May 3rd to May 14th diff thread. Picks are now closed!

[notlist3d]

Were still above 240 but it's going awful close to under.  I really want it to switch directions and 240+ stay.

I guess we will see tonight what happens.  I think we might be under 240 again.

[philipma1957]

 http://btc.blockr.io/charts


5/3/2015    140 blocks----------- that is -   2   since about half were the last adjustment and half were this adjustment
5/4/2015    130 blocks----------  that is - 14
5/5/2015    154 blocks----------  that is +10
5/6/2015    157 blocks----------  that is +13
5/7/2015    148 blocks----------  that is +4
5/8/2015    143 blocks----------  that is -1
5/9/2015    140 blocks----------  that is -4

so maybe +6 blocks  after  907 blocks are made  at the moment   so 907 vs 901 =


that is (+0.66%)  for a 'real' time number.


we are at the 1109 block mark.  basically pretty flat   very hard to predict up or down  -1.5 to  +2 could all happen.




We are kind of in a prolonged flat spell.  I feel many companies want to do something but are afraid to drop a bomb.
I still go back to the new gear is out and about and some companies just kept hash flat while cutting power costs.
Waiting for someone to make a sprint and add 25 ph ot 50 ph but this may not happen.


Boy more of that same -1 to +1 week after week.


But flat works very well as price stays neat the 240 usd mark---- S3's can turn a profit at .09 cents a kwatt----- pretty amazing
 a 10 month old asic can still make money

[philipma1957]

One more thing the 1000 block mark should be here in about 15 hours close to 12 noon EST on Mom's day.  I will post a warning when we get really close.

[notlist3d]

we are at the 1109 block mark.  basically pretty flat   very hard to predict up or down  -1.5 to  +2 could all happen.

I would agree with this.  It's hard to tell and some of it could be luck.  I am hoping we get negative but small plus is ok.

With BTC staying above 240 right now anything in that range is not to bad for trade in higher btc price.

[notlist3d]

Morning is looking even better on bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,742,492,731 (-1.89%)
Adjust time:    After 1062 Blocks, About 7.5 days
Hashrate(?):    328,513,627 GH/s

And were at 242 per btc.  So nice to stay above the 240 mark.

[philipma1957]

We have 1030 blocks left which =  976  made   So 24 blocks left to closing time for your picks.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-1.76%)

[philipma1957]

five more blocks to cut off point https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

we are at 1021 blocks left when this goes to 1016 blocks we cut off.

current list is below------------ please check it for your pick or add a pick if you have not done so

Picks are now open!

-5.26% to -5.50%   ---------------------- ezeminer

-4.01% to -4.25%  ----------------------- Bittings
-3.76% to -4.00%  ----------------------- RoadStress
-3.51% to -3.75%    --------------------- ACCTseller
-3.26% to -3.50%   --------------------- zubelutte
-3.01% to -3.25%   ----------------------jonnybravo0311
-2.76% to -3.00%   ---------------------- Biodom
-2.51% to -2.75%  ---------------------  Kexkey
-2.26% to -2.50%   ---------------------- shapeshift
-2.01% to -2.25%   --------------------- notlist3d
-1.76% to -2.00%   ---------------------- Mikestang
-1.51% to -1.76%   ---------------------- wpt1wpt1
-1.26% to -1.50%   ----------------------valkir
-1.01% to -1.25% ------------------ Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   --------------------- Lboss
-0.51% to -0.75%   ---------------------- Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50%   ---------------------- SunnyIgor
-0.01% to -0.25%   ---------------------- Zorrocoin
  0.00% ---------------------------------- EMIF
+0.01% to +0.25% -------------------- zebedee
+0.26% to +0.50% -------------------- eretron
+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- Last of the  V8s
+0.76% to +1.00% -------------------- davejh
+1.01% to +1.25% -------------------- kenscho
+1.26% to +1.50% -------------------- tlhIlwI
+1.51% to +1.75% -------------------- gallery2000
+1.76% to +2.00% -------------------- tss
+2.01% to +2.25% -------------------- mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% -------------------- cakir
+2.51% to +2.76% -------------------- alh
+3.01% to +3.25% -------------------- tertius993
+3.26% to +3.50% -------------------- RealMalatesta

[Bittings]

Just before closing, I want to try a long shot 
Can I take -4.01% to -4.25% ?

[philipma1957]

Just before closing, I want to try a long shot  
Can I take -4.01% to -4.25% ?

yes you can

look below:

Picks are now open!

