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长假期间没有什么“治堵良方”
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Topic: 长假期间没有什么“治堵良方” (Read 266 times)
healtheworld
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长假期间没有什么“治堵良方”
May 02, 2015, 02:00:29 AM
#1
不出所料,五一小长假的第一天,北京周边公路如约暴堵。尽管昨天(5月1日)天气并不十分宜人,但终于有了难得假期的市民,还是冒着长时间堵在路上的风险,奋不顾身地投入到滚滚车流之中,以至于各条高速公路的出京方向,再次成为蔚为壮观的“停车场”。
照例而来的,是对堵车原因的各种分析,和对治堵之策的各种设想、建言。譬如有人分析称,长假期间的高速路免费政策,诱导了人们的出行选择,造成远超平日的拥堵。言下之意,取消免费或许是治堵之策;另外的人则分析,免费诱导拥堵只是表象,真正的原因是免费的好日子太少,才导致人们集中出行,如果全年免费,则人们无需集中在长假的几天里领取“免费午餐”。但也有人以经济学术语分析,认为长假出行已成刚性需求,因此对通行费价格并不敏感,长假期间无论免费与否,都不会直接影响高速路的拥堵状况。因此,治堵之策不能仅仅盯住通行费用,而是应从休假制度入手,减少乃至取消集中长假,代之以带薪休假制度,把目前高度集中出行的需求,转变为相对均衡的分布。
尽管每一种分析似乎都言之成理且有理有据,但一个浅显的道理是,如果针对同一事实的原因分析太过多元且相互矛盾,则每一种被分析出的原因都可能并非根本原因,而且事实上也并不存在真正的“根本原因”。而如果在分析过程中陷入对“原因的原因的原因”的追究,则追究出的所谓终极原因,则很可能只是逻辑的推论,在现实中并没有实现的可能。
譬如,按照一般经济学原理,长假期间的高速路免费政策,可能有诱导出行的作用,但这种诱导作用究竟几何,又在多大程度上增加了长假期间的交通拥堵,几乎无法通过数学分析得出结论。而由于交通政策牵涉甚广,也不可能通过取消某次长假免费的方式进行政策实验。比较可行的方式,或许是通过对某些特殊时段的观察,间接分析各种政策的作用和导致长假拥堵的原因。比如选取5月某个既非长假、亦不免费的周末,分析北京周边高速公路的拥堵情况,或许可以间接推出各种条件对交通拥堵的影响。而实际的情况是,在这样的周末,北京周边高速公路大多也会陷入相当程度的拥堵。或许由此可以推论,私家车的大面积普及,人们郊游踏青需求的提升,春日时节的风和日丽、鸟语花香,人为拼凑的小长假,高速路免费的人性化政策,都是促成清明、五一小长假拥堵的原因。如此众多的原因共同发生作用,也就很难找出哪个原因是起到核心作用的“根本原因”,于是也就并不存在可以一招改变拥堵现状的“治堵良方”。
实际上,假日期间的交通拥堵,是世界绝大多数城市的通病,可以归入“大城市病”的重要症状之一。不得不在城市中心打拼,又向往亲近自然的生活,既是城市中产阶层日渐普及的风雅时尚,又是都市人群普遍罹患的现代病的主要症状之一。忍受高速路的拥堵之苦,很大程度上是不得不接受和忍受的病症,现代病一日不愈,这些病症很难单独消除。而就我们可以展望的时间内,看不到在现代化道路上刹车或掉头的可能。
如果一定寻找治堵良方,经济学也会给出答案,比如长假、周末等出行需求旺盛期间,大幅度提高高速公路的通行费用,利用价格杠杆让一部分人望路却步,就几乎可以随意控制高速公路的车流。但这样的虎狼之药,恐怕任何一个负责任的政府都不可能采用。所以,面对高速路暴堵的既定事实,每个人可以做出出行或不出行的选择,却不必期待任何人给出的“治堵良方”。
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