How could Pirate fuck your brains so well that even now many believe in him?

[el_rlee]

Bitcoin is supposed to be the most secure currency, but the way people handle it is like it's monopoly money.
I am surprised on how pro-pirate the atmosphere is still now, on Saturday without pirate paying out anybody.
-Matthew makes a bet about 10kBTC which seams a lot of money for him because he is sure that pirate will pay (and he is still confident at this moment)
-bids for TYGRR-P bonds still range >60% of face value, even with the issuer saying that pirate defaulted
-bitcoinmax accounts are still trading for >60% of their theoretical value
etc..

Is the human soul really made in way that makes it vulnerable for such scams by nature? I presume the pro-pirate users have a normal level of intelligence, so how could they get so brain-washed?
Did anybody follow the tony scam on SR? He fucked them over pretty nice in the forums, it also took some time for them to realize that there won't be anything arriving...

Stockholm syndrome as an explanation is not totally accurate IMHO.

[P4man]

Ive always assumed it to be a ponzi, but if anything, right now Im more inclined to believe pirate will somehow pay out than I was 2 weeks ago.

Why? Matthew might have ahmmm..  issues, but despite what he says, I dont believe he would really risk $100,000 on betting something that appears so unlikely, unless he knows something that we dont.
Bitlane is owed a fair chunk of money by pirate, but yesterday I saw he wanted to buy more debt (presumably, pirate debt). Is he nuts, or does he too now know something we dont?
GPUmax is still running and paying out every day.  

Lots of pirate backers have a large financial interest in everyone else assuming pirate will default, because it allows them to buy up pirate debt at a discount. Pirate might even be buying up his own debt at a discount through these proxies. So the fact he hasnt yet paid out, IMO says nothing.

What i do fear is that if pirate does pay up, it will be in very cheap coins, because I dont believe he could have made the profits that he promised, but perhaps he found a way to manipulate the value of btc that would allow him to pay out such sums in devalued coins. How? I have no idea, but to take an extreme example; assume he has been using his coins to fund some asic farm that has been mining a forked blockchain for a few months now, a chain now longer than the current blockchain. All he has to do is publish it and presto, he can pay out any amount of coins he wants. Im not saying I think thats whats happening, but something along those lines.

[el_rlee]

you're down the bitcoin rabbit hole way too deep. take a step back, look back in history, what is more likely to happen?

[istar]

And as I said in speculation. All it takes to bring value down to $1.25 is 370,000 Btc. In fact probably even way less as people panic on the way down.

Then buy lots of cheap coins at <$1 pay back the Bitcoins, profit and laugh.

[P4man]

And as I said in speculation. All it takes to bring value down to $1.25 is 370,000 Btc. In fact probably even way less as people panic on the way down.

Then buy lots of cheap coins at <$1 pay back the Bitcoins, profit and laugh.

It doesnt work like that. You can crash the price by selling that many coins, but you cant buy back even more coins later without the price shooting up again, way above the point you sold yours.

[el_rlee]

I would wish for Mr. Pirate to bring BTC down to such a value. I would buy loads of those cheap coins.

[Nubarius]

And as I said in speculation. All it takes to bring value down to $1.25 is 370,000 Btc. In fact probably even way less as people panic on the way down.

Then buy lots of cheap coins at <$1 pay back the Bitcoins, profit and laugh.

It doesnt work like that. You can crash the price by selling that many coins, but you cant buy back even more coins later without the price shooting up again, way above the point you sold yours.

Exactly. Pirate seems to have thought along the lines of istar's argument, basically expecting that by owning an insane amount of bitcoins he could bring the price down, make everybody panic and then buy cheaply. What he did't take into account was that there is an upward momentum in favour of Bitcoin as more and more people around the world learn about it and become interested. Any downward movement in the price finds the resistance of newcomers buying bitcoins and staunch believers in the long-term value of Bitcoin, like myself, who keep on buying. Besides, in order to give the crazy interest he promised, he'd have to eventually buy more bitcoins than he originally sold.

So my impression is that Pirate was basically betting that the selling panic he could cause in the market would be big enough to offset the subsequent appreciation when he came back to buy. He basically thought he could manipulate the market, took a huge gamble, and lost.

People believe him because they want to believe him. It's easier on one's ego to think that you're clever enough to invest in other clever people's business models than to accept that you've been duped by one of the silliest Ponzi schemes ever.

[bitcats]

Bitlane is owed a fair chunk of money by pirate, but yesterday I saw he wanted to buy more debt (presumably, pirate debt). Is he nuts, or does he too now know something we dont?

Didnt you know that Bitlane is one of Pirates sockpuppets? Hes very skillfully manipulating the market.

[markm]

And as I said in speculation. All it takes to bring value down to $1.25 is 370,000 Btc. In fact probably even way less as people panic on the way down.

Then buy lots of cheap coins at <$1 pay back the Bitcoins, profit and laugh.

It doesnt work like that. You can crash the price by selling that many coins, but you cant buy back even more coins later without the price shooting up again, way above the point you sold yours.

The Brits and Canucks discovered this, much to their surprise, when they tried to manipulate prices to achieve GBP parity for the UKB (United Kingdom Britcoin) and CAD parity for the CDN (Canadian Digital Note). Selling off coins cheap just ends up with everyone else holding the coins you sold, and the price climbing way above your target price again whenever you stop throwing away your coins. NKL (bitNicKeLs) also tried it to some extent, partly perhaps due to pressure from the Brits and Canadians arguing that maybe it was the rising price of bitNicKeLs, combined with people's tendency to think a nickel should be a twentieth of a something (whether 1/20 CDN, 1/20 UKB, or even 1/20 BTC), that was spoiling their attempts at keeping UKB and CDN from rising too high. It just doesn't seem to work...

