How deep do you expect the price to fall?

[lebing]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

[adamstgBit]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

[lebing]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

[Sitarow]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

I subscribe to the pay day mentality and that people would like to buy things with bitcoin.... BFL?

[JMAHH]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

Monday is a holiday in the US. Banks are closed. People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip) will have to wait for Tuesday to wire in large amounts of money. We anticipate a jump in the rate then.

[Junko]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

Monday is a holiday in the US. Banks are closed. People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip) will have to wait for Tuesday to wire in large amounts of money. We anticipate a jump in the rate then.

You would think though that these "People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip)" would already have money on an exchange ready to buy on a dip -if that's what they were planning on doing anyway - and would not have to wait until Tuesday.

[kentrolla]

i think 9.66 was the lowest its going to get from now on.

so far so good on that prediction. i expect it to hold true

[JMAHH]

The rally has already started. People are buying in anticipation of Tuesday.

WTH happens on Tuesday?

Big rally that leaves all kinds on money behind  

lol or not

I got the rally part, but why 

Monday is a holiday in the US. Banks are closed. People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip) will have to wait for Tuesday to wire in large amounts of money. We anticipate a jump in the rate then.

You would think though that these "People with larger capital who want to buy Bitcoin (because of the dip)" would already have money on an exchange ready to buy on a dip -if that's what they were planning on doing anyway - and would not have to wait until Tuesday.

It's a hypothesis, thus no 100% proof. Still I can imagine that given the long-term optimism on Bitcoin's value some might consider the dip in question one of the last really good opportunities to get in - 'all' in (worth an extra transfer).

Interestingly we're going green right now (48h) so either the theory is:
- simply false
- correct but self-destructing since people are buying in anticipation, effectively erasing any 'all-in' incentives the Tuesday investors might have had to transfer big money.

[the_thing]

It's a hypothesis, thus no 100% proof. Still I can imagine that given the long-term optimism on Bitcoin's value some might consider the dip in question one of the last really good opportunities to get in - 'all' in (worth an extra transfer).

Interestingly we're going green right now (48h) so either the theory is:
- simply false
- correct but self-destructing since people are buying in anticipation, effectively erasing any 'all-in' incentives the Tuesday investors might have had to transfer big money.

Well, the price fell during the weekend (it's not 48h). Its rising might be caused by European and Asian investors since there's no Monday holiday. I expect it to rise some more, even though I have no idea what the week's maximum will be. What is your guess?

Also, I'm anticipating a larger crash because of Pirate's default. When is he originally supposed to pay out?

[JMAHH]

It's a hypothesis, thus no 100% proof. Still I can imagine that given the long-term optimism on Bitcoin's value some might consider the dip in question one of the last really good opportunities to get in - 'all' in (worth an extra transfer).

Interestingly we're going green right now (48h) so either the theory is:
- simply false
- correct but self-destructing since people are buying in anticipation, effectively erasing any 'all-in' incentives the Tuesday investors might have had to transfer big money.

Well, the price fell during the weekend (it's not 48h). Its rising might be caused by European and Asian investors since there's no Monday holiday. I expect it to rise some more, even though I have no idea what the week's maximum will be. What is your guess?

Also, I'm anticipating a larger crash because of Pirate's default. When is he originally supposed to pay out?

Europe and Asia: good point. I neglected a third possibility, which is that the rise in question has nothing to do with the theory at all.

Pirate: is there a possibility he is already priced in? The scam has become pretty obvious to most by now.

[the_thing]

Pirate: is there a possibility he is already priced in? The scam has become pretty obvious to most by now.

I'm convinced he is priced in, but it is questionable to what extent. People still have some hope to get their investments back and I think he still holds huge number of bitcoins and waits to dump them. One thing is for sure  - Pirate will either pay out, or not pay out. My theory is, that if he pays out, many investors will sell their bitcoins, driving the price down. If he doesn't pay out, FUD will conquer the market + pirate sells bitcoins driving the price down. So according to my theory, the price is going to fall either way. The question is when.

Any thoughts on my hypothesis?

[JMAHH]

Pirate: is there a possibility he is already priced in? The scam has become pretty obvious to most by now.