-5.26% to -5.50%   ---------------------- ezeminer

-4.01% to -4.25%  ----------------------- Bittings
-3.76% to -4.00%  ----------------------- RoadStress
-3.51% to -3.75%    --------------------- ACCTseller
-3.26% to -3.50%   --------------------- zubelutte
-3.01% to -3.25%   ----------------------jonnybravo0311
-2.76% to -3.00%   ---------------------- Biodom
-2.51% to -2.75%  ---------------------  Kexkey
-2.26% to -2.50%   ---------------------- shapeshift
-2.01% to -2.25%   --------------------- notlist3d
-1.76% to -2.00%   ---------------------- Mikestang
-1.51% to -1.76%   ---------------------- wpt1wpt1
-1.26% to -1.50%   ----------------------valkir
-1.01% to -1.25% ------------------ Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   --------------------- Lboss
-0.51% to -0.75%   ---------------------- Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50%   ---------------------- SunnyIgor
-0.01% to -0.25%   ---------------------- Zorrocoin
  0.00% ---------------------------------- EMIF
+0.01% to +0.25% -------------------- zebedee
+0.26% to +0.50% -------------------- eretron
+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- Last of the  V8s
+0.76% to +1.00% -------------------- davejh
+1.01% to +1.25% -------------------- kenscho
+1.26% to +1.50% -------------------- tlhIlwI
+1.51% to +1.75% -------------------- gallery2000
+1.76% to +2.00% -------------------- tss
+2.01% to +2.25% -------------------- mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% -------------------- cakir
+2.51% to +2.76% -------------------- alh
+3.01% to +3.25% -------------------- tertius993
+3.26% to +3.50% -------------------- RealMalatesta

[notlist3d]

Bitwisodom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,900,803,905 (-1.56%)
Adjust time:    After 1016 Blocks, About 7.1 days

Looks like my -2.01 was to wishful of thinking I dont think we will hit that low at this point now.

Price dropping slightly to 239.  Hopefully it will switch directions, but guess we will see.

[philipma1957]

Picks are now CLOSED!

-5.26% to -5.50%   ---------------------- ezeminer

-4.01% to -4.25%  ----------------------- Bittings
-3.76% to -4.00%  ----------------------- RoadStress
-3.51% to -3.75%    --------------------- ACCTseller
-3.26% to -3.50%   --------------------- zubelutte
-3.01% to -3.25%   ----------------------jonnybravo0311
-2.76% to -3.00%   ---------------------- Biodom
-2.51% to -2.75%  ---------------------  Kexkey
-2.26% to -2.50%   ---------------------- shapeshift
-2.01% to -2.25%   --------------------- notlist3d
-1.76% to -2.00%   ---------------------- Mikestang
-1.51% to -1.76%   ---------------------- wpt1wpt1
-1.26% to -1.50%   ----------------------valkir
-1.01% to -1.25% ------------------ Philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%   --------------------- Lboss
-0.51% to -0.75%   ---------------------- Jamphone
-0.26% to -0.50%   ---------------------- SunnyIgor
-0.01% to -0.25%   ---------------------- Zorrocoin
  0.00% ---------------------------------- EMIF
+0.01% to +0.25% -------------------- zebedee
+0.26% to +0.50% -------------------- eretron
+0.51% to +0.75% -------------------- Last of the  V8s
+0.76% to +1.00% -------------------- davejh
+1.01% to +1.25% -------------------- kenscho
+1.26% to +1.50% -------------------- tlhIlwI
+1.51% to +1.75% -------------------- gallery2000
+1.76% to +2.00% -------------------- tss
+2.01% to +2.25% -------------------- mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% -------------------- cakir
+2.51% to +2.76% -------------------- alh
+3.01% to +3.25% -------------------- tertius993
+3.26% to +3.50% -------------------- RealMalatesta


This should be full set of picks.

And mom's day was very slow for blocks:

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


5/ 3/2015    140 blocks----------- that is -   2   since about half were the last adjustment and half were this adjustment
5/ 4/2015    130 blocks----------  that is - 14
5/ 5/2015    154 blocks----------  that is +10
5/ 6/2015    157 blocks----------  that is +13
5/ 7/2015    148 blocks----------  that is +4
5/ 8/2015    143 blocks----------  that is -1
5/ 9/2015    140 blocks----------  that is -4
5/10/2015   122 blocks----------  that is -22


we are down about 18 blocks at the moment.

 we have made 1041 blocks   -18 means we should be at 1059

So we has a 'real number of (-1.69%)

I wonder if we pop a second 120 block day on monday .  Maybe lots of guys were too busy to mine and were doing moms day instead.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom please keep going down!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,746,955,892 (-1.88%)
Adjust time:    After 945 Blocks, About 6.7 days

I alway's seem to pick horrible picks.  This week I actually was not horrible at speculating!  Maybe thanks to philipma1957 and his thread I'm starting to learn. 

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom please keep going down!

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,746,955,892 (-1.88%)
Adjust time:    After 945 Blocks, About 6.7 days

I alway's seem to pick horrible picks.  This week I actually was not horrible at speculating!  Maybe thanks to philipma1957 and his thread I'm starting to learn.  

