Consider Pirate does not pay and does not sell

[ElectricMucus]

I think it is very likely that pirate will just keep his bitcoins for the time being, at least over the course of this year.

Do you think that is a bullish or bearish influence?

Things I can come up with:
Pirates BTC essentially are withheld from the market, thus shortening supply (bullish)
People who lost their bitcoins might be frustrated and leave, not buying perhaps selling the rest if they weren't going all in (bearish)

[1714956008]

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[DeathAndTaxes]

If that happens (and no idea if it will) I would say it is short term bullish and longer term neutral.  However Pirate indicated that he didn't have the coins (or at least not all the coins) which would mean he is mostly in USD so there are no coins to withhold. 

[augustocroppo]

I think it is very likely that pirate will just keep his bitcoins for the time being, at least over the course of this year.

Do you think that is a bullish or bearish influence?

Things I can come up with:
Pirates BTC essentially are withheld from the market, thus shortening supply (bullish)
People who lost their bitcoins might be frustrated and leave, not buying perhaps selling the rest if they weren't going all in (bearish)

None.

Pirate40 is not the Bitcoin network.

 

[Snapman]

Plain and simple, if he pays out, the markets will tank as everybody rushes to mtgox with their payouts to cashout.

If he doesnt pay, all the coins that would have tanked the market are now out of the equation, leaving the price as is.

[ElectricMucus]

So the consensus is it doesn't affect the market?
Shouldn't it at least have a stabilizing influence?

However Pirate indicated that he didn't have the coins (or at least not all the coins) which would mean he is mostly in USD so there are no coins to withhold.  

I've seen that quote too. Honestly I don't read much into it, it is so vague (purposefully imo) that anything can be read into it.

[kentrolla]

who's pirate?

[Littleshop]

Plain and simple, if he pays out, the markets will tank as everybody rushes to mtgox with their payouts to cashout.

If he doesnt pay, all the coins that would have tanked the market are now out of the equation, leaving the price as is.

While I agree with D&T that he probably does not have the coins....

I do not agree with this 'groupthink' that everyone is going to rush to mtgox to cash out if they did get the coins.  Most people here want to have their bitcoins back, because they are theirs, not just to cash out.   Sure, the price may tank a bit, but now even selling 10k coins only drops the price for a day and it slowly creeps back up.  

[DeathAndTaxes]

who's pirate?

PirateS.  These guys



They hijacked a ship carrying newly minted Bitcoins on its way to MtGox.  The owners paid the ransom but so far the pirates haven't released the ship yet.   

[kentrolla]

who's pirate?

PirateS.  These guys



They hijacked a ship carrying newly minted Bitcoins on its way to MtGox.  The owners paid the ransom but so far the pirates haven't released the ship yet.   

ohhhh. this explains EVERYTHING.

[Snapman]

Plain and simple, if he pays out, the markets will tank as everybody rushes to mtgox with their payouts to cashout.

If he doesnt pay, all the coins that would have tanked the market are now out of the equation, leaving the price as is.

While I agree with D&T that he probably does not have the coins....

I do not agree with this 'groupthink' that everyone is going to rush to mtgox to cash out if they did get the coins.  Most people here want to have their bitcoins back, because they are theirs, not just to cash out.   Sure, the price may tank a bit, but now even selling 10k coins only drops the price for a day and it slowly creeps back up.  

Most times all it takes is for the market to get lite cramps, just a little for that "price may tank a bit", then after that the bots and speculators read way into it and scream CRASH on the forums, which in turn sends legions to mtgox with their floods of sells.

[ElectricMucus]

That's strange I make a thread about one thing and people still mainly discuss the other thing.

[zby]

This is a scam that managed to get 1/20 of all bitcoins in existence - in proportion this is like $200B.  I am pretty sure that this will have negative impact on whole perception of bitcoin - guilty by association.  This might be irrational - but this is how things work and by the way MtGox also can default at some point - of course this is quite different from the pirate scam - but it is much more vulnerable then people think it is and the pirate business is a good reminder about that.

[kentrolla]

This is a scam that managed to get 1/20 of all bitcoins in existence - in proportion this is like $200B.  I am pretty sure that this will have negative impact on whole perception of bitcoin - guilty by association.  This might be irrational - but this is how things work and by the way MtGox also can default at some point - of course this is quite different from the pirate scam - but it is much more vulnerable then people think it is and the pirate business is a good reminder about that.

first of all. Pirate never managed to get 500k btc.  That's just what he owes after you factor in the interest.

