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证监会隔空喊话预警什么风险
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Topic: 证监会隔空喊话预警什么风险 (Read 288 times)
healtheworld
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证监会隔空喊话预警什么风险
May 02, 2015, 02:04:01 AM
#1
别看股市中的主力在做什么,多看看基本面情况,这是中小投资者最该做的事。而证监会的态度,是一个重要的参考方面。
受证监会再度提示风险等因素影响,28日沪深股市双双回调。其中上证综指盘中创下7年新高后,尾盘失守4500点整数位,并录得1%以上的跌幅。与此同时,沪市单日成交再度突破万亿元。证监会的隔空喊话,在内容上与前次并无明显区别。主旨还是股市有风险,投资需谨慎。不同的是这次列出了一些琅琅上口的警示词条。很大程度上,只发出入市辅导般的风险提示而没有量化分析内容,说服不了狂热的投资者。但证监会也只能做到这一步。股市自有其运行规律,其价值发现、风险积聚、风险释放过程,应当主要靠市场自发秩序完成,而不是强力的行政干预。如此,股市才能找到平稳发展的可靠支点。
这并非是说证监会一发再发风险提示没有意义。事实上,风险提示本身表明的就是管理层对股市形势的判断,其发出的信息是,本轮牛市已积累了足够风险,盲目宣称“牛市不言顶”“空中加油”之类,无益于股市的长期发展。
看一下本轮行情,就可知道证监会的风险指导并非无据。目前,A股除沪深300外的2368只股票平均市盈率已达到近80倍,接近于历史最高点位6124点时的82.02倍。其中,创业板平均市盈率达到了近百倍,最高的动态市盈率达18万倍。即使说股市只有适度泡沫存在才有发展,这泡沫也未免太大。因此,多数股票可以说已抵达估值顶部。在顶部继续上攻,如果不是不理性,就是做局吸引后来投资者。
与其他板块比较,市盈率偏低的蓝筹股可能是当前最安全的价值洼地。这或许能够解释为什么27日一个央企合并传言,石化双雄就能涨停,28日金融股继续护盘。但也要看到,石化双雄的股市表现与其业绩严重背离,而金融股维护大盘指数的同时,也难免有掩护主力出逃的嫌疑。
当然,从股市孜孜以求的题材看,仍有不少“富矿”可以挖掘。比如进一步释放流动性的政策倾向、“一带一路”概念、改革题材等等。市盈率给投资者提供的是风险厌恶的理由,题材给投资者提供的是风险偏好的理由。这是股市宽幅震荡,出现明显分化的关键原因。在这样一个谨慎与乐观情绪并存,资金仍然充足并不断涌入的阶段,股市的拐点也没有形成,强势整理或是常态。
但是,最终股市需要基本面去考量。股指是否与宏观形势脱节,股价是否与企业盈利能力脱节,多层次的衍生品体系能否发挥出对冲风险的作用,决定股市今后的走势。
别看股市中的主力在做什么,多看看基本面情况,这是中小投资者最该做的事。而证监会的态度,是一个重要的参考方面。
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