[WTS] 1 x BFL Jalapeno pre-order #1769

[the joint]

Hey everyone.

It's been over 2 months now since BFL's ASICs officially went on pre-order.

I am selling one (1) spot in line for a 1st-day-ordered Jalapeno from order #1769 (the first ASIC order was #1656).  I paid immediately with Bitcoins as opposed to a bank transfer so that my place in the shipping line would be solidified quickly. 

With every passing day, BFL receives more ASIC orders - orders that will inevitably drive up difficulty once shipped.  This means that the very first ASIC orders will be more valuable in terms of mining-time:profit than ASICs ordered today, and this will become more and more true as time goes on. 

Accordingly, I am looking for 90 BTC.  I will consider other offers.  I am in no rush to sell, and as time goes on, I presume the 90 BTC price tag will look more and more appealing.

If you buy, I will send the Jalapeno via overnight mail the day after I receive it from BFL so you can get it up and running ASAP for maximum profits in the first few weeks.

[crazyates]

And so it begins.

[AndrewK]

Wouldn't it be cool if this guy^ didn't troll every for sale thread and post his unasked for opinion???   

[puffn]

It would be much much much cooler if Jalapeno's were worth 90btc.

[ElectricMucus]

And so it begins.

lulz
inb4 someone mentioning my ignore status.

[the joint]

It would be much much much cooler if Jalapeno's were worth 90btc.

That's what one of mine is worth to me, give or take.  Do the math with a few ballpark figures.  At only 2 months, strict ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is a bit high.  Liberal ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is realistic.  At 3-4 months, 90 BTC should look pretty damn good.

[MrTeal]

It would be much much much cooler if Jalapeno's were worth 90btc.

That's what one of mine is worth to me, give or take.  Do the math with a few ballpark figures.  At only 2 months, strict ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is a bit high.  Liberal ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is realistic.  At 3-4 months, 90 BTC should look pretty damn good.

How do you figure? Assuming that 1) difficulty only doubles and then stays steady, and 2) The block reward halving doesn't happen in this time frame it would still take four months to earn back 90BTC.

Obviously the block reward halving will happen, and difficulty won't stay constant at 5M or so.

[CrazyGuy]

I think you are looking at 25 btc at the high end. If it's worth 90btc to you then you should keep it.

[yochdog]

I bid 27 BTC

[muyuu]

Lulz http://www.ebay.com/itm/Butterfly-Labs-Bitforce-BFL-Jalapeno-Pre-Order-3-5Gh-s-Bitcoin-Miner-ASIC-/251137750996

[live627]

Lulz http://www.ebay.com/itm/Butterfly-Labs-Bitforce-BFL-Jalapeno-Pre-Order-3-5Gh-s-Bitcoin-Miner-ASIC-/251137750996

Sold out.. That was damn fast...

[the joint]

I bid 27 BTC

Noted, but no thanks.

[Jutarul]

Lulz http://www.ebay.com/itm/Butterfly-Labs-Bitforce-BFL-Jalapeno-Pre-Order-3-5Gh-s-Bitcoin-Miner-ASIC-/251137750996

Sold out.. That was damn fast...

Where do all those suckers come from?

[the joint]

It would be much much much cooler if Jalapeno's were worth 90btc.

That's what one of mine is worth to me, give or take.  Do the math with a few ballpark figures.  At only 2 months, strict ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is a bit high.  Liberal ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is realistic.  At 3-4 months, 90 BTC should look pretty damn good.

How do you figure? Assuming that 1) difficulty only doubles and then stays steady, and 2) The block reward halving doesn't happen in this time frame it would still take four months to earn back 90BTC.

Obviously the block reward halving will happen, and difficulty won't stay constant at 5M or so.

This is how I figure:

1)  First-day Jalapeno ASICS should arrive pre-reward drop.  This makes every day mining pre-reward drop instantly about twice as valuable as day mining post-reward drop.

2)  I am also from the US, so my order should arrive before international orders.  This should help maximize profits in the first critical few days/weeks.

3)  Consider what the difficulty will be during those first 2 months after the first ASICs are shipped versus the difficulty after 2 months.  If the difficulty increases by a factor of 4, then mining during the first 2 months will be approximately 4 times as valuable.  Couple this with the reward drop and any pre-reward drop mining will be 8 times as valuable.  Of course, difficulty may increase by more or less than a factor of 4, but you can substitute any number you think is realistic. 

If one Jalapeno is about ~$150 USD, or about 14 BTC, then that means that asking 90 BTC is assuming that a first-day ordered Jalapeno is about 6.4 times more valuable than a Jalapeno ordered today.  Will you make 6.4 times as many BTC with it in the first 2 months?  Maybe.

