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Author Topic: Fall in US shale output likely to deepen in May  (Read 769 times)
yellowpage09
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April 21, 2015, 01:45:50 AM
 #1


The EIA's monthly Drilling Productivity Report projected that m/m output in the six main shale oil areas would fall by 57 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in May. It also revised April output to a 2kb/d m/m fall from a small increase previously, indicating that the decline started earlier than the EIA first believed.

The fall in drilling activity in US shale areas has been so large that the decline in output from existing wells can no longer be offset. The EIA expects new well output in May to be 34% lower than in February, which is no longer enough to compensate for the declines.

With the US shale oil industry still affected by a lack of cash flow and deteriorating credit conditions, we expect new well output to stay below the declines for several more months.

"With shale oil drilling activity having fallen further this month, we expect the EIA's predicted decline in shale oil output to deepen in June.  Based on current rig counts, we expect US shale oil output to decline by 73kb/d m/m in June. We expect prices to recover strongly enough for output to stabilise later this year." - said Standard Chartered in a report on Monday

(Source: http://fxwire.pro/Fall-in-US-shale-output-likely-to-deepen-in-May-27370)
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Realpra
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April 21, 2015, 09:11:20 AM
 #2

Shale is a desperate attempt at getting more fossil fuels and leaves you with poisoned or foul tasting ground water - in a world where water is a scarcity.

The recession everyone is feeling right now is because mankind is currently getting the most fossil fuels it ever will. It's a recession because we are not constantly getting more cheap energy, but not an outright depression because we are still getting a lot.

Now, once we start sliding down the bell curve things will get nasty. It will be slow, you might not even notice unless you compare your life to 5 years ago, but it will come.

It won't just be prices and jobs either, I'm noticing that politics are getting more extreme in many countries. I think once resources grow scarce people start to favor fascism a lot more.

Around the last crash Greece had an all out neo nazi militia training themselves for a coup that the government shut down. And again: currently we have MORE fossil fuels than 20 years ago.

I'm really worried about the future sometimes.

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April 22, 2015, 01:22:50 AM
 #3

The people most likely to be happy with this are the Saudis. Their strategy of not cutting production seems to have worked. Prices fell to ensure that some supply has gone offline.
Now prices are on an upward trend again.


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Realpra
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April 22, 2015, 07:35:32 AM
 #4

The people most likely to be happy with this are the Saudis. Their strategy of not cutting production seems to have worked. Prices fell to ensure that some supply has gone offline.
Now prices are on an upward trend again.
The reason they can't cut production is that their entire state is a giant socialist "paradise" with a thousand princes. If they turn off the flow their entire state will implode in ISIS like instability.

They don't have ample to spare for politics anymore and their production has peaked years ago now. Soon (5-20 years) the entire country as we know it will be in trouble/disappear.

You can also look at satellite pictures from before ~2009 I think and after, they used up all their ground water and their crop production fell in a single year by 75%. Now mostly they import food.

Trust me you don't want to be a Saudi they have nothing but oil, no skills or education and the oil is running out.

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EasyD
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April 22, 2015, 08:31:29 AM
 #5

So what you're telling me is....gas prices are going up?
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April 22, 2015, 08:49:04 AM
 #6

So what you're telling me is....gas prices are going up?
Well in a 20 year timeframe? Definitely.

Short term it can be complex, see these 3 phases: Price goes up -> Economy crashes -> Price goes down.
Is oil abundant in the third phase? Not really.

Now what recent crisis could have temporarily lowered prices? How about the massive embargo of Russia and the Ukraine conflict creating market uncertainty - and yet prices will be back up eventually.

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April 22, 2015, 09:00:25 AM
 #7

So how do I trade this?
Realpra
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April 22, 2015, 10:28:43 AM
 #8

So how do I trade this?
I guess you could buy oil futures now and cash out in 1-3 years for a 10-50% profit then repeat after the next crash.
Barring the futures market you use isn't a scam/doesn't crash and the next crash doesn't hit right as you have to cash out.

Personally I bought some shares in a windturbine coop kinda thing. Its not mega profitable at the moment though.

Being an investor is pretty hard Wink

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April 22, 2015, 11:51:27 AM
 #9

Not sure how to interpret this information because two days ago the arab oil minister insisted that production output will remain the same and then what follows suit is the price coming down again after having rallied to its best performance for this year. It's more like somebody is trying to suppress the price from going up (with a hidden agenda which I presume) but all the indicators showing right now having point to oil price going up in the long run, I think it's just a matter of time that this will happen. 

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April 22, 2015, 02:08:55 PM
 #10


The reason they can't cut production is that their entire state is a giant socialist "paradise" with a thousand princes. If they turn off the flow their entire state will implode in ISIS like instability.

They don't have ample to spare for politics anymore and their production has peaked years ago now. Soon (5-20 years) the entire country as we know it will be in trouble/disappear.

Once their utility to the Western world ends, we will start hearing about the bad influence of hardline Saudi Wahhabism. The world hasn't been talking about this because it needs Saudi oil. The end of Saudi Arabia could be very swift.


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April 22, 2015, 02:48:17 PM
 #11

Obama's stupidity will cost the United States hundreds of thousands of local jobs. Low oil prices will make the American shale oil unprofitable, while those producers in Russia and Saudi Arabia will still be able to operate in a profit (average cost of production stands at $50 to $60 for the shale oil producers, compared to around $6 for those in Saudi Arabia and $15 to $20 for those in Russia).
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April 22, 2015, 05:45:08 PM
 #12

Obama's stupidity will cost the United States hundreds of thousands of local jobs. Low oil prices will make the American shale oil unprofitable, while those producers in Russia and Saudi Arabia will still be able to operate in a profit (average cost of production stands at $50 to $60 for the shale oil producers, compared to around $6 for those in Saudi Arabia and $15 to $20 for those in Russia).

You say will, but this has already happened.
Don't forget the Canadians - they have lost jobs, too.
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