The Pegasus Vanguard vs. Bitcoin Challenge, resolves May 1st, 2016.

[americanpegasus]

I am looking for up to three other individuals to make wagers with.  
  
The wagers are simple:  
  
On May 1st, 2016 at 1700 ET the 12-month return on bitcoin will double the 12-month return on the best performing Vanguard index fund listed on this site:  
  
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/all-vanguard-funds      
  
The wager will be for 1 bitcoin if I win *or* for the US dollar value of [the cost of a bitcoin today] + [interest those dollars would have earned in the top Vanguard index fund] if I lose. 
    
Unfortunately it is difficult to establish who I can trust here, so I only wish to wager with individuals with established multi-year (3+ preferred) Reddit accounts with high karma.  I have never welshed on a bet or let a transaction go sour in all my years online, so I am to be trusted.  I will make the final determination of who I will accept for the wagers, based on their account history.  
  
If you really think bitcoin is a bad investment, let's see you back that statement up with skin and take this *poor fool's* money.  
  
Because by this time next year... We both know what will happen.   😄

[americanpegasus]

Revised the terms of the offer to be far more attractive because people were so scared of just how much bitcoin will rise in the next 12 months. 
 
As you can see, we are have tons of idiot trolls saying retarded shit about the price collapsing to $100 but none of them will actually put money on the line because they know the shit they say is idiotic and blatantly untrue.

[hellscabane]

Just gonna say, the amount of gain for an opposing party is likely going to be around $60-$70 (assuming a person buys a bitcoin now, which in this type of derivative-like contract, someone should do).

The offset is that if the price is more than $350 in one year, you'll likely lose.

With that, a person is looking at a 25-30% gain in one year at a risk of losing $235. So someone is looking at a risk ratio of around 4 just on this fundamental.

On the other hand, your utility-based maximum risk is likely going to be around $180 with no real cap on your maximum gain. This is because you probably have a bitcoin, so if the price goes down, you'd buy a coin in one year; if the price goes up you'd take the hit of the spread and give one of the coins you already have. Along a spread of prices, your risk value averages to $180.

Personally, I wouldn't take this bet.