How deep do you expect the price to fall?

[the_thing]

So.. after a short rebound, the price continues to fall.
At which point (be it time or price) do you expect it to stop and go up again?

Later we will see how good speculators you are.

[1715472808]

1715472808

[1715472808]

1715472808

[JMAHH]

Resistance at 9-9.5... I see it rebounding between 9.5 and 10, lower than 10 will break a barrier and many will buy - is my guess. 

[Stephen Gornick]

So.. after a short rebound, the price continues to fall.

There is a national holiday on Monday in the U.S.

In a downtrend, weekends tend to dip (well, historically, there is almost always a dip on weekends during a downswing):

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=63312.msg1147707#msg1147707

[anthony.selby]

Well ... were at 10 dollars now ...

[owdbetts]

I think it's clear that someone is trying to crash the market, by selling heavily at the beginning of the weekend, when they know liquidity will be limited by the inability to make fiat transfers into the exchanges.  Exactly the same thing happened two weeks ago, and I'm guessing it's not unrelated.

How low will it go?  I'm guessing this weekends attempt to crash the market will be far less successful than the previous, which triggered an overdue correction in an overbought market.  This time round I imagine there are quite a few players who anticipated the possibility and more have exchange funds ready and waiting to buy back in when they sense a bottom.  I expect a bounce.

My personal belief is that it will bounce back to $10-$11 and then trade sideways for a while.  But I'm not a trader (of anything) not least because I know full well that I'm no good at trading.  I mainly only do buy-and-hold.  So I'm probably not the best person to listen to on this.

[matthewh3]

I think it's clear that someone is trying to crash the market, by selling heavily at the beginning of the weekend, when they know liquidity will be limited by the inability to make fiat transfers into the exchanges.  Exactly the same thing happened two weeks ago, and I'm guessing it's not unrelated.

How low will it go?  I'm guessing this weekends attempt to crash the market will be far less successful than the previous, which triggered an overdue correction in an overbought market.  This time round I imagine there are quite a few players who anticipated the possibility and more have exchange funds ready and waiting to buy back in when they sense a bottom.  I expect a bounce.

My personal belief is that it will bounce back to $10-$11 and then trade sideways for a while.  But I'm not a trader (of anything) not least because I know full well that I'm no good at trading.  I mainly only do buy-and-hold.  So I'm probably not the best person to listen to on this.

I think Pirate might start some payouts very soon and the market may lower further??

[owdbetts]

I'm somewhat skeptical of this assumption that people will cash out their payouts (if they materialise - which I somewhat doubt).  All these people who were so keen to invest in BTCST will suddenly give up on BTC altogether and cash out to fiat?  That's a big assumption

[unclemantis]

I got my money on 8

[matthewh3]

I'm somewhat skeptical of this assumption that people will cash out their payouts (if they materialise - which I somewhat doubt).  All these people who were so keen to invest in BTCST will suddenly give up on BTC altogether and cash out to fiat?  That's a big assumption

Because some people would have only bought bitcoins because of Pirates offer??

[DeathAndTaxes]

I'm somewhat skeptical of this assumption that people will cash out their payouts (if they materialise - which I somewhat doubt).  All these people who were so keen to invest in BTCST will suddenly give up on BTC altogether and cash out to fiat?  That's a big assumption

Because some people would have only bought bitcoins because of Pirates offer??

No you know anyone like that.  Pirate didn't con a bunch of bitcoin outsiders.  Hell they (looking objectively from a distance) were more likely to see it as an super obvious ponzi.  It was only the bitcoin enthusiast who thought somehow bitcoin could bend the laws of compounding interest.

My guess is the number of people who were complete outsiders to Bitcoin and bought solely to put coins into an obvious ponzi and will sell as soon as possible are a distinct minority.

Maybe it makes people feel better to think that but this was a "hometown" scam.  The people scammed were the people right here in this forum long before Pirate started offering dumbass "wagers".

[king_pin]

I personally doubt that what is going on is somehow connected to pirates ponzi. More likely it is someone or some people trying to bring the price down and buy cheap on Monday morning, like last time, only last time was caused by pirate40,...  only time will tell.
I think that the price will go back above 10$ the only thing that scares me a bit is that Monday is a Holiday.