-MarkM-

[el_rlee]

People believe him because they want to believe him. It's easier on one's ego to think that you're clever enough to invest in other clever people's business models than to accept that you've been duped by one of the silliest Ponzi schemes ever.

This might be it.

I read an interesting interview with a prison director. He said from all the prisoners the least comprehensible are the white-collar criminals. They always live in their own thought world were they find a million reasons why they are innocent and the other people are all wrong.
So maybe (probably?) we will find many users here finding some excuse of why pirate didn't pay even after weeks...

[Technomage]

It's actually common for ponzi scheme victims to believe that the money will be payed back years after the collapse.

In this case it would be strange because he isn't a real life character except for the people who met him at Vegas.

All he has is internet charisma, but I guess that can go a long way these days.

[salty]

The Brits and Canucks discovered this, much to their surprise, when they tried to manipulate prices to achieve GBP parity for the UKB (United Kingdom Britcoin) and CAD parity for the CDN (Canadian Digital Note). Selling off coins cheap just ends up with everyone else holding the coins you sold, and the price climbing way above your target price again whenever you stop throwing away your coins. NKL (bitNicKeLs) also tried it to some extent, partly perhaps due to pressure from the Brits and Canadians arguing that maybe it was the rising price of nitNicKeLs, combined with people's tendency to think a nickel should be a twentieth of a something (whether 1/20 CDN, 1/20 UKB, or even 1/20 BTC), that was spoiling their attempts at keeping UKB and CDN from rising too high. It just doesn't seem to work...

-MarkM-

Source?

[markm]

The Brits and Canucks discovered this, much to their surprise, when they tried to manipulate prices to achieve GBP parity for the UKB (United Kingdom Britcoin) and CAD parity for the CDN (Canadian Digital Note). Selling off coins cheap just ends up with everyone else holding the coins you sold, and the price climbing way above your target price again whenever you stop throwing away your coins. NKL (bitNicKeLs) also tried it to some extent, partly perhaps due to pressure from the Brits and Canadians arguing that maybe it was the rising price of nitNicKeLs, combined with people's tendency to think a nickel should be a twentieth of a something (whether 1/20 CDN, 1/20 UKB, or even 1/20 BTC), that was spoiling their attempts at keeping UKB and CDN from rising too high. It just doesn't seem to work...

-MarkM-

Source?

I don't have blow by blow archives from way back then; I only began keeping snapshots of historical data a while ago and only recently started making some quick and dirty scripts to put the data into HTML table form so I could look at it using a web browser. Its just a simple start, made actually for my own use so I can look at the numbers: http://galaxies.mygamesonline.org/digitalisassets.html

-MarkM-

[Herodes]

Is the human soul really made in way that makes it vulnerable for such scams by nature?

It appears so. The same thing we say about Pirate is the same thing we could say about many politicians around the world.

But do we know for a fact how much money was invested with Pirate ? I hear figures of 500K BTC, but I haven't seen conclusive evidence to this.

The moral aspect put aside, it must be nerve wrecking to live with the knowledge that if you only did a single mistake, or didn't hide all your tracks well, then suddenly one day there may be someone on your doorstep that will put an end to your misery. Not saying that I condone anything like that, or that I would like to see it happen, but if you fuck the wrong people over, they will not ask nicely to have you rectify the situation.

And the day it happens, it will be all over the news: "Killed over Pirate money". (No phun intended).

[salty]

I don't have blow by blow archives from way back then; I only began keeping snapshots of historical data a while ago and only recently started making some quick and dirty scripts to put the data into HTML table form so I could look at it using a web browser. Its just a simple start, made actually for my own use so I can look at the numbers: http://galaxies.mygamesonline.org/digitalisassets.html

-MarkM-

Cheers.

[Grinder]

But do we know for a fact how much money was invested with Pirate ? I hear figures of 500K BTC, but I haven't seen conclusive evidence to this.

We have no idea. The 500K is based on the last dividend calculation, but of course that includes a lot of compound interest. Schemes like this also usually have a lot of false accounts to give the impression that lots of people believe in it. The best real indication I have seen is this message from greyhawk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102107.msg1124122#msg1124122

So about 70 000. That may be a completely false lead, though, if they for instance have been put through MtGox.

[BitCoinsLOL]

 How did Pirate get some many people to give him BTC without revealing his so called method for promising 7% weekly returns. I'm sure plenty of people were willing to gamble with small amounts and not really mind losing knowing something aint kosher here. Those who invested larger amounts were doing it out of blind faith unless they knew Pirate. I feel alot of scams will be weeded out as time goes on because BTC is still in it's early stage. I hope Pirate pays back everyone and my belief is he/she will.

[DeathAndTaxes]

But do we know for a fact how much money was invested with Pirate ? I hear figures of 500K BTC, but I haven't seen conclusive evidence to this.

We have no idea. The 500K is based on the last dividend calculation, but of course that includes a lot of compound interest. Schemes like this also usually have a lot of false accounts to give the impression that lots of people believe in it. The best real indication I have seen is this message from greyhawk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102107.msg1124122#msg1124122

Also even if the 500K was accurate (although it would be more like 540,000 now due to another 8 days of interest) the ponzi has been running for months now.  
The amount of coins actual invested is obviously much less.   If may be 100K BTC were put at risk and the 540,000 BTC simply represents imaginary paper profits that simply never existed.

Since the amount deposited grew over time, and had withdraws finding out exactly how many coins were deposited would require access to the books but as a hypothetical example.

"Simple Example Ponzi"
100K deposited on day 0.  7% per week.  No withdrawals allowed for 12 weeks.

