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Author Topic: The real reason for this decline: Monday is a Federal holiday.  (Read 1274 times)
Coincomm
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August 31, 2012, 11:51:06 PM
 #1

Everyone is betting on people cashing out desperately on the cheap on Monday due to little to no US dollars coming in. The current sells are just early claims on that event.
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adamstgBit
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September 01, 2012, 12:04:20 AM
 #2

Everyone is betting on people cashing out desperately on the cheap on Monday due to little to no US dollars coming in. The current sells are just early claims on that event.

at this point theirs so much cash in mtgox, weekends really dont make any difference...

Someone is obviously tried to take advantage of everyone fear of a weekend dip
Someone else is obviously trying to take advantage of everyone fear of a weekend dip
get it ? Cheesy

Coincomm
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September 01, 2012, 12:05:50 AM
 #3

Everyone is betting on people cashing out desperately on the cheap on Monday due to little to no US dollars coming in. The current sells are just early claims on that event.

at this point theirs so much cash in mtgox, weekends really dont make any difference...
There are immediate purchases outside this cash pool that are not found on weekends. That's why there is a weekend dip.
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September 01, 2012, 12:08:24 AM
 #4

Everyone is betting on people cashing out desperately on the cheap on Monday due to little to no US dollars coming in. The current sells are just early claims on that event.

at this point theirs so much cash in mtgox, weekends really dont make any difference...
There are immediate purchases outside this cash pool that are not found on weekends. That's why there is a weekend dip.

the immediate purchases are small and insignificant

anyone trying to buy big isn't sending money and buying it up immediately...

Stephen Gornick
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September 01, 2012, 12:43:47 AM
Last edit: September 01, 2012, 11:17:07 PM by Stephen Gornick
 #5

Everyone is betting on people cashing out desperately on the cheap on Monday due to little to no US dollars coming in. The current sells are just early claims on that event.

A few factors are in play.

There were a lot of options traded on MPEx in the last month and earlier today was the expiration.  Those with gains were mostly those who were short at higher levels.  If you went short then you certainly aren't of the mindset that sitting on those gains denominated in bitcoins would be a good idea, right?  So those are likely being liquidated now.

Intersango having no UK bank right now (Metro Bank no longer provides an account to them) is a disruption -- their BTC/GBP market was the third largest market for quite a while.

But the three day weekend in the U.S. is definitely a factor too.

The ponzi investors contributed to a lot of the BTC demand that helped to bring the BTC/USD up to $15 so it will take a bit for the price absent that demand to be discovered.

Bitcoin just had a couple weeks with a lot happening in online media ... the BitInstant debit card last week (which was a positive) and the ponzi story this week (which was definitely a negative).  So conditions were ripe for a little selloff here.

Those keeping their eye on the ball know that the block reward drop from 50 BTC to 25 BTC occurs in less than 100 days, regardless of the exchange rate.

Might as well vacuum up as many as you can with each dip because Bitcoin just keeps chugging along.  It keeps on going, with a greater variety and number of merchants, with more deposit and cash out methods from the exchanges, with improved and more secure client software and EWallet offerings, etc.

From the outside Bitcoin looks like a mess --  the exchange rate over the past weeks spiked to $15 and dropped down to about half that,... in just a matter of hours!  Then there still are hackings, scamming, ponzis, and wallet and software troubles.

But those actually using it are finding that Bitcoin does what it is supposed to do.  

  • Non-reversible transactions.   Has anyone lost money to a chargeback on a confirmed transaction?   Of course not, there is no such thing with Bitcoin.
  • Has anyone been surprised after sending bitcoin to learn that it cost $40 to send the funds, and that amount was subtracted automatically before the funds reached their destination?  Of course not.  That may be what banks do but with bitcoin the fees are known to the sender at the time time the payment is sent. The fees are trivially low anyway, nearly nobody even pays any mind to them.
  • Has anyone had to wait until the next day or longer waiting for access to the revenues they received through Bitcoin?  Of course not. Unlike Square, or credit card merchant accounts, or checks deposited at a bank even, funds received through Bitcoin can be spent in about an hour or less.
  • Has anyone not been able to send or receive bitcoin because the jursidiction where they live hasn't approved it?   Of course not, Bitcoin is universal -- anyone can use it, regardless of their geographic location and, to a large degree, economic status.

Now what many sellers this weekend do have is the cash proceeds from their selling which they plan to use to buy back their coins once the exchange rate drops even lower.  That's something a buyer eyeing these lower prices doesn't have as no wire transfers will clear until Monday (or Tuesday for those in the U.S. w/ the holiday)..

So it could easily be a bumpy weekend.

If you got the cash, there very well could be some good opportunities to score a nice return by Tuesday.

Unichange.me

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n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU
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September 01, 2012, 02:44:47 AM
 #6

Great post Stephen.  For many of us who follow Bitcoin 24/7, the constant scandals and volatility sometimes makes us miss the forest for the trees.  The long-term perspective is that Bitcoin has matured substantially over the past 12 months, and is fulfilling its initial promises.  Improvements have occurred on all fronts: technical, business development, international, liquidity, exchanges, etc.  Still lots of work to do, but also plenty of passionate & smart people actively tackling problems and improving the ecosystem.
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September 01, 2012, 05:06:40 AM
 #7

Great post Stephen.  For many of us who follow Bitcoin 24/7, the constant scandals and volatility sometimes makes us miss the forest for the trees.  The long-term perspective is that Bitcoin has matured substantially over the past 12 months, and is fulfilling its initial promises.  Improvements have occurred on all fronts: technical, business development, international, liquidity, exchanges, etc.  Still lots of work to do, but also plenty of passionate & smart people actively tackling problems and improving the ecosystem.


And most importantly many of those passionate and smart people are making money and that profitability will draw in more entrepreneurs who will solve yet more problems and improve the ecosystem.

Meanwhile the big 4 banks are looking at the next round of layoffs for thousands of employees.

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September 01, 2012, 10:24:47 PM
 #8

^^ You all 3... I like all your posts Wink.  Please keep making great posts.  It's great to hear concise thoughts and positives instead of the usual posts around here.  Then again I'll just blame the lack of that due to sitting in the speculation sub-forum...

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
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