May 3rd to May 14th diff thread. Picks are now closed!

[philipma1957]

+1.896666667% is the adjustment for each jump of this year!

yeah that big price drop we had in Jan to under 185 usd really has kept growth in check.

[philipma1957]

Early numbers are okay:


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty        (-2.18%)



https://www.coinbase.com    240 usd

More trivia

last 12 adjustments :

6 Negative 6 Positive


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

140 blocks made  on 5/3/2015    about   59 in this adjustment.   sooooo we are a bit behind pace  -1 or so.
130 blocks made  on 5/4/2015    this puts us at 15 behind pace

we have made 185 blocks we should be at 200 blocks

this is (-7.25%)

only 185 blocks do not give a pick  until 300 blocks. I will let you know when
Also    no changing your pick.  Just too much work.

 No picks yet.

[Kexkey]

Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

Pretty soon... https://bitcoinmagazine.com/20247/new-mining-chip-developed-sfards-becomes-efficient-chip-produced/

Hopefully the giant mining farms don't grab them before everyone else.

[philipma1957]

Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

Pretty soon... https://bitcoinmagazine.com/20247/new-mining-chip-developed-sfards-becomes-efficient-chip-produced/

Hopefully the giant mining farms don't grab them before everyone else.

We will have to wait and see if it does well at the wall. I also suspect if it mines well btc-ltc.

  ltc will take a solid price hit. Still they made a nice chip for ltc last year.  It was not good for btc or btc + ltc

maybe it has the same issues as last year.

[notlist3d]

Night bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,457,530,981 (-2.49%)
Adjust time:    After 1819 Blocks, About 13.0 days
Hashrate(?):    332,013,210 GH/s

Price of btc taken a little dive to 234.  So not the way we wanted it to move.

[alh]

The tables I saw for the SFARDS chip make it look like a step, but not a leap in efficiency. I don't mean this as a knock, just a recognition of the situation.

My bet is that they will try and get a serious premium for it's "LTC feature", and it will make it appear "overpriced" as a Bitcoin miner only.

Thank goodness this is a speculation thread and I don't have to reveal my overall ignorance of the LTC universe and it's machinations. 

[davejh]

+1.896666667% is the adjustment for each jump of this year!

I've been making a working assumption of about 2% for quite a while now. Of course it's difficult to test this theory over the short term because of variance issues (the variance is larger than the trend). The only thing that would change this would be a major shift in the BTC price again.

[notlist3d]

The tables I saw for the SFARDS chip make it look like a step, but not a leap in efficiency. I don't mean this as a knock, just a recognition of the situation.

My bet is that they will try and get a serious premium for it's "LTC feature", and it will make it appear "overpriced" as a Bitcoin miner only.

Thank goodness this is a speculation thread and I don't have to reveal my overall ignorance of the LTC universe and it's machinations. 

LTC has been a tough game.  I know i got out of the scrypt mining after having a A2 for a while.   Profits just were crazy low, and many took loses.

I am hoping they base their miner or the BTC side, if they do go scrypt I think profitable is much much harder.

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-2.18%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,606,398,388 (-2.18%)
Adjust time:   After 1772 Blocks, About 12.6 days
Hashrate(?):   336,061,940 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   8:20 (1.3 minutes ago)

We have 244 blocks made.     At 300 we can start picking.   Still negative at the moment.

[Mikestang]

I hope it stays negative all summer, woo! 

[philipma1957]

okay we are at block 1723  which means we did 293 blocks

At block     1716   we will have done 300 and picks will open up



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   ...........................    (-2.71%)


 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ ..............................................  (-1.66%)

I stick with my -1.01 to -1.25%   with my real pick as -1.11%

As I will give homage to seriouscoin.

So picks will open very soon.

[Mikestang]

If you look at the 9 month display you can see that difficulty is definitely plateauing off as this year progresses.  I wonder if we'll ever see a downward trend for network diff?  These next two years will be interesting, both with the halving coming up and with improvements in hardware efficiency (I think we've see all the significant speed increases we will see for ASICs).

[philipma1957]

If you look at the 9 month display you can see that difficulty is definitely plateauing off as this year progresses.  I wonder if we'll ever see a downward trend for network diff?  These next two years will be interesting, both with the halving coming up and with improvements in hardware efficiency (I think we've see all the significant speed increases we will see for ASICs).

yeah  price will be the ruler not diff.   if demand goes up and price goes up more gear will come on line.

You don't need great math skills to see swapping old gear for new gear and maintaining your hashrate works.

ie  2  s-3's  = 1th  burns 800 watts  

 1 s-5      =   1.15th  burns 680 watts

very small hash increase   but a solid watts decrease    

now it is hotter down clock the s-5 to 1th  drop watts to 520

exact same hash rate and 280 watts drop.

Big companies are not stupid now that they don't sell to miners that much they need to follow the formula above to make money.


300 block in picks are now open


-1.01 to -1.25% ------------------ Philipma1957

[ezeminer]

Bitcoinwisdom says that we are 300 blocks into the cycle.

I would like to start off by picking -5.49 to -5.25%
with a pick at -5.27%

[philipma1957]

WE ARE 300 blocks in picks are now open!

-5.26% to -5.50%---------------------- ezeminer------------------- note I corrected from -5.49 to -5.25%

-3.01% to -3.25% ----------------------jonnybravo0311

-1.01% to -1.25% ------------------ Philipma1957
-0.76% TO -1.00% --------------------- Lboss
right now we are a solid neg  (-3.04%) at bitcoinwisdom


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:   46,196,179,808 (-3.04%)
Adjust time:   After 1715 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):   335,688,740 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   17:10 (2.8 minutes ago)


lots of time to pick  about 4.5 days.  

blocks 1000 in
with
blocks 1016 left

[Lboss]

I want to pick (-0.76) - (-1.00)%

Thanks

[jonnybravo0311]

-3.01 to -3.25

[Jamphone]

-0.51 to -0.75 please!

[Mikestang]

You don't need great math skills to see swapping old gear for new gear and maintaining your hashrate works.

And, in the long run, makes Bitcoin more environmentally friendly, especially since a huge majority of the electricity poured into the network comes from burning coal.

My pick: -1.76% to -2.00%

[notlist3d]

-2.01% to -2.25 please!  Man people guess quick once this opens.