After 12 weeks the "value" of all deposits on paper is 225K however at no point did more than 100K BTC ever exist.  At best there is 100K BTC but if the Ponzi operator paid him some of that "profit" then the scheme would have less funds.  It shows the futility of buying ponzi assets for even 50% on face value because the face value is highly inflated.  In this hypothetical example the reality is every balance needs a 60% haircut just to get inline with reality.  The buyer is taking a risk so the selling price should be discounted not from the face value but the from real value (40% of face).  In a real ponzi where the operator is skimming off the top and some withdrawals are made the amount of coins available at the end (even if the operator decides to not steal them) is likely an even smaller fraction.  Maybe 10% of the face value.

[barbarousrelic]

I've got to admit I am a little embarrassed at the Bitcoin community's gullibility to such an obvious scam.

[markm]

I've got to admit I am a little embarrassed at the Bitcoin community's gullibility to such an obvious scam.

So basically never attribute to collusion that which can be passed off as ignorance / stupidity / foolishness / being a victim?

(Oh look, a ponzi! Better get in quick, get my capital out fast, and make sure to suck in lots of other people who if they follow me in fast enough might even also manage to turn a profit on it... Oh, wait, almost forgot, pretend I didn't recognise it as a ponzi!)

-MarkM-

[barbarousrelic]

I've got to admit I am a little embarrassed at the Bitcoin community's gullibility to such an obvious scam.

So basically never attribute to collusion that which can be passed off as ignorance / stupidity / foolishness / being a victim?

(Oh look, a ponzi! Better get in quick, get my capital out fast, and make sure to suck in lots of other people who if they follow me in fast enough might even also manage to turn a profit on it... Oh, wait, almost forgot, pretend I didn't recognise it as a ponzi!)

-MarkM-

For a small number of people to profit from the collusion you suggest requires a much larger number of ignorant/stupid/foolish victims.

[markm]

I wonder if the tale about students specifically taught about bubbles is just an urban myth?

A bubble is just a ponzi really isn't it, other possibly than the "deliberate act of fraud" aspect. (A ponzi is a deliberate bubble, often accompanied by fraud?)

Supposedly the students acted totally against the intent of the lesson; in effect the lesson they took from it was get in quick before it is too late to profit, instead of do not get in because it might already be too late to profit.

Basically the fools who lose are colluders who were too late to profit that time around. Entire communities of afficionados form, all trying to make sure they get in on the next one quicker so hopefully they won't be too late next time around.

Sure there can be "innocents" out in the wild somewhere. But the people on these forums weren't them, the people here were fully informed. The innocents are those who were not yet part of the bubble-blowing community; some of them might decide next time they need to get in quicker.

Maybe people who are too slow getting in too many times eventually get bitter, its not right those quick young snips getting profit just because they are quick, racing should be banned, blah blah blah. (Yeah I am being snarky-cynical now.)

("Economic Man" = Rational Psychopath?)

-MarkM-

[hazek]

People generally aren't being taught to use reason and evidence, in large part thanks to public education, and so can easily fall prey to fraud.

It's really that simple.

[justusranvier]

Is the human soul really made in way that makes it vulnerable for such scams by nature?

No, it is not.

The reason we know that humans aren't naturally vulnerable is because society must spend a great deal of time and effort indoctrinating children with propaganda, bribes and threats in order to make them believe various myths.

Observing the behavior of people who have been through cultural indoctrination and making inferrences about human nature based on their behavior makes as much sense as looking at someone who just got hit by a car and using their injured condition to make inferrences about human physical capabilities. "I guess humans are non-ambulatory by nature because this one can't seem to walk."

[el_rlee]

Gauging by the trades of TYGRR.BOND-P on GLBSE I would say that most people which believed in pirate and therefore bought the stock still do. The volume running so far is small.

Maybe 10% of the face value.

Seams buyers think 0.32BTC, so 32% of face value. Sellers order book starts at 0.53 - if you want to buy > 1000pc you need pay almost the full price. Not much discount in light of the current circumstances.

[Nefario]

I've got to admit I am a little embarrassed at the Bitcoin community's gullibility to such an obvious scam.

So basically never attribute to collusion that which can be passed off as ignorance / stupidity / foolishness / being a victim?

(Oh look, a ponzi! Better get in quick, get my capital out fast, and make sure to suck in lots of other people who if they follow me in fast enough might even also manage to turn a profit on it... Oh, wait, almost forgot, pretend I didn't recognise it as a ponzi!)

-MarkM-

For a small number of people to profit from the collusion you suggest requires a much larger number of ignorant/stupid/foolish victims.

In Ireland (maybe elsewhere) we have this thing called "The bigger fool" theory, the idea being you would always be able to sell your house for more than you got it (never mind the price you paid) as long as there was a bigger fool to come along and buy it.

It wasn't until well after the crash (house prices collapsed) that Irish people stopped thinking house prices would grow forever.

It's not like the information wasn't there, just that people chose to ignore it because they were greedy, and got what they deserved.

[muyuu]

I've got to admit I am a little embarrassed at the Bitcoin community's gullibility to such an obvious scam.

Any big community will have a number of fools, no need to be embarrassed by them.

[Tomatocage]

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

[fcmatt]

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

Ponzi operators often have ego, draw things out as long as possible to wear down people, and try to fade away without reprecussions once they see where wind is blowing...

[BobbyJo]

The issue isnt Pirate bailing with the money.  The issue is that the money never existed and everyone is sitting around waiting to be paid out funds thats are not there!

[Piper67]

The issue isnt Pirate bailing with the money.  The issue is that the money never existed and everyone is sitting around waiting to be paid out funds thats are not there!

Precisely! There never was 500k BTC in an actual wallet somewhere. There were promises, ledgers, calculations and all other forms of ideas, but not half a million bitcoins.

[P4man]

The issue isnt Pirate bailing with the money.  The issue is that the money never existed and everyone is sitting around waiting to be paid out funds thats are not there!

Precisely! There never was 500k BTC in an actual wallet somewhere. There were promises, ledgers, calculations and all other forms of ideas, but not half a million bitcoins.

