How could Pirate fuck your brains so well that even now many believe in him?

[el_rlee]

hehehehe..


These are the only facts I need to hear to make a sane educated guess as to the outcome...

Simple math will answer this one easily...  

Id does make a very important implicit assumption; that BTC value will remain more or less stable. If Prirate's big secret is that he hacked sha256 or has been mining a forked chain on asics for half a year, that assumption might be very wrong.

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

[matthewh3]

The debt continuing to accrue interest and I expect a full reconciliation to be made.

LOLZ.  

Pirate debt has increased by 52,303 BTC* just in the period of time since he ended the operation.  That is $549,270 at current exchange rates.  Even if he was profitable and could afford the interest obligation while operating, since shutting down he racked up another half million in debt.  In another five days he will have racked up over a million USD in additional debt since the shutdown.  His interest only obligation is now $57,993 per day or $40.27 per minute.

All that ignores the fact that the debt is legally unenforceable (violates usary laws in the US) and that BTC can be hidden from a judgement with trivial ease.  So the debtor can't be collected against and has 40 new reasons every minute to walk away.  Of course that even assume he could pay if he wanted to but it is increasingly obviously he can't.  Even if he could only pay say half doing so would save him almost $30,000 per day in additional interest yet he hasn't.  

So please, humor me I am just curious at which point will you no longer "expect a full reconciliation to be made"?  Another week (when he now owes ~$6.3 mil USD), another month (when he owes ~ $8.2 mil USD), 180 days (when he owes ~$46 mil USD)?



* Based on the claim by Pirate that the "trust" had 500K BTC when he shut it down.

hehehehe..


These are the only facts I need to hear to make a sane educated guess as to the outcome...

Simple math will answer this one easily...   

Pirate did say within two weeks I think to wind it down and it is just the ending of the first week.  Maybe Pirate had those two weeks interest payments tailored into his shut down plan accounted for.  If he doesn't honour his two week timetable or comes out with more excuses for time well then people should start to really worry.

[P4man]

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

You can do an asic design for considerably less than 500K btc and all it takes is 10 year old cmos technology. No aliens needed.

[markm]

Pirate did say within two weeks I think to wind it down and it is just the ending of the first week.  Maybe Pirate had those two weeks interest payments tailored into his shut down plan accounted for.  If he doesn't honour his two week timetable or comes out with more excuses for time well then people should start to really worry stretch to come up with excuses.

FTFY

-MarkM-

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

[Vladimir]

It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

This is simply a result of sudden silence (almost) of shills. They are not paid for working weekends or something? Or not paid anymore at all maybe?

[bitcoinBull]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Which day please?

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Which day please?

I can't remember the ins-and-outs of the bet.  Ask "Vladimir" he was the one who made it with him.

[bitcoinBull]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Which day please?

I can't remember the ins-and-outs of the bet.  Ask "Vladimir" he was the one who made it with him.

You mean Vandroiy.

[el_rlee]

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

You can do an asic design for considerably less than 500K btc and all it takes is 10 year old cmos technology. No aliens needed.

hm...

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Which day please?

I can't remember the ins-and-outs of the bet.  Ask "Vladimir" he was the one who made it with him.

You mean Vandroiy.

Yes maybe 

[dust]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

Some people will try to win a bet at any costs.  Even if it means shooting yourself in the foot.  To win a bet and keep face means a lot more than the prize of the bet to many a man.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

Some people will try to win a bet at any costs.  Even if it means shooting yourself in the foot.  To win a bet and keep face means a lot more than the prize of the bet to many a man.

What are you talking about.  If Pirate pays everyone back he wins the bet.  He could have won the bet already by paying everyone back on Friday.

[P4man]

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

No, he would only need to generate 51% of all blocks to be able to repay all his debt with 1BTC. 51% with asics is fairly trivial right now.

[matthewh3]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

Some people will try to win a bet at any costs.  Even if it means shooting yourself in the foot.  To win a bet and keep face means a lot more than the prize of the bet to many a man.

What are you talking about.  If Pirate pays everyone back he wins the bet.  He could have won the bet already by paying everyone back on Friday.

I didn't think the default date had passed.  Anyway I'm not loosing much sleep over it.  I only had BTC5.00 in a PPT and made more than the principle in interest payments.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

You can do an asic design for considerably less than 500K btc and all it takes is 10 year old cmos technology. No aliens needed.

hm...

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

I would also point out that was as of the day he shut down.   He owes closed to 550K BTC (and 5.5K BTC per day in interest) today.  In a month he will owe ~723K BTC and daily interest will be more than the number of coins minted each day. 

[DeathAndTaxes]

I think he's going to pay in full with all interest the day that bet he made expires.  It's funny this forum as a few months ago anyone who called Pirate a ponzi was belittled and now anyone who say's its not is belittled.

Yeah, paying almost $1 million in interest to spite someone is really worth it...

Some people will try to win a bet at any costs.  Even if it means shooting yourself in the foot.  To win a bet and keep face means a lot more than the prize of the bet to many a man.

What are you talking about.  If Pirate pays everyone back he wins the bet.  He could have won the bet already by paying everyone back on Friday.

I didn't think the default date had passed.

Pirate wins if he repays.  He doesn't need to wait 2 weeks to win the bet.  He wins if he repaid on Friday.  He wins if he repays today.  The sooner he repays he not only still wins but he saves himself half a million in extra interest per week.

[matthewh3]

Aliens... with extraterrestrial quantum computers! I heard they sell them for 500kBTC!

You can do an asic design for considerably less than 500K btc and all it takes is 10 year old cmos technology. No aliens needed.

hm...

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

I would also point out that was as of the day he shut down.   He owes closed to 550K BTC (and 5.5K BTC per day in interest) today.  In a month he will owe ~723K BTC and daily interest will be more than the number of coins minted each day. 

In a month is three weeks after Pirate repay date.  So I don't think anyone will be expecting to be paid.

[Vladimir]

BTC owed 500,000
Interest per day BTC 5000
Generated BTC per day 6x24x50 = 7200

So he would only need to generate 69% of all Bitcoins to make good for the interest, without paying back anything of the debt.

No, he would only need to generate 51% of all blocks to be able to repay all his debt with 1BTC. 51% with asics is fairly trivial right now.

to what ends?

http://gavintech.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/neutralizing-51-attack.html
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Attacks#Attacker_has_a_lot_of_computing_power

If a 51% attacker stopped including all broadcast transactions in blocks "we" would quickly figure out a rule or rules to reject their blocks.

Something like "ignore a longer chain orphaning the current best chain if the sum(priorities of transactions included in new chain) is much less than sum(priorities of transactions in the part of the current best chain that would be orphaned)" would mean a 51% attacker would have to have both lots of hashing power AND lots of old, high-priority bitcoins to keep up a transaction-denial-of-service attack. And they'd pretty quickly run out of old, high-priority bitcoins and would be forced to either include other people's transactions or have their chain rejected.

I'm tempted to code that up and run some tests on a testnet-in-a-box, but there are much higher priority things on my TODO list; I don't think a 51% attack is likely. You'd spend a lot of time and money on an attack that "we" would neuter within a day or two.

Basically 51% attack is going to be a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Even I under such circumstances would likely get some dry power into exchanges and buy me some bitcoins (for the first time ever).