Bold statement: Next target is low ~$700s (Awaiting scream of laughter)

[Amph]

I don't think we'll even see the price going over $600 in entire 2016 let alone 'low $700'. My target for 2016 is around ~$500 which is a fair estimate.

don't base your prediction on the current price, for estimating the future, for all we know it could reach 1k this year, better to leave the past behind, It does not reflect the direction of bitcoin

[8up]

Another random person making prediction. You have anything to back it up?

Actually, there are so many small observations. It's hard to name them all...

• First of all, look at the 2011 correction. Besides the bitstamp flash crash (exaggeration) you almost perfectly can align the last 3 or 4 major moves to our current correction. Guess where we are.
• No downtrend lasts forever except, there is no left value in a tech, a company or a currency (but then it goes to zero nevertheless). I think the recent investment of more than one major financial player is the clear opposite of "no value left".
• Sentiment is overly bearish. All major analysts (see here and on tradingview suspect declining prices). All of them have a big fellowship. Which means most of the market participants should have positioned themselves accordingly. Bulls are ridiculed or ignored alot these days. No one dares to publish a bullish marketperspective. And the bulls in here, who are trolling at the moment, are not the ones with the big bags.
• ~$220 is an established quadruple bottom. If price would want to go lower, there would be no better time than now. Still it hasn't happend.
• It was to expect, that Wallstreet would not pay a premium for entering the market. Since the low in January you can assume big accumulation. This goes hand in hand with investing in companies like coinbase or circle
• Bitcoin is slowly warming up with other communities (not just crypto-anarchists and speculants)
• Media is overly positive since the beginning of 2015

In Bitcoin terms the doubling of the price is not a big move. Just think of how many people bitcoin have on their radar. And now think of yourself, when you bought in. There is a lag between understanding, the purpose to buy in and the actual act.

[1Referee]

I don't think we'll even see the price going over $600 in entire 2016 let alone 'low $700'. My target for 2016 is around ~$500 which is a fair estimate.

don't base your prediction on the current, price for estimating the future, for all we know it could reach 1k this year, better to leave the past behind, It does not reflect the direction of bitcoin

Lol. $1000 this years doesn't make sense for even a second. It's very healthy to have a $100 gain per year. What's not healthy is dreaming about things that won't happen.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I'd like to think that we could reach & consolidate between 400-500 USD before the end of 2015.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

It's very healthy to have a $100 gain per year.

A linear gain in the price year after year is one thing that definitely doesn't make sense.

[Gargulan]

It's very healthy to have a $100 gain per year.

A linear gain in the price year after year is one thing that definitely doesn't make sense.

Exponential growth. The way human reproduce and make babies.

[ensurance982]

It's very healthy to have a $100 gain per year.

A linear gain in the price year after year is one thing that definitely doesn't make sense.

Yeah, exactly. Also, with Bitcoin there's still quite a low base of people having bought into it. As soon as the media reports go up, the buying pressure goes through the roof, and a bubble emerges. Unlike other assets, there really seems to be this "adoption cycle" we're experiencing with BTC. It also increases the base of people using BTC, apart from pushing the price up, as well.

[minerpumpkin]

I don't think we'll even see the price going over $600 in entire 2016 let alone 'low $700'. My target for 2016 is around ~$500 which is a fair estimate.

don't base your prediction on the current, price for estimating the future, for all we know it could reach 1k this year, better to leave the past behind, It does not reflect the direction of bitcoin

Lol. $1000 this years doesn't make sense for even a second. It's very healthy to have a $100 gain per year. What's not healthy is dreaming about things that won't happen.

We could very well have an increase of $1000 this year. We've seen this in 2013 already. But a rise of $1000 per year from then on out is off the table, I agree. In a couple of years, though, $1000 maybe aren't that much of a rise, anymore. Bitcoin has this exponential growth thing still going for it, you know?

[spazzdla]

A truly limitied supply will throw manipulators right off.  For 100's .. 1000's of years they have been able to endlessly print new money or promises of gold.. 

Many of you understand BTC is something new, many understand it allows you to do a lot of things a lowly peseant has never been able to do throught all of history, very very very few understand what potential this has good and bad as probably even less can see how easily it could be used to control the entire population.

I for see a massive bubble than a hard fork to a UN/BRICs controlled bitcoin.

[minerpumpkin]

A truly limitied supply will throw manipulators right off.  For 100's .. 1000's of years they have been able to endlessly print new money or promises of gold.. 

Many of you understand BTC is something new, many understand it allows you to do a lot of things a lowly peseant has never been able to do throught all of history, very very very few understand what potential this has good and bad as probably even less can see how easily it could be used to control the entire population.

I for see a massive bubble than a hard fork to a UN/BRICs controlled bitcoin.

