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Author Topic: HungerCoins Invest: The odds are ever in your favor.  (Read 14254 times)
OneEyed
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September 09, 2012, 08:11:04 AM
 #161

I have sent various amounts (including 10BTC) repeatedly (thanks Python for that), and so far the money got returned every time Smiley

Care to teach everyone how to automate the betting? Smiley

No. I am ok with asserting some facts (my loans have been returned so far with the expected added amount, including several loans of 10 BTC), but I will not help people to send money to an unknown person who refuses to indicate who he represents or to give any guarantee that he won't run with the money (that could be done by escrowing some BTC with a trusted public person).

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September 09, 2012, 08:35:51 AM
 #162

I have sent various amounts (including 10BTC) repeatedly (thanks Python for that), and so far the money got returned every time Smiley

Care to teach everyone how to automate the betting? Smiley

No. I am ok with asserting some facts (my loans have been returned so far with the expected added amount, including several loans of 10 BTC), but I will not help people to send money to an unknown person who refuses to indicate who he represents or to give any guarantee that he won't run with the money (that could be done by escrowing some BTC with a trusted public person).


Fair enough. Smiley
OneEyed
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September 09, 2012, 02:28:08 PM
 #163

I just received a payout after 30 confirmations only. Is that expected?

Edit: never mind, blockchain.info is lagging 7 blocks behind, false alert Smiley

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September 10, 2012, 03:25:32 AM
 #164

Whoa! Can anyone explain to me what happened in this transacion I only sent 0.25BTC
https://blockchain.info/tx/1188ffc9c821717fcd5dd2e5c71c7e51ea3dd155e0686d11cb566b1b17cb2f90
Looks like HungerCoins just got a spitload of donations.

Feel like Donating/Tip some bitcoins to me? 17bruSwSkzwCqgGFjZ78Srizyy24eCKZF5
Mining? Use P2P Pool Nastyfans.org:9332
Successful transactions with: rate5, daking, Canaryinthemine, vs3 Among others
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September 10, 2012, 04:03:26 AM
 #165

Whoa! Can anyone explain to me what happened in this transacion I only sent 0.25BTC
https://blockchain.info/tx/1188ffc9c821717fcd5dd2e5c71c7e51ea3dd155e0686d11cb566b1b17cb2f90
Looks like HungerCoins just got a spitload of donations.
It looks like your client was cleverly using a transaction it was making anyway as a free opportunity to consolidate a bunch of small inputs it had lying around into a single, larger output, thus reducing the cost of your future transactions.

I am an employee of Ripple. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKatz
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September 10, 2012, 06:07:21 AM
 #166

Whoa! Can anyone explain to me what happened in this transacion I only sent 0.25BTC
https://blockchain.info/tx/1188ffc9c821717fcd5dd2e5c71c7e51ea3dd155e0686d11cb566b1b17cb2f90
Looks like HungerCoins just got a spitload of donations.
It looks like your client was cleverly using a transaction it was making anyway as a free opportunity to consolidate a bunch of small inputs it had lying around into a single, larger output, thus reducing the cost of your future transactions.

It also looks like your client paid less than the minimum standard fee.  What client did you use?

Just-Dice                 ██             
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Zillions
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September 10, 2012, 06:27:26 AM
 #167

It also looks like your client paid less than the minimum standard fee.  What client did you use?

blockchain.info/wallet

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miln40
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September 10, 2012, 09:19:23 PM
 #168

Worked fine for my 1 BTC with transactions on time.

My primary BTC address:
1M5oZcUzHGT3mzNeA73opLUdSPSpKL5NE3
OneEyed
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September 10, 2012, 09:48:01 PM
 #169

Whoa! Can anyone explain to me what happened in this transacion I only sent 0.25BTC
https://blockchain.info/tx/1188ffc9c821717fcd5dd2e5c71c7e51ea3dd155e0686d11cb566b1b17cb2f90
Looks like HungerCoins just got a spitload of donations.
It looks like your client was cleverly using a transaction it was making anyway as a free opportunity to consolidate a bunch of small inputs it had lying around into a single, larger output, thus reducing the cost of your future transactions.