[matthewh3]

I'm somewhat skeptical of this assumption that people will cash out their payouts (if they materialise - which I somewhat doubt).  All these people who were so keen to invest in BTCST will suddenly give up on BTC altogether and cash out to fiat?  That's a big assumption

Because some people would have only bought bitcoins because of Pirates offer??

No you know anyone like that.  Pirate didn't con a bunch of bitcoin outsiders.  Hell they (looking objectively from a distance) were more likely to see it as an super obvious ponzi.  It was only the bitcoin enthusiast who thought somehow bitcoin could bend the laws of compounding interest.

My guess is the number of people who were complete outsiders to Bitcoin and bought solely to put coins into an obvious ponzi and will sell as soon as possible are a distinct minority.

Maybe it makes people feel better to think that but this was a "hometown" scam.  The people scammed were the people right here in this forum long before Pirate started offering dumbass "wagers".

Yes but with those rates there is a high chance of seasoned forum members encouraging there peers to cash in.  I'm not saying all BST and PPT will cash out (I won't be doing so with my merge [possible] return) but some will.  Which could help further push down the weekends low and possibly helping a BIG (naming no name's) trader??  

[owdbetts]

Yeah, I think DeathAndTaxes has it right.

Certainly the collapse of BTCST has probably reduced the influx of fiat, but I think by far the largest chunk of that would be from existing bitcoiners; I'm not expecting large outflows, even if Pirate does make significant payouts (which I don't expect).

I see BTC being stable at $10-$11, short term. I don't think we're going to see a continuation of the bubble-licious behaviour we had immediately prior to the correction two weeks ago; at least not for a little while.

[owdbetts]

I personally doubt that what is going on is somehow connected to pirates ponzi. More likely it is someone or some people trying to bring the price down and buy cheap on Monday morning, like last time, only last time was caused by pirate40,...

I have no idea or particular opinion as to who is behind either attempt.  I had assumed the same entity was probably behind both attempts, but yes, today's action could certainly be a copycat.

only time will tell.

I doubt we'll ever know who was selling.

[Aseras]

It always dips at the end of a month. People cash out to pay bills. The 10-12th is usually the highest.

[notme]

8.5

[adamstgBit]

8.5

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

[notme]

8.5

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

I've got a cage full of birds.  I don't mind letting some out occasionally to see if they can bring back a mate.

[kentrolla]

i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

[lebing]

i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

30k bitcoins says it will not get lower than 9.7

[fcmatt]

 6.85 give it some time tho.

[adamstgBit]

i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

30k bitcoins says it will not get lower than 9.7

its more like 30K praying to god, it will go lower than 9.7 over the weekend

[lebing]

i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

30k bitcoins says it will not get lower than 9.7

its more like 30K praying to god, it will go lower than 9.7 over the weekend

Closer to 40k now, another 3k wall at 9.8.

Prayer might be an effective wall, but asks are the more effective.

[trogdorjw73]

i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

30k bitcoins says it will not get lower than 9.7

its more like 30K praying to god, it will go lower than 9.7 over the weekend

Amen. Except, it appears their prayers lacked faith, and the ask wall is now 30K at $9.00. I'm thinking we might just see $7.50 this weekend.

[adamstgBit]

i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

30k bitcoins says it will not get lower than 9.7

its more like 30K praying to god, it will go lower than 9.7 over the weekend

Amen. Except, it appears their prayers lacked faith, and the ask wall is now 30K at $9.00. I'm thinking we might just see $7.50 this weekend.

i predict any sell off below 9 will be quickly bought back up
and when the rally on Tuesday starts, watch out! its going to be Spectacular.

if your thinking it will Stabilize somewhere like it did at 5... your dreaming.

[evolve]

Welp, I bought back in at 10.8 a couple days ago...so I (obviously) didnt expect it to fall in the first place, which is why I hate trying to play flat markets.


That said, who knows? Ill say 8 for the next bottom.  But I'm gonna hold on to my btc position for now and hope you guys don't drive this into the ground...id rather be in usd right now, honestly, but I don't trade at a loss.

[RicePicker]

Welp, I bought back in at 10.8 a couple days ago...so I (obviously) didnt expect it to fall in the first place, which is why I hate trying to play flat markets.


