12 Million people use Bitcoin today according to XAPO's CEO

[americanpegasus]

Nah, according to my Pegapothesis, which is proven by both the New Testament and Thermodynamics, once we see tens of millions of users the price of bitcoin is going to explode.   
 
I would estimate between 500,000 and 1,000,000 users currently which means that bitcoin is actually fairly priced at current levels. 
 
The interesting part is that once we start adding more users however, things are going to go to plaid, really really fast.   
 

[futureofbitcoin]

At first I thought you were an overly enthusiastic bitcoin believer. Now I'm starting to wonder if you're an elaborate troll trying to make people think all bitcoin believers are crazy

[fox19891989]

Nah, according to my Pegapothesis, which is proven by both the New Testament and Thermodynamics, once we see tens of millions of users the price of bitcoin is going to explode.   
 
I would estimate between 500,000 and 1,000,000 users currently which means that bitcoin is actually fairly priced at current levels. 
 
The interesting part is that once we start adding more users however, things are going to go to plaid, really really fast.   
 

Interesting graph and table, if BTC has 2 million users, BTC price may be 920 USD. If BTC has 20 million users, BTC price may be 10k USD? Seems logical.

[bryant.coleman]

12 million is definitely not possible. Check this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

Only 689,000 people are having more than BTC0.10 with them. He probably overestimated the number by a magnitude of 20 times. 

[Snail2]

12 million is definitely not possible. Check this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

Only 689,000 people are having more than BTC0.10 with them. He probably overestimated the number by a magnitude of 20 times. 

Probably that 12 millions is more about propaganda and raising awareness than real numbers. ...or that Xapo guy simply don't know what he talking about .

[crazyivan]

12 million is definitely not possible. Check this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

Only 689,000 people are having more than BTC0.10 with them. He probably overestimated the number by a magnitude of 20 times. 

Probably that 12 millions is more about propaganda and raising awareness than real numbers. ...or that Xapo guy simply don't know what he talking about .

That's exactly what it is. My guess is not even half of these 12 Million is still using it. A lot of them were people who were tipped with Bitcoin or just wanted to try it out and forgot about it.

Dont forget he runs a BTC based business. What kind of marketing would it be if he would not lie?

[Q7]

Personally for me, in just one year time span, I believe I've used more than over 100 wallets addresses cause I prefer using change addresses and transfer my funds around just to protect my privacy. Assuming that a quarter of the bitcoin user follow this same trend, that number projected by Xapo is definitely 25 times lesser and it could be even far lower. It's definitely not than high.

[futureofbitcoin]

giving out an optimistic number might entice investors, but giving out an outrageous number would turn people away because they think you're not being genuine and trustworthy.

[Snail2]

giving out an optimistic number might entice investors, but giving out an outrageous number would turn people away because they think you're not being genuine and trustworthy.

Serious investors used to do their own research before jumping into something new, so this greatly exaggerated number must be something for entice Average Joe. You are right on the outrageous number, such statements are only good for questioning the bloke's credibility or competence.

[NeuroticFish]

There were a lot of promotions here and there - if you make a new Xapo account you get some satoshi for free.
The actual ID is not checked, you can fill whatever name you want.

If such promotions are still up, soon Xapo will claim more users than the population with access to the internet.


Obviously the numbers are wrong. Sorry, Xapo...

[inBitweTrust]

I agree that 12 million is inflated number... There are probably less than 1 million active users(People that are spending at least once a week), but 4-7 million BTC holders due to services like changetip and coinbase.

Proof-

https://www.coinbase.com/about

Coinbase has 2,100,000 unique users (2,700,000 wallets) as they follow KYC and cannot lie about these numbers due to the amount of investors doing their due diligence and they aren't even available in some of the largest countries of bitcoin investors like china and uk.

Many people like myself have given out 100s of gifts in bitcoin with changetip and coinbase and we see who accepts it or not. Most of these non -bitcoin users accepting it are simply sitting on the bitcoin because they cannot be bothered with 5-50 usd of btc at the moment but are aware that it may go up in value so are willing to spend a minute setting up the account to accept in hopes that it does appreciate and not to be rude to their friendly gift giver.

[johnyj]

Less than 1 million definitely. Due to security concern (loss of coin, loss of encryption password), people that putting serious money in bitcoin must have some IT security competence, that limited the number of active users, that won't change over night

It's still very early stage of adoption and the main drivers are entrepreneurs, since bitcoin will enable many things that they can not do at a bank. But for average consumer, the only meaningful use is to act as a medium of saving, or speculation, because their income is received in the form of fiat money

[coinableS]

I agree that 12 million is inflated number... There are probably less than 1 million active users(People that are spending at least once a week), but 4-7 million BTC holders due to services like changetip and coinbase.