Armory does that too, although if I remember the code correctly it limits itself to 5 inputs. Since the input addresses are all the same, this does not taint any address more than would have been with the original transaction.

Shermo
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September 11, 2012, 09:28:37 PM
 #170

Got my first match, only the last character though so 2% payback Smiley

Payment:
https://blockchain.info/tx/a9ec05de08c2748579f98ffb80c34e8527e627191bdb96726b6abdd2cf7e3798

Return:
https://blockchain.info/tx/f65baa369911865d8341f418c13b1fbac737aac99577318cd8e6ada745552a70
iamtheone
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September 12, 2012, 10:27:03 AM
 #171


Nice Smiley How many times you bet before getting it?
Shermo
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September 12, 2012, 11:21:48 AM
 #172

I'd have to check when I get home, but I think around 12 times? So I guess roughly close to the odds 1/16 Smiley

I guess you could increase your odds of a match by doing lots of smaller transactions, but then the 0.2% interest is pretty much eaten by transaction fees.
OneEyed
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September 12, 2012, 11:31:31 AM
 #173

I guess you could increase your odds of a match by doing lots of smaller transactions, but then the 0.2% interest is pretty much eaten by transaction fees.

Also, it will be 2% of a smaller amount, and won't change anything on the long term.

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September 12, 2012, 11:34:04 AM
 #174

Ooooh, it's from Hunger Games, this thing with the odds! It was really ringing a bell in my mind =]

My primary BTC address:
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Shermo
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September 12, 2012, 11:49:40 AM
 #175

Also, it will be 2% of a smaller amount, and won't change anything on the long term.

Thats also true, hence why I've just been rolling my small gambling pot through it a couple times a day and eventually hit a match after a few days Smiley
iamtheone
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September 12, 2012, 12:11:06 PM
 #176

I guess you could increase your odds of a match by doing lots of smaller transactions, but then the 0.2% interest is pretty much eaten by transaction fees.

Also, it will be 2% of a smaller amount, and won't change anything on the long term.

Actually it will, just a little. Eventually you will hit 3 or 4 digits. It's just a matter of time Smiley
And you can use electrum and lessen the transaction fees.
OneEyed
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September 12, 2012, 12:34:50 PM
 #177

I guess you could increase your odds of a match by doing lots of smaller transactions, but then the 0.2% interest is pretty much eaten by transaction fees.

Also, it will be 2% of a smaller amount, and won't change anything on the long term.

Actually it will, just a little. Eventually you will hit 3 or 4 digits. It's just a matter of time Smiley

What do you mean? Isn't the expected value this one?

Code:
20 * 1/65536 + 2 * 1/4096 + 0.2 * 1/256 + 0.02 * 1/16 + 0.002 * 61167/65536 = 112767/32768000 ~ 0.3441%

How would splitting into smaller amount help at increasing the expected value?

Fortega
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September 12, 2012, 01:43:52 PM
 #178

Code:
20 * 1/65536 + 2 * 1/4096 + 0.2 * 1/256 + 0.02 * 1/16 + 0.002 * 61167/65536 = 112767/32768000 ~ 0.3441%

Should be
Code:
20 * 1/65536 + 2*15/65536 + 0.2*(256-16)*65536 + ...

OneEyed
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September 12, 2012, 02:07:10 PM
 #179

Code:
20 * 1/65536 + 2 * 1/4096 + 0.2 * 1/256 + 0.02 * 1/16 + 0.002 * 61167/65536 = 112767/32768000 ~ 0.3441%

Should be
Code:
20 * 1/65536 + 2*15/65536 + 0.2*(256-16)*65536 + ...

You're right:

Code:
20 * 1/65536 + 2 * 15/65536 + 0.2 * 240/65536 + 0.02 * 3840/65536 + 0.002 * 61440/65536 = 3721/819200 ~ 0.4542%

Is it better?

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September 12, 2012, 03:08:01 PM
 #180

Yup, better Smiley
And you are right: splitting it in smaller values does not increase the avg percentage. It only reduces variance a bit.

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