This close enough for you?
https://blockchain.info/address/1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM

[mobodick]

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

Do you know pirate has not spoken for 23 hours?

[Bascule]

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

This is exactly what the OP was talking about. If pirate made a post saying "It was a ponzi scheme" Tomatocage would still think he's getting his money back.

[el_rlee]

Stating the obvious: pirate payed his interest so far, regularly and punctually. The amount in each account didn't take more than a week to calculate until now.

I often read that people say something like 'yeah, he might not have all the BTC right now, but he will play the markets and come up with it'.

Assuming that pirates ID known to the forum isn't a fake and that the one showing up in Vegas was really him I would say that he himself has a strong believe in the 'system' he is/was running. Probably he had only best intentions when he started and really believed he could gamble this interest out of the market. Bitcoin fluctuates enough to make one % each and every day if you are only skilled enough. Or maybe if you would only have enough funds to control the price.
Turns out: nope, not so easy. The thing grew over his head, more and more juggling with the funds until it finally collapsed. I guess he is far from the maximum profit he would been able to make if he would have plotted this as a criminal enterprise from the beginning.
Lacking of funds means more risk gets taken to make good for the losses, etc. The rest is often written history.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Stating the obvious: pirate payed his interest so far, regularly and punctually. The amount in each account didn't take more than a week to calculate until now.

I often read that people say something like 'yeah, he might not have all the BTC right now, but he will play the markets and come up with it'.

Assuming that pirates ID known to the forum isn't a fake and that the one showing up in Vegas was really him I would say that he himself has a strong believe in the 'system' he is/was running. Probably he had only best intentions when he started and really believed he could gamble this interest out of the market. Bitcoin fluctuates enough to make one % each and every day if you are only skilled enough. Or maybe if you would only have enough funds to control the price.
Turns out: nope, not so easy. The thing grew over his head, more and more juggling with the funds until it finally collapsed. I guess he is far from the maximum profit he would been able to make if he would have plotted this as a criminal enterprise from the beginning.
Lacking of funds means more risk gets taken to make good for the losses, etc. The rest is often written history.

That is pretty common in ponzi schemes.  Madoff for example ran a traditional hedge fund for for well over two decades until he made some really bad trades.  Fearing his clients would move their money he faked trades for the quarter.  Of course now he essentially had "juice" running on the difference between the real books and the fake books.   As investors continued to expect returns on the fake numbers that difference required him to fake trades qtr after qtr.  Eventually he reached the point he could no longer "go legit" if he wanted to.   He was committed to the ponzi because deviaiton from it would get him caught.   Of course no ponzi can continue forever but he was "stuck" so he played it well and kept the ponzi cashflow + (more coming in than paying out) for years.  Had the economic downturn not spooked investors he might still be paying out dividends regularly but they would be fake and eventually something would have caused the ponzi to fail.

Madoff offered ~11% per year.  Pirate offered 7% per week.  Pretty obvious why one imploded much faster than the other.

[conspirosphere.tk]

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

Do you know pirate has not spoken for 23 hours?

...and he could do it liberally from any place in the world, just for more lulz.

[el_rlee]

Madoff offered ~11% per year.  Pirate offered 7% per week.  Pretty obvious why one imploded much faster than the other.

Neither of them ever came up with a balance sheet.

[cryptoanarchist]

+1 to the title of this thread   

[AndrewBUD]

Pirate is buying all the assets back..... Once he has purchased enough of them back he will have the coins to pay back the bigger investors... .



All the big lenders are buying back pirate assets......... inside trading screwing the masses..... ( just what I think )

[labestiol]

That is pretty common in ponzi schemes.  Madoff for example ran a traditional hedge fund for for well over two decades until he made some really bad trades.  Fearing his clients would move their money he faked trades for the quarter.  Of course now he essentially had "juice" running on the difference between the real books and the fake books.   As investors continued to expect returns on the fake numbers that difference required him to fake trades qtr after qtr.  Eventually he reached the point he could no longer "go legit" if he wanted to.   He was committed to the ponzi because deviaiton from it would get him caught.   Of course no ponzi can continue forever but he was "stuck" so he played it well and kept the ponzi cashflow + (more coming in than paying out) for years.  Had the economic downturn not spooked investors he might still be paying out dividends regularly but they would be fake and eventually something would have caused the ponzi to fail.

I agree he was probably not thinking about going ponzi from the start.
My favorite hypothesis is that pirate was shorting bitcoins, and it was working great at the beginning. Then the market recovered, and he doubled down as much as he could. Not the fanciest theory, but would make so much sense...

[unclescrooge]

No it doesn't not make much sense, price has been going up since his beginning of btcst

[labestiol]

No it doesn't not make much sense, price has been going up since his beginning of btcst

From what i know, he began borrowing coins around a year ago. Then what does a degenerate overconfident gambler would do when his bet goes bad ? double down.

EDIT : what do you think about that post ?

[muyuu]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization

[bitlane]

......... Bitlane ...... sockpuppet ? ........

Unfortunately this is my ONLY forum account. Back during the 'BitcoinXpress' battle, I asked theymos to confirm it and he did.

I don't use TOR, I don't attempt to hide my identity from anyone and I happily sleep with my front door unlocked, as I have very little to fear.

I therefore am NO ONE'S sockpuppet. I currently have a personal interest in things, the same as most others and am simply 'enjoying the ride'.....

[ldrgn]

A bubble is just a ponzi really isn't it, other possibly than the "deliberate act of fraud" aspect. (A ponzi is a deliberate bubble, often accompanied by fraud?)

Wat? A ponzi doesn't do any investing, it just pays out customer deposits.  A bubble has real economic activity and investing but the economic activity is unsustainable.  I don't get how the two are comparable.  When the ponzi collapses all of the later investors lose everything but when a bubble collapses late investors still have a real asset that can at least return something (just not much).  Am I missing the forest for the trees?  Why do you qualify the end of your quote with "often accompanied with fraud"? When is a ponzi not fraud?