That said, who knows? Ill say 8 for the next bottom.  But I'm gonna hold on to my btc position for now and hope you guys don't drive this into the ground...id rather be in usd right now, honestly, but I don't trade at a loss.

In the same position as you. After a while I realize just to sit and wait it out. It will have to come back up sooner or later.

[Raize]

It always dips at the end of a month. People cash out to pay bills. The 10-12th is usually the highest.

Astute observation. Every time I think the forum doesn't product any winners someone comes around and shows me I'm wrong. Kudos on paying attention and having the fortitude to actually play the hand.

[the_thing]

Thank you all for your thoughts.
This thread has been very inspirational to me.

[king_pin]

The walls are gone now so its anyone guess how much it will drop.   

[server]

Sunday = dumpday

black market coins are selling at 50% so maybe <$5

[Endgame]

Looks like falling knives to me, and I'm not catching them. I predict 8.5

[befuddled]

when the rally on Tuesday starts, watch out! its going to be Spectacular.

Why will a rally start tues, and why will it be spectacular?

[Technomage]

Doesn't look to me like it's falling. The last time we see single digits is closing in. Might be here already, who knows.

[molecular]

Doesn't look to me like it's falling. The last time we see single digits is closing in. Might be here already, who knows.

I think I heard this before, like in the last week of August.

[proudhon]

Doesn't look to me like it's falling. The last time we see single digits is closing in. Might be here already, who knows.

I think I heard this before, like in the last week of August.

Also, May and June...2011.

[Technomage]

I think I heard this before, like in the last week of August.

I believe it is just a matter of time. Bitcoin is close to being ready for stable double digits. Very close.

[kentrolla]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=619

[JMAHH]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

[TraderTimm]

Longer term trendline from around June says support at 9.25 - I think we plateau a bit here before the next move. I just watch the trendlines and whether we get a close below it on a daily basis, which would invalidate any support.

[lebing]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

[adamstgBit]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

[lebing]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

[Sitarow]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

I subscribe to the pay day mentality and that people would like to buy things with bitcoin.... BFL?

[JMAHH]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

Monday is a holiday in the US. Banks are closed. People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip) will have to wait for Tuesday to wire in large amounts of money. We anticipate a jump in the rate then.

[Junko]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

Monday is a holiday in the US. Banks are closed. People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip) will have to wait for Tuesday to wire in large amounts of money. We anticipate a jump in the rate then.

You would think though that these "People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip)" would already have money on an exchange ready to buy on a dip -if that's what they were planning on doing anyway - and would not have to wait until Tuesday.

[kentrolla]

i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

so far so good on that prediction. i expect it to hold true

[JMAHH]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

Monday is a holiday in the US. Banks are closed. People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip) will have to wait for Tuesday to wire in large amounts of money. We anticipate a jump in the rate then.

You would think though that these "People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip)" would already have money on an exchange ready to buy on a dip -if that's what they were planning on doing anyway - and would not have to wait until Tuesday.

It's a hypothesis, thus no 100% proof. Still I can imagine that given the long-term optimism on Bitcoin's value some might consider the dip in question one of the last really good opportunities to get in - 'all' in (worth an extra transfer).

Interestingly we're going green right now (48h) so either the theory is:
- simply false
- correct but self-destructing since people are buying in anticipation, effectively erasing any 'all-in' incentives the Tuesday investors might have had to transfer big money.

[the_thing]

It's a hypothesis, thus no 100% proof. Still I can imagine that given the long-term optimism on Bitcoin's value some might consider the dip in question one of the last really good opportunities to get in - 'all' in (worth an extra transfer).

Interestingly we're going green right now (48h) so either the theory is:
- simply false
- correct but self-destructing since people are buying in anticipation, effectively erasing any 'all-in' incentives the Tuesday investors might have had to transfer big money.

Well, the price fell during the weekend (it's not 48h). Its rising might be caused by European and Asian investors since there's no Monday holiday. I expect it to rise some more, even though I have no idea what the week's maximum will be. What is your guess?

Also, I'm anticipating a larger crash because of Pirate's default. When is he originally supposed to pay out?