I'm convinced he is priced in, but it is questionable to what extent. People still have some hope to get their investments back and I think he still holds huge number of bitcoins and waits to dump them. One thing is for sure  - Pirate will either pay out, or not pay out. My theory is, that if he pays out, many investors will sell their bitcoins, driving the price down. If he doesn't pay out, FUD will conquer the market + pirate sells bitcoins driving the price down. So according to my theory, the price is going to fall either way. The question is when.

Any thoughts on my hypothesis?

I find myself agreeing with most of it. Timing is the greatest question mark.

[ElectricMucus]

I still think that pirate will not sell his bitcoins in the near future.

The price could tank regardless, but not as steep more like we had last year after 30, it could still accelerate at some point from panic sellers but no fractional digits crazyness. As of how low... idk, just this you can draw a linear trendline under the price from 0.9 to 2 and I don't think that would be broken.

[knight22]

I still think that pirate will not sell his bitcoins in the near future.

The price could tank regardless, but not as steep more like we had last year after 30, it could still accelerate at some point from panic sellers but no fractional digits crazyness. As of how low... idk, just this you can draw a linear trendline under the price from 0.9 to 2 and I don't think that would be broken.

+1
I think this is probably the absolute minimum value. This is probably the growing people who use bitcoin no matter its value.  Also if you look closer, The increase line you made has the same ratio than the bitcoin slight growth during the 5$ "stability" period. 

[the_thing]

I still think that pirate will not sell his bitcoins in the near future.

The price could tank regardless, but not as steep more like we had last year after 30, it could still accelerate at some point from panic sellers but no fractional digits crazyness. As of how low... idk, just this you can draw a linear trendline under the price from 0.9 to 2 and I don't think that would be broken.

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

[adamstgBit]

I still think that pirate will not sell his bitcoins in the near future.

The price could tank regardless, but not as steep more like we had last year after 30, it could still accelerate at some point from panic sellers but no fractional digits crazyness. As of how low... idk, just this you can draw a linear trendline under the price from 0.9 to 2 and I don't think that would be broken.

+1
I think this is probably the absolute minimum value. This is probably the growing people who use bitcoin no matter its value.  Also if you look closer, The increase line you made has the same ratio than the bitcoin slight growth during the 5$ "stability" period.  

ya but look as bitcoin goes up and down, its bouncing higher and higher away from that trend line   "min price line"

[ElectricMucus]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

[the_thing]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

I understand that. Technical analysis always looked to me like a combination of crowd psychology and genuine bullshit. I read a lot about lines, peaks and bottoms, channels and whatnot, but nobody really explained WHY. You provided the best explanation so far.

[ElectricMucus]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

I understand that. Technical analysis always looked to me like a combination of crowd psychology and genuine bullshit. I read a lot about lines, peaks and bottoms, channels and whatnot, but nobody really explained WHY. You provided the best explanation so far.

In general I agree, most of technical analysis is BS, because it is not back-tested in a scientifically rigorous fashion.

I see technical analysis as an analogue to this problem: Take an random photograph and extend it beyond the border. And depending on what is pictured it is possible to come to a somewhat useful conclusion: If the edge of the picture contains a table you can if only an edge is missing extrapolate where that edge should be in the picture, if there is an arm you can tell that there must be a person somewhere after it. But if there is a part of a rock it could be part of a bolder or a mountain.

Your critique is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, that is in a ideal market the price movement should be equivalent to Brownian motion (random walk). However most markets and especially bitcoin are no ideal markets, that is, by definition that not all fundamentals are available to everybody.

I don't really agree with the efficient market hypothesis either, I rather think that there are periods of unpredictable behavior, (the "picture" displays a texture like sand) and predictable behavior (there is a person in the picture which sits on a chair).

[JMAHH]

Care to explain why the minimum price is linear according to you? I mean... why not a curve? Wouldn't a curve be more likely?

I can't.
If you draw trendlines they usually fail in predictive power unless they are linear, the only explanation I have is crowd psychology. Other than that it seems completely random...

Well I would think that a (very slight) curve has its place since it represents an accelerating amount of 'hard-base users'. A linear line implies growth at the same rate. In the case of Bitcoin, which is now very slowly starting to trickle into mainstream, I see the former model as more representative; snowball style.