[Cluster2k]

How did Pirate get some many people to give him BTC without revealing his so called method for promising 7% weekly returns. I'm sure plenty of people were willing to gamble with small amounts and not really mind losing knowing something aint kosher here.

That's part of the time honoured ponzi formula.  Claim you have a new method to generate massive returns.  A proprietary space age trading system in the cloud, leveraging world events while hedging against all risk.  Or something like that.  It's different this time.  I'm breaking all the rules.  People fall for that all the time.

Why do people hand over massive amounts of money to essentially anonymous businesses?  Why do pensioners hand over their life savings to slick operations only to see it being lost, time and time again?  Slick marketing and the target's greed.  Many people don't realise that generating a guaranteed 7% return after inflation per annum is quite difficult.  Pirate was offering 7% a week.  Alarm bells anyone?

Its been almost a week since Pirate promised to start making full payments to his clients.  How's that going?  If he was paying out interest from trading activities then he should have had all bitcoins required to pay out immediately.

[AndrewBUD]

It'll take a while to buy those assets back >30%

[DanielVG]

pi·rate   [pahy-ruht] noun, verb, pi·rat·ed, pi·rat·ing.
noun
1.
a person who robs or commits illegal violence at sea or on the shores of the sea.
2.
a ship used by such persons.
3.
any plunderer, predator, etc.: confidence men, slumlords, and other pirates.



seems pretty obvious to me....

[muyuu]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization

Even better http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment

Escalation of commitment was first described by Barry M. Staw in his 1976 paper, "Knee deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action".[1] More recently the term "sunk cost fallacy" has been used to describe the phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the cost, starting today, of continuing the decision outweighs the expected benefit. Such investment may include money, time, or — in the case of military strategy — human lives. The phenomenon and the sentiment underlying it are reflected in such proverbial images as "Throwing good money after bad" and "In for a dime, in for a dollar" (or "In for a penny, in for a pound").
The term is also used to describe poor decision-making in business, government, information systems in general, software project management in particular, politics, and gambling. The term has been used to describe the United States commitment to military conflicts including Vietnam in the 1960s - 1970s and in Iraq in the 2000s, where dollars spent and lives lost justify continued involvement.[2]
Alternatively, "irrational escalation" (sometimes referred to as "irrational escalation of commitment" or "commitment bias") is a term frequently used in psychology, philosophy, economics, and game theory[citation needed] to refer to a situation in which people can make irrational decisions based upon rational decisions in the past or to justify actions already taken. Examples are frequently seen when parties engage in a bidding war; the bidders can end up paying much more than the object is worth to justify the initial expenses associated with bidding (such as research), as well as part of a competitive instinct.
[edit]Examples

The dollar auction is a thought exercise demonstrating the concept.
After a heated and aggressive bidding war, Robert Campeau ended up buying Bloomingdale's for an estimated 600 million dollars more than it was worth. The Wall Street Journal noted that "we're not dealing in price anymore but egos." Campeau was forced to declare bankruptcy soon afterwards.[3]

[el_rlee]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization

Even better http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment

not to forget a lot of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

[Herodes]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-purchase_rationalization

Even better http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment

not to forget a lot of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

What should we do without wikipedia ?

[nazgulnarsil]

this whole episode is really quite brilliant.  Pirate played a ponzi scheme COMPLETELY STRAIGHT.  It's like he followed a textbook for ponzi schemes.  He even exaggerated everything, he called himself a type of robber and offered more ridiculous returns than are possible.  And everyone STILL fell for it.

He deserves the money IMO.

[AndrewBUD]

LOL ^

[uuidman]

How did Pirate get some many people to give him BTC without revealing his so called method for promising 7% weekly returns. I'm sure plenty of people were willing to gamble with small amounts and not really mind losing knowing something aint kosher here.

That's part of the time honoured ponzi formula.  Claim you have a new method to generate massive returns.  A proprietary space age trading system in the cloud, leveraging world events while hedging against all risk.  Or something like that.  It's different this time.  I'm breaking all the rules.  People fall for that all the time.

Why do people hand over massive amounts of money to essentially anonymous businesses?  Why do pensioners hand over their life savings to slick operations only to see it being lost, time and time again?  Slick marketing and the target's greed. 

Indeed, but regarding what he was doing, there have been some longtimers saying that they now know what his business model are and that its really clever.  Hopefully they will soon reveal it. I am curious. I guess that it in itself tipped some over to invest. I did not.

[AndrewBUD]

I hope you're right.... ^ only time will tell..... but if it's true he passed a bad cheque in the past and now he has 1million+ dollars..... seems iffy to me......


Good luck to all and I hope everything works out for the better....

[DeathAndTaxes]

The debt continuing to accrue interest and I expect a full reconciliation to be made.

LOLZ.  

Pirate debt has increased by 52,303 BTC* just in the period of time since he ended the operation.  That is $549,270 at current exchange rates.  Even if he was profitable and could afford the interest obligation while operating, since shutting down he racked up another half million in debt.  In another five days he will have racked up over a million USD in additional debt since the shutdown.  His interest only obligation is now $57,993 per day or $40.27 per minute.

All that ignores the fact that the debt is legally unenforceable (violates usary laws in the US) and that BTC can be hidden from a judgement with trivial ease.  So the debtor can't be collected against and has 40 new reasons every minute to walk away.  Of course that even assume he could pay if he wanted to but it is increasingly obviously he can't.  Even if he could only pay say half doing so would save him almost $30,000 per day in additional interest yet he hasn't.  

So please, humor me I am just curious at which point will you no longer "expect a full reconciliation to be made"?  Another week (when he now owes ~$6.3 mil USD), another month (when he owes ~ $8.2 mil USD), 180 days (when he owes ~$46 mil USD)?