[JMAHH]

It's a hypothesis, thus no 100% proof. Still I can imagine that given the long-term optimism on Bitcoin's value some might consider the dip in question one of the last really good opportunities to get in - 'all' in (worth an extra transfer).

Interestingly we're going green right now (48h) so either the theory is:
- simply false
- correct but self-destructing since people are buying in anticipation, effectively erasing any 'all-in' incentives the Tuesday investors might have had to transfer big money.

Well, the price fell during the weekend (it's not 48h). Its rising might be caused by European and Asian investors since there's no Monday holiday. I expect it to rise some more, even though I have no idea what the week's maximum will be. What is your guess?

Also, I'm anticipating a larger crash because of Pirate's default. When is he originally supposed to pay out?

Europe and Asia: good point. I neglected a third possibility, which is that the rise in question has nothing to do with the theory at all.

Pirate: is there a possibility he is already priced in? The scam has become pretty obvious to most by now.

[the_thing]

Pirate: is there a possibility he is already priced in? The scam has become pretty obvious to most by now.

I'm convinced he is priced in, but it is questionable to what extent. People still have some hope to get their investments back and I think he still holds huge number of bitcoins and waits to dump them. One thing is for sure  - Pirate will either pay out, or not pay out. My theory is, that if he pays out, many investors will sell their bitcoins, driving the price down. If he doesn't pay out, FUD will conquer the market + pirate sells bitcoins driving the price down. So according to my theory, the price is going to fall either way. The question is when.

Any thoughts on my hypothesis?

[JMAHH]

Pirate: is there a possibility he is already priced in? The scam has become pretty obvious to most by now.

I'm convinced he is priced in, but it is questionable to what extent. People still have some hope to get their investments back and I think he still holds huge number of bitcoins and waits to dump them. One thing is for sure  - Pirate will either pay out, or not pay out. My theory is, that if he pays out, many investors will sell their bitcoins, driving the price down. If he doesn't pay out, FUD will conquer the market + pirate sells bitcoins driving the price down. So according to my theory, the price is going to fall either way. The question is when.

Any thoughts on my hypothesis?

I find myself agreeing with most of it. Timing is the greatest question mark.

[ElectricMucus]

I still think that pirate will not sell his bitcoins in the near future.

The price could tank regardless, but not as steep more like we had last year after 30, it could still accelerate at some point from panic sellers but no fractional digits crazyness. As of how low... idk, just this you can draw a linear trendline under the price from 0.9 to 2 and I don't think that would be broken.

[knight22]

I still think that pirate will not sell his bitcoins in the near future.

The price could tank regardless, but not as steep more like we had last year after 30, it could still accelerate at some point from panic sellers but no fractional digits crazyness. As of how low... idk, just this you can draw a linear trendline under the price from 0.9 to 2 and I don't think that would be broken.

+1
I think this is probably the absolute minimum value. This is probably the growing people who use bitcoin no matter its value.  Also if you look closer, The increase line you made has the same ratio than the bitcoin slight growth during the 5$ "stability" period. 

[the_thing]

I still think that pirate will not sell his bitcoins in the near future.

The price could tank regardless, but not as steep more like we had last year after 30, it could still accelerate at some point from panic sellers but no fractional digits crazyness. As of how low... idk, just this you can draw a linear trendline under the price from 0.9 to 2 and I don't think that would be broken.

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

[adamstgBit]

I still think that pirate will not sell his bitcoins in the near future.

The price could tank regardless, but not as steep more like we had last year after 30, it could still accelerate at some point from panic sellers but no fractional digits crazyness. As of how low... idk, just this you can draw a linear trendline under the price from 0.9 to 2 and I don't think that would be broken.

+1
I think this is probably the absolute minimum value. This is probably the growing people who use bitcoin no matter its value.  Also if you look closer, The increase line you made has the same ratio than the bitcoin slight growth during the 5$ "stability" period.  

ya but look as bitcoin goes up and down, its bouncing higher and higher away from that trend line   "min price line"

[ElectricMucus]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

[the_thing]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

I understand that. Technical analysis always looked to me like a combination of crowd psychology and genuine bullshit. I read a lot about lines, peaks and bottoms, channels and whatnot, but nobody really explained WHY. You provided the best explanation so far.

