The next step: MPT

[bpd]

There are now 35,000 BTC of documented bets with Matthew N Wright:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajtx05YrHtIydFVHcGxLOExTbnhqajJLZmlSZUNtM3c#gid=0

Some of these participants have made substantial bets of up to 6,000 BTC.

The logical next step is for one or more of the bettors to issue Matthew-passthrough (MPT) bonds on the GLBSE. Who will be the first to do it?

[DeathAndTaxes]

If I thought there was any chance he would pay I would offer CDS (Credit default swaps) so gamblers could insure their winning bets against a default.

[bpd]

Well, by offering an MPT, we could determine the probability the market puts on Matthew paying out. If price of an MPT bond is X and price of a PPT bond is Y, then Prob(Matthew pays) = X/(1-Y)