* Based on the claim by Pirate that the "trust" had 500K BTC when he shut it down.

[el_rlee]

others seam more confident:

I guess Ill throw mine up for sale too, PM if interested:
(User #269 of 373)      Balance: 44.40847487      Next Payment: 3.06418477

Ill take 40btc for it. OBO

(User #229 of 373)      Balance: 562.18232401      Next Payment: 38.79058036

Looking for 350+. PM if interested.

I'll sell mine for 900ish.  PM me any offers

(User #71 of 373)      Balance: 1184.04269172      Next Payment: 81.68066151

Since I need the coins sooner rather than later:

Anyone want to buy my account?
(User #114 of 373)      Balance: 390.30038379   Next Payment: 26.93072648

I'll consider offers from 300 upwards.

If you are insterested PM me please.

damn tempting offers!

[P4man]

hehehehe..


These are the only facts I need to hear to make a sane educated guess as to the outcome...

Simple math will answer this one easily...  

Id does make a very important implicit assumption; that BTC value will remain more or less stable. If Prirate's big secret is that he hacked sha256 or has been mining a forked chain on asics for half a year, that assumption might be very wrong.

[teflone]

others seam more confident:

I guess Ill throw mine up for sale too, PM if interested:
(User #269 of 373)      Balance: 44.40847487      Next Payment: 3.06418477

Ill take 40btc for it. OBO

(User #229 of 373)      Balance: 562.18232401      Next Payment: 38.79058036

Looking for 350+. PM if interested.

I'll sell mine for 900ish.  PM me any offers

(User #71 of 373)      Balance: 1184.04269172      Next Payment: 81.68066151

Since I need the coins sooner rather than later:

Anyone want to buy my account?
(User #114 of 373)      Balance: 390.30038379   Next Payment: 26.93072648

I'll consider offers from 300 upwards.

If you are insterested PM me please.

damn tempting offers!

Confidence is overwhelming!

[el_rlee]

hehehehe..


These are the only facts I need to hear to make a sane educated guess as to the outcome...

Simple math will answer this one easily...  

Id does make a very important implicit assumption; that BTC value will remain more or less stable. If Prirate's big secret is that he hacked sha256 or has been mining a forked chain on asics for half a year, that assumption might be very wrong.

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

[matthewh3]

The debt continuing to accrue interest and I expect a full reconciliation to be made.

LOLZ.  

Pirate debt has increased by 52,303 BTC* just in the period of time since he ended the operation.  That is $549,270 at current exchange rates.  Even if he was profitable and could afford the interest obligation while operating, since shutting down he racked up another half million in debt.  In another five days he will have racked up over a million USD in additional debt since the shutdown.  His interest only obligation is now $57,993 per day or $40.27 per minute.

All that ignores the fact that the debt is legally unenforceable (violates usary laws in the US) and that BTC can be hidden from a judgement with trivial ease.  So the debtor can't be collected against and has 40 new reasons every minute to walk away.  Of course that even assume he could pay if he wanted to but it is increasingly obviously he can't.  Even if he could only pay say half doing so would save him almost $30,000 per day in additional interest yet he hasn't.  

So please, humor me I am just curious at which point will you no longer "expect a full reconciliation to be made"?  Another week (when he now owes ~$6.3 mil USD), another month (when he owes ~ $8.2 mil USD), 180 days (when he owes ~$46 mil USD)?



* Based on the claim by Pirate that the "trust" had 500K BTC when he shut it down.

hehehehe..


These are the only facts I need to hear to make a sane educated guess as to the outcome...

Simple math will answer this one easily...   

Pirate did say within two weeks I think to wind it down and it is just the ending of the first week.  Maybe Pirate had those two weeks interest payments tailored into his shut down plan accounted for.  If he doesn't honour his two week timetable or comes out with more excuses for time well then people should start to really worry.

[P4man]

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

You can do an asic design for considerably less than 500K btc and all it takes is 10 year old cmos technology. No aliens needed.

[markm]

Pirate did say within two weeks I think to wind it down and it is just the ending of the first week.  Maybe Pirate had those two weeks interest payments tailored into his shut down plan accounted for.  If he doesn't honour his two week timetable or comes out with more excuses for time well then people should start to really worry stretch to come up with excuses.

FTFY

-MarkM-

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

[Vladimir]

It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

This is simply a result of sudden silence (almost) of shills. They are not paid for working weekends or something? Or not paid anymore at all maybe?

[bitcoinBull]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Which day please?

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Which day please?

I can't remember the ins-and-outs of the bet.  Ask "Vladimir" he was the one who made it with him.

[bitcoinBull]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Which day please?

I can't remember the ins-and-outs of the bet.  Ask "Vladimir" he was the one who made it with him.

You mean Vandroiy.

[el_rlee]

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

You can do an asic design for considerably less than 500K btc and all it takes is 10 year old cmos technology. No aliens needed.

hm...

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Which day please?

I can't remember the ins-and-outs of the bet.  Ask "Vladimir" he was the one who made it with him.

You mean Vandroiy.

Yes maybe 

[dust]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

Some people will try to win a bet at any costs.  Even if it means shooting yourself in the foot.  To win a bet and keep face means a lot more than the prize of the bet to many a man.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

Some people will try to win a bet at any costs.  Even if it means shooting yourself in the foot.  To win a bet and keep face means a lot more than the prize of the bet to many a man.

What are you talking about.  If Pirate pays everyone back he wins the bet.  He could have won the bet already by paying everyone back on Friday.

[P4man]

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

No, he would only need to generate 51% of all blocks to be able to repay all his debt with 1BTC. 51% with asics is fairly trivial right now.

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

Some people will try to win a bet at any costs.  Even if it means shooting yourself in the foot.  To win a bet and keep face means a lot more than the prize of the bet to many a man.