[ElectricMucus]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

I understand that. Technical analysis always looked to me like a combination of crowd psychology and genuine bullshit. I read a lot about lines, peaks and bottoms, channels and whatnot, but nobody really explained WHY. You provided the best explanation so far.

In general I agree, most of technical analysis is BS, because it is not back-tested in a scientifically rigorous fashion.

I see technical analysis as an analogue to this problem: Take an random photograph and extend it beyond the border. And depending on what is pictured it is possible to come to a somewhat useful conclusion: If the edge of the picture contains a table you can if only an edge is missing extrapolate where that edge should be in the picture, if there is an arm you can tell that there must be a person somewhere after it. But if there is a part of a rock it could be part of a bolder or a mountain.

Your critique is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, that is in a ideal market the price movement should be equivalent to Brownian motion (random walk). However most markets and especially bitcoin are no ideal markets, that is, by definition that not all fundamentals are available to everybody.

I don't really agree with the efficient market hypothesis either, I rather think that there are periods of unpredictable behavior, (the "picture" displays a texture like sand) and predictable behavior (there is a person in the picture which sits on a chair).

[JMAHH]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

Well I would think that a (very slight) curve has its place since it represents an accelerating amount of 'hard-base users'. A linear line implies growth at the same rate. In the case of Bitcoin, which is now very slowly starting to trickle into mainstream, I see the former model as more representative; snowball style.

[notme]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

Well I would think that a (very slight) curve has its place since it represents an accelerating amount of 'hard-base users'. A linear line implies growth at the same rate. In the case of Bitcoin, which is now very slowly starting to trickle into mainstream, I see the former model as more representative; snowball style.

Forum stats show linear growth.

Also, if you want to do exponential, switch to log charts and then draw your straight line.

[molecular]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

Everybody uses linear lines. That's why they work and that in turn is why everybody uses them.

[ElectricMucus]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

Everybody uses linear lines. That's why they work and that in turn is why everybody uses them.

Heh haven't noticed the pun 

You know lines on a logarithmic chart and such or curves, polynomals, etc.. They don't work

[hacknoid]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

Well I would think that a (very slight) curve has its place since it represents an accelerating amount of 'hard-base users'. A linear line implies growth at the same rate. In the case of Bitcoin, which is now very slowly starting to trickle into mainstream, I see the former model as more representative; snowball style.

There really seem to be three futures for Bitcoin, which I think help decide the growth in terms of value vs. fiat currency:

1) Faith in the system falters, media attention causes concern, governments try to ban/outlaw it, etc. etc. - something that prevents mainstream adoption and the abandonment by all but the die-hards.  In this case, the price would drop down and stay low.
2) Mainstream adoption doesn't really happen, but people tend to continue supporting it; value vs. the U.S. dollar would meander along, but not significantly change
3) It continues to grow and be adopted further, become more popular, and basically have a good future.  This is the likely option I see - in this case, the price would (should) rise.  How much?  Well, I would say the percentage rise would be about constant long-term, rather than the dollar value rise.  IOW, if the growth is about $1 per month now (10%), when the value reaches $100 it would be up to $10/month value increase (stilll 10%).  This would mean a curve when looking at dollar value, but a line when looking at day-over-day percentage increase. 

Over short periods of time, linear is probably a good approximation.  However, a $1 change in price at $10/BTC becomes a much less significant change at $100/BTC or $1000/BTC.

As a sidenote, I had noticed a while back that if you block out the part of the all-time graph between May and November 2011, the rest of the graph forms a nice trend.  And the only reason I even consider leaving out a block like that is because of all the hype and media attention at that time (good and bad), and basically the whole system was more immature at the time.  Not that Bitcoin is old, mature or stable yet, it simply is more than at that time.  Leaving out that noisy bubble period, the linear trendline I drew a few months back wound up around $8 for the end of 2012, which we still seem on track for, and I personally believe may be realistic. 

[justusranvier]

I only make estimations of expected exchange rates to even powers of 10 because I don't actively trade.

Based on the estimations of the amount of bitcoin-denomimated trade and the assumption that the velocity of bitcoin used for commerce is similar to the velocity in the larger economy I expect the exchange rate to be between $1 and $10 while the amount of annual bitcoin commerce is between $10 million and $100 million.