2nd. MtGox will never default.  They make soooo much money it's absurd.   The only weakness I see in MtGox is if they get some sort of legal pressure.

[RedGolpe]

Mt. Gox cannot technically default, as it does not lend money to anyone. It just connects a buyer and a seller, and profits on the transfer.

[ElectricMucus]

This is a scam that managed to get 1/20 of all bitcoins in existence

That's why I don't think the BTC would be sold anytime in the near future. The potential gain of economic power is immense in case bitcoin ever becomes of some significant importance. And if anything can be said about pirate it is that he has plenty of ideas, some of which can certainly make him some important financial player on the global scale.
I don't think he wouldn't care for that opportunity.

[k9quaint]

How many donations did pirate40 collect I wonder?
I am not interested in what is owed, only what was donated to him.

[DeathAndTaxes]

How many donations did pirate40 collect I wonder?
I am not interested in what is owed, only what was donated to him.

Nobody except Pirate knows how many wagers were sent his way.

You can however make some educated guesses by looking at the 500K BTC owed and the timespan between the average wager and the closing.

My SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) assumptions:
1) The PirateDice system has been operating for roughly 10 months however it really only got large (PPT, gblse bonds, forum buzz, shill supporters) in the last two months.  

2) While some gamblers withdrew their winnings most compounded or increased their winning wagers

3) We will take Pirate at his word that the total unpaid wagers & unpaid paper winnings were ~500K BTC as closing.

4) The average unpaid wager is roughly 12 weeks old then 500K / (1.07^10) = ~220K BTC wagered.

5) 15% of the total amount wagered were paid out with winnings.  These shorter term paid winnings had an average age of 8 weeks.  thus ~60K BTC (220 * 0.15 * 1.07^8) was paid out and not re-wagered.

My SWAG conclusion:  
~220K BTC were wagered.  
~60K BTC were paid out as winning and not re-wagered.  
PirateDice has ~180K BTC in assets (or more like USD equivalent)
PirateDice owes ~561K BTC (500K * 1.07 * 1.05)

Once again a total SWAG it likely is completely wrong but probably in the ballpark.

[proudhon]

How many donations did pirate40 collect I wonder?
I am not interested in what is owed, only what was donated to him.

Nobody except Pirate knows how many wagers were sent his way.

You can however make some educated guesses by looking at the 500K BTC owed and the timespan between the average wager and the closing.

My SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) assumptions:
1) The PirateDice system has been operating for roughly 10 months however it really only got large (PPT, gblse bonds, forum buzz, shill supporters) in the last two months.  

2) While some gamblers withdrew their winnings most compounded or increased their winning wagers

3) We will take Pirate at his word that the total unpaid wagers & unpaid paper winnings were ~500K BTC as closing.

4) The average unpaid wager is roughly 12 weeks old then 500K / (1.07^10) = ~220K BTC wagered.

5) 15% of the total amount wagered were paid out with winnings.  These shorter term paid winnings had an average age of 8 weeks.  thus ~60K BTC (220 * 0.15 * 1.07^8) was paid out and not re-wagered.

My SWAG conclusion:  
~220K BTC were wagered.  
~60K BTC were paid out as winning and not re-wagered.  
PirateDice has ~180K BTC in assets (or more like USD equivalent)
PirateDice owes ~561K BTC (500K * 1.07 * 1.05)

Once again a total SWAG it likely is completely wrong but probably in the ballpark.

That squares well with the claim he made to me on IRC that, at the time, he could drop the price to $1.15 or so.  At the time that would have taken around 200,000 BTCs.

[zby]

Mt. Gox cannot technically default, as it does not lend money to anyone. It just connects a buyer and a seller, and profits on the transfer.

Oh yes - they can default.  Lending money is not the only way to lose money - they can be hacked, get into legal trouble and last but not least one of their employee can run away with all the bitcoins in their accounts.

[RedGolpe]

Oh yes - they can default.  Lending money is not the only way to lose money - they can be hacked, get into legal trouble and last but not least one of their employee can run away with all the bitcoins in their accounts.

That's bankruptcy, not default. Default means one can't repay their debt, and apart from the small amounts deposited from time to time in one's account for the few minutes before a transaction, which are instrumental to the service provided, Mt Gox has no debt with anyone.