What are you talking about.  If Pirate pays everyone back he wins the bet.  He could have won the bet already by paying everyone back on Friday.

I didn't think the default date had passed.  Anyway I'm not loosing much sleep over it.  I only had BTC5.00 in a PPT and made more than the principle in interest payments.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

You can do an asic design for considerably less than 500K btc and all it takes is 10 year old cmos technology. No aliens needed.

hm...

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

I would also point out that was as of the day he shut down.   He owes closed to 550K BTC (and 5.5K BTC per day in interest) today.  In a month he will owe ~723K BTC and daily interest will be more than the number of coins minted each day. 

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

Some people will try to win a bet at any costs.  Even if it means shooting yourself in the foot.  To win a bet and keep face means a lot more than the prize of the bet to many a man.

What are you talking about.  If Pirate pays everyone back he wins the bet.  He could have won the bet already by paying everyone back on Friday.

I didn't think the default date had passed.

Pirate wins if he repays.  He doesn't need to wait 2 weeks to win the bet.  He wins if he repaid on Friday.  He wins if he repays today.  The sooner he repays he not only still wins but he saves himself half a million in extra interest per week.

[matthewh3]

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

You can do an asic design for considerably less than 500K btc and all it takes is 10 year old cmos technology. No aliens needed.

hm...

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

I would also point out that was as of the day he shut down.   He owes closed to 550K BTC (and 5.5K BTC per day in interest) today.  In a month he will owe ~723K BTC and daily interest will be more than the number of coins minted each day. 

In a month is three weeks after Pirate repay date.  So I don't think anyone will be expecting to be paid.

[Vladimir]

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

No, he would only need to generate 51% of all blocks to be able to repay all his debt with 1BTC. 51% with asics is fairly trivial right now.

to what ends?

http://gavintech.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/neutralizing-51-attack.html
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Attacks#Attacker_has_a_lot_of_computing_power

If a 51% attacker stopped including all broadcast transactions in blocks "we" would quickly figure out a rule or rules to reject their blocks.

Something like "ignore a longer chain orphaning the current best chain if the sum(priorities of transactions included in new chain) is much less than sum(priorities of transactions in the part of the current best chain that would be orphaned)" would mean a 51% attacker would have to have both lots of hashing power AND lots of old, high-priority bitcoins to keep up a transaction-denial-of-service attack. And they'd pretty quickly run out of old, high-priority bitcoins and would be forced to either include other people's transactions or have their chain rejected.

I'm tempted to code that up and run some tests on a testnet-in-a-box, but there are much higher priority things on my TODO list; I don't think a 51% attack is likely. You'd spend a lot of time and money on an attack that "we" would neuter within a day or two.

Basically 51% attack is going to be a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Even I under such circumstances would likely get some dry power into exchanges and buy me some bitcoins (for the first time ever).

[DeathAndTaxes]

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

No, he would only need to generate 51% of all blocks to be able to repay all his debt with 1BTC. 51% with asics is fairly trivial right now.

You keep making these claims.  51% attack doesn't allow you to spend coins which are not yours. So while in theory he could technically repay investors by stealing from them in a 51% attack you couldn't do it with 1 BTC.   He would need 550K BTC today and that number is continually increasing by 4 BTC per minute.

[matthewh3]

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

No, he would only need to generate 51% of all blocks to be able to repay all his debt with 1BTC. 51% with asics is fairly trivial right now.

You keep making these claims.  51% attack doesn't allow you to spend coins which are not yours. So while in theory he could technically repay investors by stealing from them in a 51% attack you couldn't do it with 1 BTC.   He would need 550K BTC today and that number is continually increasing by 4 BTC per minute.

I thought he dropped his interest rates and never allowed compounding?

Edit: drank two litres of Tyskie so maybe I need a calculator 

[c0in$]

I will take dollar denominated bets in Gox USD that pirate repays within 10 days using a willing trusted and reputable escrow only (someone like Vladimir, even though he is of a different opinion).  You win if Pirate does not repay within 10 days.  PM if interested and we can set it up and determine odds.

[el_rlee]

We would notice if the 51% is happening I guess. Is that the most probable scenario for pirate paying back his debt?
Any reason on what the waiting is good for? I guess he is just thorough checking his spreadsheet over and over again?

I will take dollar denominated bets in Gox USD that pirate repays within 10 days using a willing trusted and reputable escrow only (someone like Vladimir, even though he is of a different opinion).  You win if Pirate does not repay within 10 days.  PM if interested and we can set it up and determine odds.

if you agree that both parties come up with the funds up front I would love to get in a bet with you. I guess many regret of not betting Matthew for more money.
Which sum were you thinking about?

Edit: Just to make sure you don't blame me of 'insider knowledge' later I'll share a secret with you: The ponzi already collapsed

[vuce]

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

No, he would only need to generate 51% of all blocks to be able to repay all his debt with 1BTC. 51% with asics is fairly trivial right now.

For someone with 2700+ posts you know very little about bitcoin.

[Ocean6]

more info on this cat:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101958.200

pg 11

[P4man]

You keep making these claims.  51% attack doesn't allow you to spend coins which are not yours. So while in theory he could technically repay investors by stealing from them in a 51% attack you couldn't do it with 1 BTC.   He would need 550K BTC today and that number is continually increasing by 4 BTC per minute.

Of course its theoretical, but he could spend the same coin 500K times and technically have "paid everyone back".
Anyway, this whole 51% thing is side tracking from the real topic. I just wanted to point out today is no different from 2 weeks ago, and if you believe pirate is for real, denoting his debt in dollars is possibly misleading.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Well it is different in that he owes ~10% more than he did 10 days ago.  Even if it is is his goal to reduce the value of BTC to repay investors that becomes more difficult as the amount he owes rises.