Likewise if the exchange rate ever reached the $100 and $1000 values that some people are hoping for I would consider it to be a bubble unless the bitcoin economy was supported by $1 billion and $10 billion respectively in annual commerce.

[notme]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

Everybody uses linear lines. That's why they work and that in turn is why everybody uses them.

Heh haven't noticed the pun 

You know lines on a logarithmic chart and such or curves, polynomals, etc.. They don't work

But the future will always be just like today, but bigger.  Also the previous statement will always be true.

[waspoza]

I only make estimations of expected exchange rates to even powers of 10 because I don't actively trade.

Based on the estimations of the amount of bitcoin-denomimated trade and the assumption that the velocity of bitcoin used for commerce is similar to the velocity in the larger economy I expect the exchange rate to be between $1 and $10 while the amount of annual bitcoin commerce is between $10 million and $100 million.

Likewise if the exchange rate ever reached the $100 and $1000 values that some people are hoping for I would consider it to be a bubble unless the bitcoin economy was supported by $1 billion and $10 billion respectively in annual commerce.

So how you explain the fact that gold commerce is close to zero (meaning cant buy in shops for gold) and exchange rate is pretty high?

[justusranvier]

I only make estimations of expected exchange rates to even powers of 10 because I don't actively trade.

Based on the estimations of the amount of bitcoin-denomimated trade and the assumption that the velocity of bitcoin used for commerce is similar to the velocity in the larger economy I expect the exchange rate to be between $1 and $10 while the amount of annual bitcoin commerce is between $10 million and $100 million.

Likewise if the exchange rate ever reached the $100 and $1000 values that some people are hoping for I would consider it to be a bubble unless the bitcoin economy was supported by $1 billion and $10 billion respectively in annual commerce.

So how you explain the fact that gold commerce is close to zero and gold exchange rate is pretty high?

Speculative premium, which is another way of saying it's overvalued.

There's still too much speculative premium in the bitcoin exchange rate right now for me to store money I can't afford to lose as bitcoins, or to recommend it as anything other than a means of exchange only. That will change in the future when the amount of Bitcoin-demoninated trade increases.

[molecular]

I only make estimations of expected exchange rates to even powers of 10 because I don't actively trade.

Based on the estimations of the amount of bitcoin-denomimated trade and the assumption that the velocity of bitcoin used for commerce is similar to the velocity in the larger economy I expect the exchange rate to be between $1 and $10 while the amount of annual bitcoin commerce is between $10 million and $100 million.

Likewise if the exchange rate ever reached the $100 and $1000 values that some people are hoping for I would consider it to be a bubble unless the bitcoin economy was supported by $1 billion and $10 billion respectively in annual commerce.

gold is in a bubble!

[the_thing]

What the fuck... Bitfloor got hacked, there are still problems with Pirate, but the price is rising. The market is completely irrational.

[da2ce7]

What the fuck... Bitfloor got hacked, there are still problems with Pirate, but the price is rising. The market is completely irrational.

Um you mean that both the Bitfloor and Pirate debacles are already priced into the market?  That sounds extremely rational to me.

[ElectricMucus]

For now the romney event complety overshadows both pirate and bitfloor, we will know in 2-3 days if there is a followup how it is regarded, etc...

Until that has played out the bear market is suspended imo.

[knight22]

What the fuck... Bitfloor got hacked, there are still problems with Pirate, but the price is rising. The market is completely irrational.

That's only proving the market is bigger than bitfoor and Pirate

[the_thing]

For now the romney event complety overshadows both pirate and bitfloor, we will know in 2-3 days if there is a followup how it is regarded, etc...

Until that has played out the bear market is suspended imo.

what romney event do you have in mind?
EDIT : holy fuck, that thing is ridiculous. i doubt someone will pay. it's too much money for something that probably doesn't exist in the first place. but still, it's a good way to bring attention to bitcoin.

[JMAHH]

What the fuck... Bitfloor got hacked, there are still problems with Pirate, but the price is rising. The market is completely irrational.

Um you mean that both the Bitfloor and Pirate debacles are already priced into the market?  That sounds extremely rational to me.

Bitfloor priced in? Hack only happened yesterday. Unlikely.

[proudhon]

What the fuck... Bitfloor got hacked, there are still problems with Pirate, but the price is rising. The market is completely irrational.

