[WTS] 6/23 Order for 3 Jalapeno - Lowered price!

[Shadow383]

What are you looking for, ballpark? I have no idea what the going rate is for these...

They're expected to make ~10(+/- 3)BTC a week (before the difficulty shoots up), so I've been quoting people about ~40-50BTC.

Per Jalapeno? So triple retail? For the price you want for 2 of these (7GH/s) I could just go buy a bASIC (27GH/s)...

So, is yours a trade-in order or a straight cash order? I'd think the latter may be worth more, depending on the (as yet unknown) details of BFL's trade in scheme.

Mine was originally a 6/3 order for a Single, but after the ASICs came out, I had my order changed to the 4 Jalapenos. I believe it does count under the 1/3 for trade-ins, however, if you really want to know.

I'm all for competition, but by the time you get your bASIC a month or two after I get these, the difficulty will already be magnitudes higher than what it is now. And when these are making 1BTC/day each at today's difficulty, time is of the essence.

You really think you're getting these next month?

[crazyates]

What are you looking for, ballpark? I have no idea what the going rate is for these...

They're expected to make ~10(+/- 3)BTC a week (before the difficulty shoots up), so I've been quoting people about ~40-50BTC.

Per Jalapeno? So triple retail? For the price you want for 2 of these (7GH/s) I could just go buy a bASIC (27GH/s)...

So, is yours a trade-in order or a straight cash order? I'd think the latter may be worth more, depending on the (as yet unknown) details of BFL's trade in scheme.

Mine was originally a 6/3 order for a Single, but after the ASICs came out, I had my order changed to the 4 Jalapenos. I believe it does count under the 1/3 for trade-ins, however, if you really want to know.

I'm all for competition, but by the time you get your bASIC a month or two after I get these, the difficulty will already be magnitudes higher than what it is now. And when these are making 1BTC/day each at today's difficulty, time is of the essence.

You really think you're getting these next month?

I don't know when I"m getting them. I do know I'm in the first batch, and the latest report from BFL_Josh is late October / early November. IIRC, Tom said the bASIC will ship ~ Novemeber/December. According to my math, that's a 1-2 month difference.

[crazyates]

Bump

[crazyates]

Bump

[MrTeal]

Per Jalapeno at 100% PPS you'd be earning BTC8.6/week at the current difficulty/reward, I don't see how you'd get anything close to BTC10/week by the time these ship. If BFL does do the big batch shipment to start, by the time you get the unit and turn around and reship it, you'd probably be lucky to earn BTC10 in the first week with all three mining. That's assuming that BFL stays on target and ships early November; the new expected date for block reward halving is December 1st. If BFL's schedule slips a few weeks and these don't arrive in people's hands before Thanksgiving, the block reward could halve before your buyer even receives them and you could easily be looking at less than BTC1/day for all three by the time you start mining.

That said, I'll offer you a 50% markup on the $150 price of them plus an extra BTC5 for shipping and offer BTC60 for all three.

[crazyates]

Per Jalapeno at 100% PPS you'd be earning BTC8.6/week at the current difficulty/reward, I don't see how you'd get anything close to BTC10/week by the time these ship. If BFL does do the big batch shipment to start, by the time you get the unit and turn around and reship it, you'd probably be lucky to earn BTC10 in the first week with all three mining. That's assuming that BFL stays on target and ships early November; the new expected date for block reward halving is December 1st. If BFL's schedule slips a few weeks and these don't arrive in people's hands before Thanksgiving, the block reward could halve before your buyer even receives them and you could easily be looking at less than BTC1/day for all three by the time you start mining.

That said, I'll offer you a 50% markup on the $150 price of them plus an extra BTC5 for shipping and offer BTC60 for all three.

I think 60BTC is too low, but PM sent to negotiate.

[crazyates]

Per Jalapeno at 100% PPS you'd be earning BTC8.6/week at the current difficulty/reward, I don't see how you'd get anything close to BTC10/week by the time these ship. If BFL does do the big batch shipment to start, by the time you get the unit and turn around and reship it, you'd probably be lucky to earn BTC10 in the first week with all three mining. That's assuming that BFL stays on target and ships early November; the new expected date for block reward halving is December 1st. If BFL's schedule slips a few weeks and these don't arrive in people's hands before Thanksgiving, the block reward could halve before your buyer even receives them and you could easily be looking at less than BTC1/day for all three by the time you start mining.

That said, I'll offer you a 50% markup on the $150 price of them plus an extra BTC5 for shipping and offer BTC60 for all three.

I think 60BTC is too low, but PM sent to negotiate.

Me and MrTeal worked out that these 3 jalapenos are expected to make approximately anywhere from 40-80BTC between receipt of the units and the end of the year, depending on BFL shipping times, how much they ship (and the difficulty adjustment), the timing of the shipment in correlation to the block recalculations, whether other ASIC competitors ship their products, etc. That said, I'll sell them for 60BTC + the current cost of the hardware, 36BTC, for a total of 96BTC.

[crazyates]

OP and title have been updated. Price has been lowered.

[laSeek]

Just so I'm clear - you want somebody to reimburse you for the profit you would have made if you'd run them yourself, absorb the operating costs of running them and extend the time taken to break even by operating them in the new year at a decreased reward (25 btc rather than 50) and increased difficulty?

[crazyates]

Just so I'm clear - you want somebody to reimburse you for the profit you would have made if you'd run them yourself, absorb the operating costs of running them and extend the time taken to break even by operating them in the new year at a decreased reward (25 btc rather than 50) and increased difficulty?

Huh?

First, I'm more than happy to mine with these on my own. Yes they're for sale, but it's not like I can lose if they don't sell: I'll just mine with them, and make plenty of BTC.