[bitcoiners]

Pirate did say within two weeks I think to wind it down and it is just the ending of the first week.  Maybe Pirate had those two weeks interest payments tailored into his shut down plan accounted for.  If he doesn't honour his two week timetable or comes out with more excuses for time well then people should start to really worry.

No he said within a week.  Not two.  And I quote.

Starting Monday I’ll begin systematically closing and withdrawing accounts as coins are transferred.  I don't expect the entire process to last longer than a week.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg605957#msg605957

So by tomorrow (Monday) everyone should see their coins + interest to the minute.  Think he'll default on his own deadline?  I'm willing to bet on it.

[finkleshnorts]

Does anyone have anything to say to the fact that the website for Pirate's IRL business (buscog.com) was taken down the same day he closed BTCST?

[bitcoiners]

Does anyone have anything to say to the fact that the website for Pirate's IRL business (buscog.com) was taken down the same day he closed BTCST?

Team Ponzi:  "It's just a coincidence."
Everyone else living in the real world just realized their BTC is gone for good.

[justusranvier]

It's actually common for ponzi scheme victims to believe that the money will be payed back years after the collapse.

I think some people are going to go to their deathbeds expecting to see their eleventy trillion bitcoins of accrued interest to show up "any day now".

[bitcoiners]

Taken just this moment in #btcst IRC.

[Ocean6]

release the hounds

[imsaguy]

Taken just this moment in #btcst IRC.

That's the last time he publicly spoke in the channel as pirateat40 that gribble saw.  In addition, gribble was queried in private by matthew and the copy/paste has no timedate.

[JoelKatz]

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

In what sense is he not long gone?

[bitcoiners]

If Pirate was going to bail with the money, dude would be long gone by now.

In what sense is he not long gone?

Lol, seriously.  He could be posting from a beach in Central America right now for all anyone knows.  People are way to gullible. 

[ElMoIsEviL]

Bitcoin is supposed to be the most secure currency, but the way people handle it is like it's monopoly money.
I am surprised on how pro-pirate the atmosphere is still now, on Saturday without pirate paying out anybody.
-Matthew makes a bet about 10kBTC which seams a lot of money for him because he is sure that pirate will pay (and he is still confident at this moment)
-bids for TYGRR-P bonds still range >60% of face value, even with the issuer saying that pirate defaulted
-bitcoinmax accounts are still trading for >60% of their theoretical value
etc..

Is the human soul really made in way that makes it vulnerable for such scams by nature? I presume the pro-pirate users have a normal level of intelligence, so how could they get so brain-washed?
Did anybody follow the tony scam on SR? He fucked them over pretty nice in the forums, it also took some time for them to realize that there won't be anything arriving...

Stockholm syndrome as an explanation is not totally accurate IMHO.

Same thing that took over American Homeowners during the boom or Financiers during the roaring 20s... Greed. People with less knowledge often get caught up in these schemes. I mean look at how many will chance sending money to a "Nigerian Prince" expecting to receive millions in return? I am skeptical by nature (critical thinker). And perhaps you are as well (it would seem so for sure). The majority of the population are not critical thinkers, they're Optimists. They see everything from the "positive" side because they can't deal with the harsh realities of the world they live in.

They're the people who enjoy Katy Perry, Justin Bieber etc music (mind numbing, repetitive, devoid of any useful message etc). They bob their heads to the music blissfully unaware of the impending Financial Meltdown just around the corner (and subsequent fall of the American Empire). They just like hearing "Love you, Love love love, beauty, sunshine rainbows, life is perfect blah blah blah".

Do I sound disgruntled enough? That's reality  

[keystroke]

Same thing that took over American Homeowners during the boom or Financiers during the roaring 20s... Greed. People with less knowledge often get caught up in these schemes. I mean look at how many will chance sending money to a "Nigerian Prince" expecting to receive millions in return? I am skeptical by nature (critical thinker). And perhaps you are as well (it would seem so for sure). The majority of the population are not critical thinkers, they're Optimists. They see everything from the "positive" side because they can't deal with the harsh realities of the world they live in.

They're the people who enjoy Katy Perry, Justin Bieber etc music (mind numbing, repetitive, devoid of any useful message etc). They bob their heads to the music blissfully unaware of the impending Financial Meltdown just around the corner (and subsequent fall of the American Empire). They just like hearing "Love you, Love love love, beauty, sunshine rainbows, life is perfect blah blah blah".

Do I sound disgruntled enough? That's reality  

+1

[Hexadecibel]

http://what-if.xkcd.com/6/

[CoinCidental]

I will take dollar denominated bets in Gox USD that pirate repays within 10 days using a willing trusted and reputable escrow only (someone like Vladimir, even though he is of a different opinion).  You win if Pirate does not repay within 10 days.  PM if interested and we can set it up and determine odds.

you have 8  posts and you are so confident of pirate you are  willing to take bets  ?

[el_rlee]

So what going on right now? People seams just started a few days ago to seriously search for an ID?
Nobody so far stated legal action taken?
TYGRR.BOND-P ask is down to 0.32 and 24h volume is up to 700, spirits are quite a bit lower than a couple of days ago.
Still many people like to discuss if the interest gets payed up to the hour or minute when he finally pays out.
The mind of the more heavily invested people is still in an interesting condition. If you take the single sell orders > 500pc of TYGRR.BOND-P on GLBSE:

Code:

1200 a 0.75
807  a 1
500  a 1.045
1550 a 1.067999
800  a 1.068

[AndrewBUD]

I will take dollar denominated bets in Gox USD that pirate repays within 10 days using a willing trusted and reputable escrow only (someone like Vladimir, even though he is of a different opinion).  You win if Pirate does not repay within 10 days.  PM if interested and we can set it up and determine odds.

you have 8  posts and you are so confident of pirate you are  willing to take bets  ?

Sock Poop-it