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Author Topic: How Soros goes all in, is it the right time for bitcoin price to reverse?  (Read 2559 times)
Huobi-USD (OP)
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April 21, 2015, 02:23:21 PM
 #1

In the more than six years since the global financial crisis, there have been a large number of excellent speculative opportunities. Gold tripled, crude oil fell 80%, the Australian dollar fell 2000 points, and Bitcoin increased ten thousand-fold. So with all these investment opportunities, why not go all in? In 1992 George Soros went all in and broke the Bank of England.
 
The way Soros makes an all in bet is different than ordinary investors. He will wait for a key moment that has a high probability of being a reversal point, then he will go all in. Ordinary investors often make many bets that each have a 50% chance to win - but 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% means that an investor than makes several all in bets will lose eventually.
 
Go all in before the market reverses
 
In 2012, George Soros shorted the Japanese yen and profited one billion dollars.
 
In 2013, Soros moved to the Australian dollar market. The Australian central bank cut interest rates for the first time. When the AUD was at the highest point (1.06), Soros took a one billion dollar short position, and the AUD subsequently declined.
 
Go all in and catch the reversal point At the end of 2013, the China A-share market was coming to the reversal point after a long decline; after several rounds of volatility, finally there was a breakthrough:
 
Where is the next opportunity to go all in? Which market will have the next opportunity to go all in? U.S. stocks, A-shares, gold, and crude oil seem to lack of clear direction. But the monthly Bitcoin chart shows a very clear long downward trend:
 
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April 21, 2015, 03:49:26 PM
 #2

I think that there is a very good chance that we will see a reversal in the price of Bitcoin, but I'd think twice before going all-in on any investment. Especially one as speculative as this. Just my two satoshis. Good luck in whatever you decide to do.

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April 21, 2015, 04:03:56 PM
 #3

The question you should ask yourselves now after reading it all is: would Soros go all in on Bitcoin? My guess is no.
Bitcoin is manipulated by whales and there's so many coins sitting in large wallets controlled by single anonymous owners that going all in might backfire on you.  
I'm not saying don't invest, just be responsible.

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April 21, 2015, 06:54:09 PM
 #4

Nice title, the Soros name grabbed my attention, but George Soros hasn't invested in BTC so far (at least publicly). I wouldn't bet we are at a reversal point. I guess we need something big to happen.

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April 21, 2015, 08:01:06 PM
 #5

Much as I appreciate the OP's logic, I'm quite certain the only view we'll have of George's strategy will be in a big, shiny rear view mirror.
Furthermore...
Bitcoin is not gold - it's a currency. Which means it's value is a measurement relative to other currencies.
Currencies do NOT move thousands of dollars. They move in pennies.
As an American, with US dollars, I can buy a British pound for about $1.50 give or take.
To say that the pound will someday cost me $1000 means that the US dollar has collapsed.
Bitcoin has no country. It is a global currency now. It cannot move thousands of dollars in price because there is NOTHING backing it other than a "digital" supply.
Talk about fiat. This whole game officially over. F*ck Soros and his Bitcoin habits.
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April 21, 2015, 08:02:58 PM
 #6

Soros goes all in when he can get inside info (like from central banks) on when a significant manipulation is about to happen.  There is no bitcoin central bank.  Soros won't go all in.

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April 22, 2015, 03:49:39 AM
 #7

I think that there is a very good chance that we will see a reversal in the price of Bitcoin, but I'd think twice before going all-in on any investment. Especially one as speculative as this. Just my two satoshis. Good luck in whatever you decide to do.

Thank you for the advice!

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April 22, 2015, 03:59:28 AM
 #8

Soros goes all in when he can get inside info (like from central banks) on when a significant manipulation is about to happen.  There is no bitcoin central bank.  Soros won't go all in.

So you're saying the only way Soros could make those successful trades is because he had insider information? No real investing talent?

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April 22, 2015, 04:03:55 AM
 #9

Going all in is much more of a gambler's mentality than an investor's. Great for George but I wouldn't recommend anyone to go "all in" on anything. I am pretty much a permabull on bitcoin, but I only invest a modest amount each payday. Trying to catch the bottom/top or the reversal point is very difficult to do. A lot of people thought the reversal was in May last year, but that didn't work out.

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April 22, 2015, 07:09:16 AM
 #10

Soros goes all in when he can get inside info (like from central banks) on when a significant manipulation is about to happen.  There is no bitcoin central bank.  Soros won't go all in.

