How SOON will the BTC rally begin?

[busygin]

... but the downside risk is still huge considering that the market has to absorb about $700K of newly mined BTC every day (at the current price).

It doesn't have to absorb it until it's put on exchange or sold OTC.

Miners have to pay their expenses and make a living. Some newly mined coins are stashed, but at the same time, other miners might be selling some previously stashed older coins. I would still expect 3000 BTC/day to be a reasonable selling pressure estimate coming from mining.

[Ibian]

I don't think the price  will rally in the near future, even after the halving in 2016, it is no matter of the supply, it is the matter of demand. The users base needs to increase (adoption rate) , the price will increase at the same time! It cannot rally dramatically overnight!

If price doesn't go up with the halving half the network will have to shut down.

Demand shouldn't have to depend on block halving. If demand is there in sufficient numbers then halving makes no difference.

It has exploded upwards and plummeted, been declared dead and the saviour of all of us. All the while the exact same number of coins were being pumped out.

Not demand. Supply.

[chaosknight]

next big bitcoin rally will when reward halving occurs. before that we can see some price bumps but can't expect a big rally

[Chef Ramsay]

It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

[Ibian]

It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.

[pleaseexplain]

It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.

true it will in theory cost twice as much but may not in practice. A good example is here in new zealand where a smelter takes quite a bit of our total power at a very low price. When that was to be raised by the power provider (a government owned company) the government gave it 400 million so it could "afford' not to raise its prices so much. (the smelter  had said the higher prices would mean 400 job losses in a high unemployment region so the government caved in). Chinese miners may have deals that have the same effect ie as the price rises it is deemed in the public interest if the state subsidies things so the actual effective price rise is nothing like double.

[Amph]

next big bitcoin rally will when reward halving occurs. before that we can see some price bumps but can't expect a big rally

i expect a big raise before that to be honest, because everyone know there will be a raise by then, thus everyone will begin to buy before that, and therefore many others will start buying even before those who know that will raise, starting a reverse chain, that it will bring a price increase much early

[fox19891989]

next big bitcoin rally will when reward halving occurs. before that we can see some price bumps but can't expect a big rally

i expect a big raise before that to be honest, because everyone know there will be a raise by then, thus everyone will begin to buy before that, and therefore many others will start buying even before those who know that will raise, starting a reverse chain, that it will bring a price increase much early

I am agree with you guys, next big rise may happen when reward halving occurs, which needs 2 more years

It's a long long time, guys we need make more fiat now and buy enough bitcoin before that rise, so we will catch that huge rise in the future, let's be rich.

Maybe next big rise will happen before that because of good apps, or some countries have financial crisis. Like 2013 huge rise.

[Chef Ramsay]

It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.

I guess what I meant is that I've been seeing so many people mention that the halving will be the salvation from this bear market in and of itself. I'm well aware that coinage will immediately become scarcer by 50% upon the halving but I was insinuating that other tools will becoming into the market that will drive the price bullish prior to and perhaps w/ full knowledge of the upcoming halving.

[Chef Ramsay]

next big bitcoin rally will when reward halving occurs. before that we can see some price bumps but can't expect a big rally

i expect a big raise before that to be honest, because everyone know there will be a raise by then, thus everyone will begin to buy before that, and therefore many others will start buying even before those who know that will raise, starting a reverse chain, that it will bring a price increase much early

Yeah this in conjunction w/ the newer apps/ETFs/exchanges/whatever else the will be coming is what I was driving at to bump the price in the short to mid term and putting a stake in the bear market. The halving is just an inevitable part of the protocol that's beneficial outside of market forces and developments.

[neordicICE]

not for another few years at least and it wont be like last time it will take much longer to make the same gains.

[ajareselde]

Well obviously, if nothing major changes, the next rally will be halving-related. But instead of believing that the price will pump up with the halving being closer, it
is also possible that the pump will begin after the halving is done, when everyone who expected double returns starts doubting pump will even happen. Then, when every weak hand sells, booom.
In the end its all pure gamble, there are just too many variables involved for anyone to be certain.

[diodio1]

bitcoin now is suck but i believe in a couple years  they will go $10,000 !

[Zarathustra]

next big bitcoin rally will when reward halving occurs. before that we can see some price bumps but can't expect a big rally

i expect a big raise before that to be honest, because everyone know there will be a raise by then, thus everyone will begin to buy before that, and therefore many others will start buying even before those who know that will raise, starting a reverse chain, that it will bring a price increase much early

I am agree with you guys, next big rise may happen when reward halving occurs, which needs 2 more years

It's a long long time, guys we need make more fiat now and buy enough bitcoin before that rise, so we will catch that huge rise in the future, let's be rich.

Maybe next big rise will happen before that because of good apps, or some countries have financial crisis. Like 2013 huge rise.

Next halving date will be in summer 2016. "2013 huge rise" happened around and because of the last halving.

[ensurance982]

When/If we break through $260 we might see some quick buying action. It remains to be seen whether we bounce off of $305/$315 or go through that. If we manage to take those hurdles, as well, it's moon time. At that point we're pretty much definitely in a bull market again. I don't know of many charts that may suggest otherwise!

[minerpumpkin]

It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.

I guess what I meant is that I've been seeing so many people mention that the halving will be the salvation from this bear market in and of itself. I'm well aware that coinage will immediately become scarcer by 50% upon the halving but I was insinuating that other tools will becoming into the market that will drive the price bullish prior to and perhaps w/ full knowledge of the upcoming halving.

Exactly, the exact consequences and procedure is crystal clear. The market, on the other hand, is anything but that. It will already be priced in now - to a small degree, of course. And it will be priced in over the following months after the halving. Just take a look at how the last halving took place, I think that's a good and valid reference point.

[bassclef]

It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.

I guess what I meant is that I've been seeing so many people mention that the halving will be the salvation from this bear market in and of itself. I'm well aware that coinage will immediately become scarcer by 50% upon the halving but I was insinuating that other tools will becoming into the market that will drive the price bullish prior to and perhaps w/ full knowledge of the upcoming halving.

Exactly, the exact consequences and procedure is crystal clear. The market, on the other hand, is anything but that. It will already be priced in now - to a small degree, of course. And it will be priced in over the following months after the halving. Just take a look at how the last halving took place, I think that's a good and valid reference point.

Right, markets generally look ahead 6 months to a year, so the halving will be priced in long before it actually occurs.

[moko666]

Poll result is making me both happy and sad happy that more people believe that BTC will rally in this month  ;)and sad because top one is sept 2016, thats a big time to wait 
i will stick with may 2015.

[neordicICE]

Poll result is making me both happy and sad happy that more people believe that BTC will rally in this month  ;)and sad because top one is sept 2016, thats a big time to wait 
i will stick with may 2015.

No rally this month dude. Its gonna take time Like I explained earlier. Just wait it out and you'll be ok.

[ssmc2]

If you believe in BTC and understand the implications of its design then it doesn't matter when the next rally is. It will come when the time is right. Chill.