4)  Because the difficulty will only continue to go up, first-day ordered ASICs will only become more and more valuable relative to ASICs ordered today.  This offer should become more appealing with time.

[MrTeal]

It would be much much much cooler if Jalapeno's were worth 90btc.

That's what one of mine is worth to me, give or take.  Do the math with a few ballpark figures.  At only 2 months, strict ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is a bit high.  Liberal ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is realistic.  At 3-4 months, 90 BTC should look pretty damn good.

How do you figure? Assuming that 1) difficulty only doubles and then stays steady, and 2) The block reward halving doesn't happen in this time frame it would still take four months to earn back 90BTC.

Obviously the block reward halving will happen, and difficulty won't stay constant at 5M or so.

This is how I figure:

1)  First-day Jalapeno ASICS should arrive pre-reward drop.  This makes every day mining pre-reward drop instantly about twice as valuable as day mining post-reward drop.

2)  I am also from the US, so my order should arrive before international orders.  This should help maximize profits in the first critical few days/weeks.

3)  Consider what the difficulty will be during those first 2 months after the first ASICs are shipped versus the difficulty after 2 months.  If the difficulty increases by a factor of 4, then mining during the first 2 months will be approximately 4 times as valuable.  Couple this with the reward drop and any pre-reward drop mining will be 8 times as valuable.  Of course, difficulty may increase by more or less than a factor of 4, but you can substitute any number you think is realistic. 

If one Jalapeno is about ~$150 USD, or about 14 BTC, then that means that asking 90 BTC is assuming that a first-day ordered Jalapeno is about 6.4 times more valuable than a Jalapeno ordered today.  Will you make 6.4 times as many BTC with it in the first 2 months?  Maybe.

4)  Because the difficulty will only continue to go up, first-day ordered ASICs will only become more and more valuable relative to ASICs ordered today.  This offer should become more appealing with time.

It doesn't work like that. You might think the Jalapeno is worth BTC90, but I can't see anyone else seeing it that way. At BTC90 you would likely never make your money back.

1) The reward drop will likely be less than two months from the date you get it with the sudden speeding up the the network causing the difficulty retargets to lag the blocks found, but that's best case assuming BFL gets these into people's hands third week of October.

2) The person who buys this from you would get it online after all the other North American first day orders have already got theirs, so they won't get nearly as much low difficulty time as others.

If difficulty only doubles with that first batch and never again increases, you'll be making BTC0.7/day before the reward drop.  In that case, you would earn BTC42 before the block reward halving. After that you'd make BTC0.35/day. It would then take another 137 days to finish paying off the BTC90 you spent.

In this extremely unlikely best case scenario, it would take 200 days to make back your investment. Much more likely is that you would never recoup your BTC90.

[imsaguy]

It doesn't work like that. You might think the Jalapeno is worth BTC90, but I can't see anyone else seeing it that way. At BTC90 you would likely never make your money back.

1) The reward drop will likely be less than two months from the date you get it with the sudden speeding up the the network causing the difficulty retargets to lag the blocks found, but that's best case assuming BFL gets these into people's hands third week of October.

2) The person who buys this from you would get it online after all the other North American first day orders have already got theirs, so they won't get nearly as much low difficulty time as others.

If difficulty only doubles with that first batch and never again increases, you'll be making BTC0.7/day before the reward drop.  In that case, you would earn BTC42 before the block reward halving. After that you'd make BTC0.35/day. It would then take another 137 days to finish paying off the BTC90 you spent.

In this extremely unlikely best case scenario, it would take 200 days to make back your investment. Much more likely is that you would never recoup your BTC90.

During that next 137-200 days, difficulty will only continue to go up as the rest of the asic orders ship so it will extend that even further.

[live627]

Lulz http://www.ebay.com/itm/Butterfly-Labs-Bitforce-BFL-Jalapeno-Pre-Order-3-5Gh-s-Bitcoin-Miner-ASIC-/251137750996

Sold out.. That was damn fast...

Even bigger lulz... the buyer resisted with a slightly higher asking price. Seems he thinks he can mooch more profit off his success. http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=251140250131

[crazyates]

Wouldn't it be cool if this guy^ didn't troll every for sale thread and post his unasked for opinion???   

Hey man, free bump!

[the joint]

Bump.

Entertaining offers.  If the offer is too low, I'll entertain you instead.

Edit:  Offer needs to be greater than yochdog's 27 BTC.

[live627]

Oh cool, we have a court jester!