Second, the "operating costs" are next to nothing. These will use almost nothing for electricity, and will be insanely profitable at the beginning.

Third, these are expected to ship WELL BEFORE the reward half, so it's estimated that you will be able to mine for a good month or two at 50BTC/block. This first month is the most profitable, which makes it the most important (hence why I'm offering overnight shipping, so you get them faster).

Lastly, the profits are unknown. As I said, the estimated profits are anywhere from 40-80BTC, so I priced these at 60 (plus the cost of the hardware), which is smack dab in the middle. If you think you can earn more than 60BTC before the end of the year, then this sale is MORE profitable than ordering from BFL directly (and getting an order number in the 8 or 9000s). If you don't think you can make at least 60BTC, then you're better off ordering from BFL directly. It's a gamble.

[abracadabra]

<@gribble> Estimated time of bitcoin block reward halving: Fri Nov 30 13:24:00 2012

BFL is currently estimating delivery of product in November, when they were initially estimating October.
It would not be out of the question to assume that there will be another delay forthcoming.

[thebaron]

<@gribble> Estimated time of bitcoin block reward halving: Fri Nov 30 13:24:00 2012

BFL is currently estimating delivery of product in November, when they were initially estimating October.
It would not be out of the question to assume that there will be another delay forthcoming.

Due to release delays, I wouldn't be surprised if the only people who are going to ever see a positive ROI on their BFL ASIC orders are those who are wisely trying to sell them before they ship to folks who haven't sat down and done the math.

Their pre-order pool is going to be so big that it will be self-destructive to the very miners who thought they were going to have an edge.

[crazyates]

<@gribble> Estimated time of bitcoin block reward halving: Fri Nov 30 13:24:00 2012

BFL is currently estimating delivery of product in November, when they were initially estimating October.
It would not be out of the question to assume that there will be another delay forthcoming.

I included a November 1st ship date in my estimations. Seeing how that's 40 days away, and we havn't heard of any major delays, I don't see how that's unreasonable.

[crazyates]

Due to release delays, I wouldn't be surprised if the only people who are going to ever see a positive ROI on their BFL ASIC orders are those who are wisely trying to sell them before they ship to folks who haven't sat down and done the math.

Their pre-order pool is going to be so big that it will be self-destructive to the very miners who thought they were going to have an edge.

1) Considering I bought these back in June when the price was lower, I spent almost the same # of BTC as what I'm selling them for. And yet my estimated ROI is anywhere from 2-6 months, depending on how those first 2 months go.

2) Have you actually sat down and done the math of how many BTC you can get with 10GH/s? Taking into account shipping times, difficulty recalculation timing, and estimated difficulty? As I said, its anywhere from 40-80BTC.

3) I don't think that's true. Compare the current Single to the SC Single: It's ~48x as fast, at 2.16x the price. That's a 22x performance boost for every Bitcoin (or dollar) spent. But then we have to take into account the reward half. So, as long as the difficulty doesn't go over ~11x what it is now (which would be a ~250THs network), a SC Single will mine the same BTC/day as a current Single in today's market. This is what BFL said would happen, abeit eventually. Who knows how long it will take to get to that point (6 months? 1 year?), so in the mean time, they are insanely more profitable.

3.b) If you think the market will reach numbers larger than 250TH/s in the next 6-12 months, then you have to hope that the USD/BTC price will rise to keep mining on the same level of profitability.

[thebaron]

Your ROI isn't taking into account lots of other people having the same equipment or your order not shipping in the first batch.

Assuming they meet their target GH/s, you still won't be profitable long enough before there are too many units out there raising the difficulty up to astronomical levels.

There's more BFL ASIC hardware on pre-order then FPGA stuff that has already sold. You're also not taking into account other ASIC manufacturers (public and private) bringing their products to market around the same time. The current worst case scenario from the amount of $ in pre-order sales for SC miners (assuming they've only sold Jalapenos) is "only" 28TH/s of ASIC's being in the hands of miners shortly. That's doubling plus a 1/3 the current network hashing rate. SC miners alone (let's magically pretend no other hardware will be added to the network between now and then) are going to bring the difficulty rate up to 7,500,000. Assuming 20 watts and 3.5gh/s and 15 cent electricity, $20 bitcoin price, and half reward rate and the standard profitibility decline...you are correct, you'd break even within 2 months easily (assuming not many ASICS are being brought online in that time period).

However, I figure on the difficulty being somewhere around 10 million by the time the first batch of orders has started finally being shipped out (1 month after, and lets say you get yours after a month). So if we use 3.0 actual GH/s being delivered, $30 Bitcoin price,  half reward rate, and assuming a possible 5,000% profit decline in the first year (being retarded and saying something like 2000 TH/s being brought online) if everyone releases their goodies...OK, still within 2 months.

I was wrong.

[jasinlee]

Have you chosen to accept escrow yet?

[Jack1Rip1BurnIt]

Pretty much this is a way to get some ASICs from BFL as fast as possible. I'm sure there is someone out there that who missed out and will be willing to pay more to experience this. Fortunately I ordered within an hour of release and ended up in the 1750's...so I don't have to worry about it.

[crazyates]

Have you chosen to accept escrow yet?

I sent you a PM, but i'm posting this for public knowledge: I'm willing to work out a deal where escrow is used, but I'd rather not. I'd rather not tie up ~100 BTC in escrow for a minimum of a month, but I also know how important escrow is when making deals on these forums. So the end result is that you'll have to PM me with what kind of deal we can make. 

[crazyates]

So me and jasinlee had a deal for the remaining 3, but he backed out, so these are up for grabs again! PM me with any offers.

[crazyates]

Also, since I last posted in this thread, the Jalapeno's specs have been increased by ~30%: from 3.5GH/s to 4.5GH/s. WooHoo!