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中国版QE传闻再起 业内更看好货币工具扩容
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Topic: 中国版QE传闻再起 业内更看好货币工具扩容 (Read 255 times)
Zhan21
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中国版QE传闻再起 业内更看好货币工具扩容
April 28, 2015, 12:37:05 AM
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4月27日,中国版QE的热度再次被点燃,据当天路透中文报道,如无意外中国将很快宣布新一轮量化宽松政策(QE)——中国央行将通过直接购买商业银行资产的方式投放基础货币,以此撬动信用投放、拉低全社会的长期融资成本、减缓通缩压力并推动经济增长。
此外,德意志交易所旗下通讯社MNI援引未具名人士的话称,中国央行正在讨论采取非常规政策措施来重建资产负债表、振兴经济,其中包括从市场里直接购买地方政府债券。
虽然以上两则消息都未得到来自央行或相关部门的回应。但A股市场在周一再次出现大涨,显示出当前市场对政策面的风吹草动异常敏感。同时,昨日人民币兑美元即期午后急速下跌,收盘报6.2206元创逾一个月新低,日跌幅高达0.41%,为逾13个月来最大。
“买地方债违背改革目标”
事实上,这并不是中国版QE概念的首次出现,今年3月市场上就有关于“10万亿中国版QE即将出台”的消息流传。当时财政部副部长朱光耀澄清称:“中国版QE是不实之词。地方债务置换是在国务院对地方债批准规模之下、企业与商业银行之间的契约行为。”
而从最近江苏省地方债未能如期发行的实际情况来看,银行与地方政府之间的“买卖”还很难谈成。“这还是一个经济实力很强的东部省份的地方债,很难想象一些中西部地区省份的债会怎么样。”一位商业银行投行部门人士对《每日经济新闻》记者表示,流动性和收益率都很低的地方债对商业银行的吸引力很低。
此前有消息称,为鼓励商业银行购买地方债,央行可能考虑通过允许抵押该类债券以向商业银行提供流动性。交银国际发表研究报告称,央行可能允许商业银行以地方债为抵押获得央行资金,这可以视为某种程度的地方债务货币化。这种操作一方面减轻了政府的债务压力,另一方面又对冲了外汇占款的萎缩,实现了基础货币的投放。“这也仅仅是一种可能性,涉及更高层面的政策布局,但至少目前我们没有接收到相关的文件说法。”上述银行人士称。
对于传闻的央行或将直接从市场购买地方政府债券,具体操作方式此前并无先例可循。但一位市场分析人士认为,如果真的实行,那么与以前财政为地方债兜底没有什么不同,缺乏约束力,“底线太低”。
实际上,这也不符合央行一贯以来谨慎的行事风格,“从改革的角度来讲,直接购买地方债券将违背财政改革的目标,而财政改革旨在约束地方政府的借贷行为,让借贷过程更加透明化。”汇丰银行此前在一次报告中指出。
QE效果不如降准降息
“购买商业银行资产,购买地方政府债券,以及对国开行、进出口行和农发行三家政策性银行的注资行为”,一起构成了传言中中国版QE的主要内容,显示出在一季度各项经济数据表现疲弱后,对政府需要加强稳定经济增长信心的迫切需求。“如果这些政策得以落实,对银行的流动性补充是非常有益的。”一家大型商业银行资金部人士表示。但是,他对央行是否已经到了必须用这样的手段来补充流动性仍持保留看法,中国现阶段基准利率仍远高于零,存款准备金率也有很大下调空间,不论是直接降息还是降准,都能起到稳定流动性、引导实际利率下行的作用,而且效果更为直接。
此外,包括一些定向流动性工具,央行也未减少使用频率。上述分析人士则认为,PSL合法抵押物范围的扩大,依然是近期的最优选项。
至于资金如何流向有真实需求的实体经济,依然是一个绕不过去的问题。对于商业银行来说,当前的流动性水平并不紧张,但对实体经济并不高的预期使其无法寻找到足够多的优质贷款对象。扩张同业资产或者通过种种途径“向虚”,较投入实体而言是一种风险更低收益更高的办法。据海通证券分析,到2015年一季度末,理财资金通过这四个渠道流入股市的规模已近1万亿元。
来源:万敏 《每日经济新闻》
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中国版QE传闻再起 业内更看好货币工具扩容
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