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央行决定自4月20日起降存款准备金率1个百分点
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Topic: 央行决定自4月20日起降存款准备金率1个百分点 (Read 460 times)
BTC-zhanjiang
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央行决定自4月20日起降存款准备金率1个百分点
April 19, 2015, 10:28:31 AM
#1
中国人民银行决定,自2015年4月20日起下调各类存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率1个百分点。在此基础上,为进一步增强金融机构支持结构调整的能力,加大对小微企业、“三农”以及重大水利工程建设等的支持力度,自4月20日起对农信社、村镇银行等农村金融机构额外降低人民币存款准备金率1个百分点,并统一下调农村合作银行存款准备金率至农信社水平;对中国农业发展银行额外降低人民币存款准备金率2个百分点;对符合审慎经营要求且“三农”或小微企业贷款达到一定比例的国有银行和股份制商业银行可执行较同类机构法定水平低0.5个百分点的存款准备金率。
1%相当于释放多少资金? 最少1.2万亿。据央行上周公布的2015年一季度金融统计数据报告。3月份人民币存款余额124.89万亿元。因此下调存准率1个百分点相当于释放1.2万亿资金。 而由此引发的连锁反应将使得最终数额颇为巨大。
对股市影响:三大板块受益明显
1、资金敏感型品种
无论是银行还是地产,都属于资金敏感型品种,信贷投放的规模,资金实际价格,也都是影响这两个行业的核心因素。对于银行而言,降准最大的利好在于可贷规模比例。相同的还有地产行业,虽然这种影响同样有限。作为利息敏感品种的保险股也会小幅受益。而债券是保险公司的主要投资标的,其价格上扬也有望对冲交强险放开的利空。
2、大宗商品类
大宗商品,尤其是有色金属,主要受两个因素驱动,一个是实体经济的需求端,另一个则是对于流动性的预期。有色金属很难趋势性走强,但降准预期的出现会使有色板块,尤其是背靠新兴产业的稀有金属的脉冲性机会增加,有色板块的波段投机频率会有所增加。
3、高分红的新蓝筹
降准虽然不等同于降息,但随着银行间流动性的好转,银行间市场的资金价格有望出现一定程度回落。资金价格的回落也会是民间借贷等资金信贷的投资回报率回落。相比之下,蓝筹股,尤其是始终能够保持高分红比例的蓝筹股,其持有价值将有所突出。目前正是年报陆续披露阶段,对于高分红、低市盈率的蓝筹股而言,正是一个长期价值凸显的时候。
对楼市影响:
降准之后,增加了二套房贷降首付落地的可行性,改善型需求后续持续释放得到保障。政策刺激之下马上会出现一波入市的行情,短期内来看,楼市接下来几个月成交量势必会短期反弹。
各方评论:
经济学家滕泰:给央行点个赞:在面临通货紧缩、局部经济衰退、工业和地产投资下滑的必要举措,有利于降低社会融资成本,有利于遏制经济下行势头,有利于经济触底回稳。预计年内还有若干次降准,年内应该降低到16%左右。
宋清辉:下调存款准备金率,能够发挥货币政策在支持经济增长中的积极作用,预计央行适度宽松的货币政策还将继续。目前,存款准备金率的下调,将进一步释放流动性,对实体经济能够形成有效刺激。在当前经济增速不快的经济新常态下,货币政策相对宽松的预期下,央行降准将会给实体经济带来利好,同时,对银行、房地产股也是一种利好。
v0yager
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Re: 央行决定自4月20日起降存款准备金率1个百分点
April 19, 2015, 10:51:17 AM
#2
对应08年牛市中央行降息1个百分点后隔天股市暴涨一个点,我甚是期待明天大盘会有怎么样的表现。
BTC-zhanjiang
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Re: 央行决定自4月20日起降存款准备金率1个百分点
April 19, 2015, 11:23:50 AM
#3
Quote from: v0yager on April 19, 2015, 10:51:17 AM
对应08年牛市中央行降息1个百分点后隔天股市暴涨一个点,我甚是期待明天大盘会有怎么样的表现。
哈哈 我觉得明天开始股市应该会回暖了!
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