In the endgame of Bitcoin this is certainly correct, BUT right now we're still experiencing a very inflationary phase of Bitcoin. Only a huge influx of new people, and thus FIAT money, is counteracting that inflation at the moment. And right now, there isn't enough of it entering the Bitcoin ecosystem! The buying pressure isn't high enough!

[ensurance982]

A truly limitied supply will throw manipulators right off.  For 100's .. 1000's of years they have been able to endlessly print new money or promises of gold.. 

Many of you understand BTC is something new, many understand it allows you to do a lot of things a lowly peseant has never been able to do throught all of history, very very very few understand what potential this has good and bad as probably even less can see how easily it could be used to control the entire population.

I for see a massive bubble than a hard fork to a UN/BRICs controlled bitcoin.

Even if the supply is "truly limited", the debate over a reasonable price for Bitcoin is still going very strong. We simply don't know whether it it $1, $50, $235, or $1000 or even $100'000. Slow accumulation can potentially be the best strategy for people who believe in the long-term success of Bitcoin!

[Amph]

I don't think we'll even see the price going over $600 in entire 2016 let alone 'low $700'. My target for 2016 is around ~$500 which is a fair estimate.

don't base your prediction on the current, price for estimating the future, for all we know it could reach 1k this year, better to leave the past behind, It does not reflect the direction of bitcoin

Lol. $1000 this years doesn't make sense for even a second. It's very healthy to have a $100 gain per year. What's not healthy is dreaming about things that won't happen.

do you have a crystal ball that work to say so? in 2013 they would have said the same thing before the 1200 peak, but then it did happen, so it's not impossible like you think, actually it's far away from being impossible

1k is an easy task, you just some few strong rich guys playing with the market and you are done

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

We'll see some more hovering around the 200-300 level in the next weeks. After that we'll be reaching ~$700 (quite fast) followed by a correction to the low ~$400s. After that we'll have a boring, but stable time till mid 2016. Good for merchant adoption and inviting your friends to the party,...

This is a speculation based only on gut feeling and some minor observations.

Let the shitstorm begin! 

I've been thinking this for a while. A long term 700 is reasonable, with fluctuations of 200-300, then a nice rally to 500, with a big dip, and a steady rise towards 600-700 territory.

[Chef Ramsay]

I don't think we'll even see the price going over $600 in entire 2016 let alone 'low $700'. My target for 2016 is around ~$500 which is a fair estimate.

don't base your prediction on the current, price for estimating the future, for all we know it could reach 1k this year, better to leave the past behind, It does not reflect the direction of bitcoin

Yeah, so many people have been shell shocked that they forget what Bitcoin can do or where it can go when it's on a roll and the panic buying sets in.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

I'd like to think that we could reach & consolidate between 400-500 USD before the end of 2015.

no way, hopefully it won't go under 150$

[minerpumpkin]

I don't think we'll even see the price going over $600 in entire 2016 let alone 'low $700'. My target for 2016 is around ~$500 which is a fair estimate.

don't base your prediction on the current, price for estimating the future, for all we know it could reach 1k this year, better to leave the past behind, It does not reflect the direction of bitcoin

Yeah, so many people have been shell shocked that they forget what Bitcoin can do or where it can go when it's on a roll and the panic buying sets in.

I agree, people seem to forget that BTC climbed up from  less than a cent per coin to over $1000 over the course of a measly 5 years. Then again, in 2013, we had this one exchange in Japan (operated by an especially Frappuccino-loving person) that most likely inflated the price quite a bit. It's very difficult to figure out the 'real price' of a coin these days, and that's what makes predicting and trading the current markets so difficult.

[Erdogan]

The importance of positive news could come with a huge time delay, like a year or two, and could be the reason the good news doesn't seem to do anything.

I agree with the OP, but sentiment is really hard to estimate.

And that computation is completely out in the outback, because I did not use the correct number of used addresses. I used the number of addresses used in a day, but I should have used the current number of addresses in the UTXO set. So by the same method of estimation, the number of users is (could be) 7 million.



Someone made this, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Em5nZDhxx1zsngaDZC79sqzrqJtEN2xzbmAycEmurSU/pubchart?oid=1505937488&format=interactive

[8up]

I have to somehow correct OP predicition, as I see signs (hence a higher probability) of testing the bottom (of january) once more. Therefore, I am positioning myself now for one last test of the ~$160 area in the next 2 weeks. After that I expect a steady rise to ~$700 (summer) with ~$400 (autumn) following. After reaching this target, we could be in for the most boring time of bitcoin history. Real rallye (if crypto is still a thing then) will happen some time after the halving (beginning of 2017).

If the train stops one more time at platform 160, this will be the final call for the bears to board the train. Keep in mind: This is not a prerequisite for the above (& OP) predicition

Either way. In the midterm we will see higher prices.


For further interest in my reasoning read the thread.

[klee]

When & if 250 is broken it will be the 150$ equivalent...

[vrzo]

My long shot: Next target is $2500 although I'd prefer 10k.