So you're saying the only way Soros could make those successful trades is because he had insider information? No real investing talent?

some are lucky(the luck hits someone always) some have friends in the market, they could be rich guys that manipulate it and other are just talented, but i'm pessimistic about being only talented, there is always some luck involved in those things

i can say this,  because those talented people are always a minority, this means there is luck, because i think thatthat talent belongs to more people than we think
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April 22, 2015, 09:43:53 PM
 #11

Rich people take big risks.  All of them have.  You can't steal second and keep your foot on first.  Bitcoin is a once in a lifetime investment opportunity, if you want to be rich someday, now is your time to strike.  Best of luck.

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April 22, 2015, 09:45:56 PM
 #12

Look at Microsoft's stock.  It languished for 5 years while people debated if computers were a fad.  Looking back on its hard to believe how stupid people were.  Its the same thing here.  Don't be stupid

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April 22, 2015, 09:58:18 PM
 #13

Look at Microsoft's stock.  It languished for 5 years while people debated if computers were a fad.  Looking back on its hard to believe how stupid people were.  Its the same thing here.  Don't be stupid

Indeed, and that group of people includes "IBM" and a lot of other important people. The IBM of today with Bitcoin are investors such as Peter Schiff and Warren Buffet and basically the rest of the dinosaurs that are too old to get Bitcoin. Let them burn, for they don't deserve to profit from it.
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April 22, 2015, 10:15:18 PM
 #14

Rich people take big risks.  All of them have.  You can't steal second and keep your foot on first.  Bitcoin is a once in a lifetime investment opportunity, if you want to be rich someday, now is your time to strike.  Best of luck.
Pretty much this, any interested party should definitely have bitcoin under their belt. The amount of exposure is up to the individual and what works for them. When the pricing does turn around, you'd better have whatever you need to feel happy about in the future. Considering we're in the end times of the bear season, it's definitely time to load yourself up because you never know when the match will strike.
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April 22, 2015, 11:37:26 PM
 #15

Remember Petrobras?  During the gulf oil spill crisis the U.S. government invested in this company in Brazil, and Soros with the information prior to the event ( from friends in the White House) went in big and made a billion, which he turned around and "invested" a few hundred million in Obamas campaign again;  Crony Capitalism at its best.

This is how Soros works.  Sure bets, payoffs and corruption.  Don't count on riding coattails.  It will be over before you can make anything, and you would be left like Petrobras with a bankrupt company flooded with lawsuits involving corruption from Brazilian government officials, and others...

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April 23, 2015, 05:57:18 PM
 #16

Just think about it. Who would you trust more about a 2 year prediction, Andreas Antonopoulous (which says "give it 2 years") or some guy coming from old money whose entire portfolio is made out stuff that can migrate to Bitcoin in the future if it's a success? do the math.
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April 23, 2015, 07:45:15 PM
 #17

You have heard of Soros because he is good at what he does as well as having deep enough pockets to move markets in his favour.
We can't do what he does, otherwise we wouldn't be on here asking ourselves "what would Soros do!?"

If he did choose to invest in Bitcoin, we could move the market massively.  He hasn't chosen to though.

I do think we are near the bottom though, I am not sure enough to leverage my bitcoin on this though, that seems like a quick way to the poor house.  Bitcoin is volatile enough without multiplying it by 3
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April 25, 2015, 08:31:30 AM
 #18

George Soros will go all in just about now and become a legend.

R


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October 14, 2015, 07:28:11 AM
 #19

Just think about it. Who would you trust more about a 2 year prediction, Andreas Antonopoulous (which says "give it 2 years") or some guy coming from old money whose entire portfolio is made out stuff that can migrate to Bitcoin in the future if it's a success? do the math.

Do you honestly believe that the Soros Brothers invested into BitGold sans daddy's blessing?
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October 15, 2015, 08:01:29 PM
 #20


If he did choose to invest in Bitcoin, we could move the market massively.  He hasn't chosen to though.


Ironically his son is interested in Bitseeds, too bad they can't get their f'in network to work. But this does indicate he knows about crypto.

https://coinreport.net/will-bitseeds-xseed-germinate-terminate/

Quote
There has been interest, however. Suzanne Pelletier of the RFF tells me 500 BitSeeds were successfully auctioned for $0.70 per BitSeed. This occurred at a United Nations luncheon in New York City recently. Influential philanthropist Alex Soros also expressed his interest in the project. Payment processor Coin.co is collaborating with BitSeeds to help process the transactions of BitSeeds.


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