Well whether I am your obi wan kenobi or your  Yoda  I simply don't know, but I do know right now you are close to the leaders.

I have been finding out one thing with this thread  long term stable Diff   knocks out a lot of speculation.

I have to thank suchmoon for adding the promo part as it keeps things interesting.

These threads would have ended without the promo.

week after week of flatness would have been boring to guess on:
below the last 16 adjustments = +2.1%


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s






This would mean this rate in 16 more jumps   66664 M  now I am not so sure we stay at this rate but if we do an s-3 with 9 cent power would still be a money earner.

I have to think builders of asics understand expanding hash via farms or stand alone home miners is not the way to do it. The risks are very high.

Miner's make heat  the world needs heat in many places so

using a miner for winter heating.  using a miner as a swimming pool heater.  = future ideas.

Bick says as an addon device  yeah it could work.  I agree.

 My piece of advice is plan for this  old school way of mining to change.  A farm with 5 or 10 ph in a cold place wasting the heat is not going to work.
Saving the heat for  useful purposes is a new BTC goal.  Well at least I think so.

[alh]

My recollection is that when we got down to 1000 blocks remaining, the contest would close to further picks for this round. Do I have that right Phillip? If so, you might want to adjust the title to reflect that further picks are closed.

I can't recall a time when difficulty has just been "bumping along" at a more or less constant value, but I didn't join the mining party until the summer of 2013. Any others recall such a "calm" period?

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom is starting to jump a little less:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,259,632,360 (-0.81%)
Adjust time:    After 861 Blocks, About 6.0 days

Looking like good chance of difficulty  as a small negative. Price seems to hoover around 240 which is not bad.  Right now were at 242 per BTC.

[philipma1957]

My recollection is that when we got down to 1000 blocks remaining, the contest would close to further picks for this round. Do I have that right Phillip? If so, you might want to adjust the title to reflect that further picks are closed.

I can't recall a time when difficulty has just been "bumping along" at a more or less constant value, but I didn't join the mining party until the summer of 2013. Any others recall such a "calm" period?

this will be fixed thanks. and now fixed.

No we are very stable super growth is over.

Basically 2 reasons  asics no longer cut efficiency much. 

The 2 watt level s-1 Became the .8 watt level s-3 Became the .52 watt level s-5.

  An s-3 in a 8 cent power spot still earns money.

Hash growth is worthless power cutting is not worthless >   This appears to be the new mantra.

I believe the gear exists but that the major players do not want a hash rate war.   If you think a hash rate war hurts a guy like me so what 3-5k in gear. In my case I now own 3 s-3's that's it.

 spot rent from nicehash to mine.  So if the big players jack hash up and up and up.  I do not lose much.  I can rent gear or buy coins.

They get cut.    They are not stupid they do not want that to happen.  Just a guess  as to why ,but it is a spec thread

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


5/ 3/2015    140 blocks----------- that is -   2   since about half were the last adjustment and half were this adjustment
5/ 4/2015    130 blocks----------  that is - 14
5/ 5/2015    154 blocks----------  that is +10
5/ 6/2015    157 blocks----------  that is +13
5/ 7/2015    148 blocks----------  that is +4
5/ 8/2015    143 blocks----------  that is -1
5/ 9/2015    140 blocks----------  that is -4
5/10/2015   122 blocks----------  that is -22
5/11/2015   147 blocks----------  that is +3

we are down about 15 blocks at the moment.

 we have made 1213 blocks   -15 means we should be at 1228

So we has a 'real number of (-1.22%)

I wonder if we pop a second 122 block day on monday .    Answer was no we did a 147 block day.


Maybe lots of guys were too busy to mine and were doing moms day instead.

I suspect some variance and I suspect some miners were busy for mom's day.


the current -1.22%  puts me in the lead with about 6 days left.

[notlist3d]

Bit wisdom has changed in since morning:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,936,563,004 (+0.62%)
Adjust time:    After 796 Blocks, About 5.4 days

We will see still a low positive even then.  I hope to see a small neg still.  Price is hanging on by a thread at 240.  Seems we have trouble keeping price above 240 lately.

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+0.03%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,657,860,053 (+0.03%)
Adjust time:   After 753 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):   336,413,480 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:   8:10 (3.8 minutes ago)


price = 241 usd  from:


https://www.coinbase.com/charts

[notlist3d]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+0.03%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,657,860,053 (+0.03%)
Adjust time:   After 753 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):   336,413,480 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:   8:10 (3.8 minutes ago)


price = 241 usd  from:


https://www.coinbase.com/charts

Price almost 243.  I'm starting to think we will be able to stay around 240 for a bit.  Which is a jump from the 220 we were stuck at for a while. 

That is a decent jump in a month or so. If we an continue this trend it will be very very  nice.