Proof-

https://www.coinbase.com/about

Coinbase has 2,100,000 unique users (2,700,000 wallets) as they follow KYC and cannot lie about these numbers due to the amount of investors doing their due diligence and they aren't even available in some of the largest countries of bitcoin investors like china and uk.

Many people like myself have given out 100s of gifts in bitcoin with changetip and coinbase and we see who accepts it or not. Most of these non -bitcoin users accepting it are simply sitting on the bitcoin because they cannot be bothered with 5-50 usd of btc at the moment but are aware that it may go up in value so are willing to spend a minute setting up the account to accept in hopes that it does appreciate and not to be rude to their friendly gift giver.

How many of those 2.7 million sign ups are not bitcoin USERS? Perhaps they received $5, $10 worth of BTC from somewhere and immediately cashed it out to fiat, and coinbase is the easiest way in the US to 'cashout'.  In my book that is not a bitcoin user. I went kayaking once, but I am not a kayaker.

[Daniel91]

If we will really have 12 million users this will be really great but I don't think so.
Probably a lot less people actually using bitcoin on a daily basis.
Until ''big merchants'' accept bitcoin and we become mainstream, this fact will not change.

[inBitweTrust]

I agree that 12 million is inflated number... There are probably less than 1 million active users(People that are spending at least once a week), but 4-7 million BTC holders due to services like changetip and coinbase.

Proof-

https://www.coinbase.com/about

Coinbase has 2,100,000 unique users (2,700,000 wallets) as they follow KYC and cannot lie about these numbers due to the amount of investors doing their due diligence and they aren't even available in some of the largest countries of bitcoin investors like china and uk.

Many people like myself have given out 100s of gifts in bitcoin with changetip and coinbase and we see who accepts it or not. Most of these non -bitcoin users accepting it are simply sitting on the bitcoin because they cannot be bothered with 5-50 usd of btc at the moment but are aware that it may go up in value so are willing to spend a minute setting up the account to accept in hopes that it does appreciate and not to be rude to their friendly gift giver.

How many of those 2.7 million sign ups are not bitcoin USERS? Perhaps they received $5, $10 worth of BTC from somewhere and immediately cashed it out to fiat, and coinbase is the easiest way in the US to 'cashout'.  In my book that is not a bitcoin user. I went kayaking once, but I am not a kayaker.

I already admitted that many of those 2.1 million users aren't active, read my post. A majority of my projected 4-7 million worldwide holders are essentially acting as speculators with some starting to become regular users like myself due to the benefits and savings realized(20-30% off everything from amazon is very nice).

Most user will not waste their time verifying their bank with coinbase or figuring out how to sell or spend their coins.... but will just go through the 1 minute process of claiming the gift many of us send them. People that regularly give out gifts know this because we see from coinbase and changetip when a gift isn't claimed(thus the people don't go through the 1 minute process of primary KYC) and than we know they aren't selling it because:

1) We understand human psychology and know how lazy people and how averse they are with learning to use new systems. Primary KYC is easy , learning to sell and spend BTC is a whole other step. Claiming and sitting on 5-50usd of BTC is easy, spending it may not be worth their time.

2) These are our friends and family members who we often speak to who admit they are just sitting on the btc in hopes that it goes up.


The beauty about all this is that many of these holders (speculators) will convert overnight to spenders , users, and advocates during the next dis inflationary bubble ... which is likely to happen in 2016.

Bottom line is to continue to follow Roger Ver's lead and give out bitcoin and spread the wealth around as this is one of the most effective methods growing adoption.

[neurotypical]

It's impossible to estimate the exact number of Bitcoin users, only a rought estimate can be drawn throught number of transactions,  numbers of exiting addresses, number of newly created addresses.. the answer is somewhere between all that data.

[crazyivan]

Nah, according to my Pegapothesis, which is proven by both the New Testament and Thermodynamics, once we see tens of millions of users the price of bitcoin is going to explode.   
 
I would estimate between 500,000 and 1,000,000 users currently which means that bitcoin is actually fairly priced at current levels. 
 
The interesting part is that once we start adding more users however, things are going to go to plaid, really really fast.   
 

Good stuff. One of the best explanations of correlation between the price and user growth recently.

[BitUsher]

The good news is that we are doing fairly well for such a small group of active users and many inactive ones can become active spenders overnight.

The promise is this can happen even if we don't grow in numbers (we are though) as the next bubble will bring a lot of renewed interest into our space and speculators will become active users while they cash out on part of their investment.

[Rude Boy]

it might not be 12 million peoples.
Instead, it might me that 12 million bitcoin addressess are used.
(I'm not sure)


~Rude Boy

[sana54210]

I think that number is bit exaggerated number as I myself have about 5 to 6 wallets and many other people also do the same, I think the rough  estimate will be somewhere 1 to 2 million users, which by itself is a huge accomplishment, considering before 4 years only few thousand people  had bitcoins, soon in the future in the coming decade it can reach a half a billion to a billion people.