Um you mean that both the Bitfloor and Pirate debacles are already priced into the market?  That sounds extremely rational to me.

Bitfloor priced in? Hack only happened yesterday. Unlikely.

Well, yes.  See, since "bitcoin" is essentially synonymous with "online currency the service providers of which will perpetually be subject to thefts from hacking and poor security practices" the market just already knows that some significant percentage of bitcoins will be stolen during any given month, and so, us market participants, always try to price that knowledge in.

[JMAHH]

What the fuck... Bitfloor got hacked, there are still problems with Pirate, but the price is rising. The market is completely irrational.

Um you mean that both the Bitfloor and Pirate debacles are already priced into the market?  That sounds extremely rational to me.

Bitfloor priced in? Hack only happened yesterday. Unlikely.

Well, yes.  See, since "bitcoin" is essentially synonymous with "online currency the service providers of which will perpetually be subject to thefts from hacking and poor security practices" the market just already knows that some significant percentage of bitcoins will be stolen during any given month, and so, us market participants, always try to price that knowledge in.

Touché ^^

[Adrian-x]

I only make estimations of expected exchange rates to even powers of 10 because I don't actively trade.

Based on the estimations of the amount of bitcoin-denomimated trade and the assumption that the velocity of bitcoin used for commerce is similar to the velocity in the larger economy I expect the exchange rate to be between $1 and $10 while the amount of annual bitcoin commerce is between $10 million and $100 million.

Likewise if the exchange rate ever reached the $100 and $1000 values that some people are hoping for I would consider it to be a bubble unless the bitcoin economy was supported by $1 billion and $10 billion respectively in annual commerce.

+ 1 for this

If I think about this a bit and unfortunately that is all there is regarding the Bitcoin economy, I think it is overpriced, I would expect to see an economy develop around 1:1 with the USD and when that was stable I would imagine the demand would grow organically.
But even I can't help myself from buying Bitcoin's and pushing up the price.  

I see market manipulation all over - I see somewhat well managed buy and a sell wall in the CAD, USD EU and GBP markets.

I expect even Pirate may be manipulating the market and intending paying back Bitcoin after a bubble, but my money is on a big buying frenzy after the first BTC25 block and a price hike similar to 2011 with somewhat limited demand, and then the dump of the centenary, BTC300,000-1,000,000 dumped on the market early in the new year or over Christmas 2012.

I have by Bids in at $5, but wouldn't be surprises to see it go below $2. this is pure "Speculation"

[justusranvier]

If I think about this a bit and unfortunately that is all there is regarding the Bitcoin economy, I think it is overpriced, I would expect to see an economy develop around 1:1 with the USD and when that was stable I would imagine the demand would grow organically.

Right now the exchange rate is 10% driven by commerce and 90% driven by daytraders.

This actually represents a signifigant improvement and it's improving all the time. The ratio needs to invert, though, before bitcoin can really be considered mature enough to be a store of value.

[Technomage]

The BitFloor hack has and will be completely written off as business as usual. The previous Bitcoinica hack did nothing either. This type of disaster does not affect the markets anymore. The Pirate thing is extremely overblown but it is a bigger deal than your average Bitcoin hack. Perhaps the reaction to the Pirate stuff won't be so overblown after all, which is very good.

The Romney thing is very big. It's coverage for Bitcoin in many news sites that have basically never had news about Bitcoin. Of course the story itself is probably a hoax etc but it does give Bitcoin a lot of coverage. For something like Bitcoin any press is still overall good since the main issue for Bitcoin is that it's still not well known.

If there are further developments with that story it could potentially get even bigger press for Bitcoin than Silk Road got last year. We'll see though, currently it's getting similar if slightly more than the BitInstant Debit card.

[Technomage]

Overall I see bitcoins as massively underpriced at single digits since it puts the market cap at under 100 million dollars. Of course a large portion of the valuation is based on the future expectations for Bitcoin but that is fine. That is how it is for something like this. The quite-possible-value for bitcoins in 5 years is just so much beyond the 100 million market cap that I seriously laugh out loud when I see bitcoins at $10 viewed as "overpriced". That is funny, really.

