively moving them to a whole new level.
If I was going to short apple, it would be due to the apple watch, along with a lack of any new product in the last 5 years (other than the rubbish watch!)

Bitcoin shorting is a lot more dangerous than shorting apple though, the % swings in Apple are tiny in comparison to a big bitcoin move day!

[chriswilmer]

Short % of Float

Bitcoin: 0.2%
Altria: 0.70%
Apple: 1.10%
Citigroup: 1.10%
Kraft Foods: 1.60%
Freeport-McMoRan: 5.30%
AT&T: 6.20%

Most informative post I've read on Bitcointalk in ages. I had no idea so many people were shorting Apple! Where did you get this info?

Yeah I was surprised by this, as well. I think people may be using a relatively low margin. I suspect AAPL to be quite overvalued for some time, already. Their rise just doesn't seem reasonable, especially concerning their quality apparently declining over the last couple of years.

Sorry for ignoring the questions about my source.  I don't check these threads often.

I get this data from the "Key Statistics" in a Yahoo Finance quote: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AAPL+Key+Statistics

Lots of information can be gathered there.  You would be wise to check the debt amounts and return on assets amongst other things before investing in any stock.

As far as people saying that Apple is heavily shorted, if you look at the info provided, you'll see that Apple is actually not shorted very much.  1.1% is in line, or below what you would expect from a stock.  Freeport-McMoRan on the other hand, is being heavily shorted as sellers take advantage of falling crude prices.  Altria has a ridiculously low short % at 0.7% and Bitcoin's short % by comparison to stocks is outrageously low.  That was the point of my post.  I think we could see the short float go up by as much as 10x before it gets to point when it becomes dangerous.  I wouldn't think we'd see a true to the moon short squeeze unless we had a float of around 5%, or about 25x what it is currently...  However, this is assuming that bitfinex is the only place to short Bitcoin.  I suspect there are many other sites offering this as well, so it is quite possible the true Bitcoin short % of the float could be much higher, especially if you take into account the "lost bitcoins" that surely exist in high numbers.  Most regular people I send BTC to end up saying they deleted their wallet after not wanting to use Bitcoin anymore.  I can't tell you how many times I've heard, "it was only a couple dollars" as the reason why they didn't bother doing anything with the BTC before abandoning it.

That being said, Bitcoin is a little different, much more rare, harder to track, & less shorted due to it's nature.  In comparison to stocks, we have a long way to go if these numbers are accurate before a short squeeze is even a thought.  In comparison to other digital currencies    who knows.  Time will tell the story.

TL;DR

Only god knows how many BTC are truly in circulation or how many different sites allow shorting them, but a good guess is that short sellers aren't in the danger zone yet.

Thanks OgNasty. Very informative and educational post!