Right now the market cap is pretty much 100 million dollars so the value is in a comfortable spot in my mind. Short term price behaviour is a different animal though, I don't specialize in that stuff and I've been wrong about those things many times. Price may go up and it may also go down. I'm much more interested in the long term and I've been spot on about that so far.

[Adrian-x]

Right now the exchange rate is 10% driven by commerce and 90% driven by daytraders.

I presume that commerce is largely driven by Silk Road and the likes, and given the other risks in that line of business, they can afford the volatility in the exchange as just a small cost of doing business, they are also largely unaffected by price as customers buy in and they sell our all in a short space of time. 

Thinking about Bitcoin in terms of an "Innovation Adoption Curve" the economy is largely based on the Silk Road innovators and needs to glow more than 10x before the economy can be considered to have momentum.   I think the boom bust market is a good way to distribute BTC so i hope to buy when it hits a new low.

[adamstgBit]

If I think about this a bit and unfortunately that is all there is regarding the Bitcoin economy, I think it is overpriced, I would expect to see an economy develop around 1:1 with the USD and when that was stable I would imagine the demand would grow organically.

Right now the exchange rate is 10% driven by commerce and 90% driven by daytraders.

This actually represents a signifigant improvement and it's improving all the time. The ratio needs to invert, though, before bitcoin can really be considered mature enough to be a store of value.

I think no matter how big the bitcoin economy is it will always represent only 10% of the price the other 90% will always represent speculation. If the bitcoin economy grows to a 1 Billion dollar thing, then price will rise high enoght to allow for speculation to take 90% of the value. The only way this will change is if 100% of the people involved with bitcoin are paid in bitcoin and NEED to spend 90% of each bitcoin pay check to live comfortably. And so what if 90% of the price is pure speculation, 90% of the gold's value is pure speculation, no one cares, its just how it works.

[justusranvier]

I think no matter how big the bitcoin economy is it will always represent only 10% of the price the other 90% will always represent speculation. If the bitcoin economy grows to a 1 Billion dollar thing, then price will rise high enoght to allow for speculation to take 90% of the value. The only way this will change is if 100% of the people involved with bitcoin are paid in bitcoin and NEED to spend 90% of each bitcoin pay check to live comfortably. And so what if 90% of the price is pure speculation, 90% of the gold's value is pure speculation, no one cares, its just how it works.

The reason that existing markets are so dominated by speculation is because central banks can print up cheap credit at will to let their friends speculate with.

The ability to do this is severely curtailed with regards to Bitcoin trading.

[Technomage]

Okay guys.

Bitcoin mentioned on CNN TV multiple times.

Also, this article: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/06/politics/romney-tax-threat/index.html

Almost 4000 comments. There are multiple paragraphs on Bitcoin in that article.

Someone start posting those rockets. It's time.

[cypherdoc]

Okay guys.

Bitcoin mentioned on CNN TV multiple times.

Also, this article: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/06/politics/romney-tax-threat/index.html

Almost 4000 comments. There are multiple paragraphs on Bitcoin in that article.

Someone start posting those rockets. It's time.

[Crypt_Current]

"Jeff Garzik, listed on the Bitcoin website as part of its development team, told CNN the "consensus among the Bitcoin chattering class appears to be that this is a hoax." He cited an online forum in which many users express that view."

[adamstgBit]

"Jeff Garzik, listed on the Bitcoin website as part of its development team, told CNN the "consensus among the Bitcoin chattering class appears to be that this is a hoax." He cited an online forum in which many users express that view."

it probably is.

pretty sure it's a hoax, atlas posted this a month ago:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96616.msg1064381#msg1064381

[ElectricMucus]

"Jeff Garzik, listed on the Bitcoin website as part of its development team, told CNN the "consensus among the Bitcoin chattering class appears to be that this is a hoax." He cited an online forum in which many users express that view."

That doesn't stop anybody from posting rocket pictures though

[finkleshnorts]

"Jeff Garzik, listed on the Bitcoin website as part of its development team, told CNN the "consensus among the Bitcoin chattering class appears to be that this is a hoax." He cited an online forum in which many users express that view."

it probably is.

pretty sure it's a hoax, atlas posted this a month ago:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96616.msg1064381#msg1064381

Oh, hell yeah. I just got cross-posted.