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Author Topic: Noob Here Interested in Trading Bitcoin  (Read 4530 times)
randymarsh730
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September 01, 2012, 05:31:22 AM
 #1

Hi there, new to the forums. I'm looking into getting into trading Bitcoins. Here is my situation.
I am completely new to trading and have never traded anything before.
I have recently read several books on day trading, technical analysis and speculation so i have a small grasp of some of the basic theories behind trading.
I bought about 10k worth of BTC a few months back while it was at $5 as long term investment so I consider myself up right now with some extra money that I want to use for short term, medium term, or maybe even some day trading.
I am subscribed to a few people on the forums such as s3052 to get a more advanced traders reading of the Bitcoin charts.
I plan on spending many hours putting in work and learning this stuff.

I know trading is a risky game so can anyone give me some advice on how I should approach this?
Is 2000BTC enough to start trading?
How much profit could a good trader expect to make with 2000BTC and in what sort of timeframe?
How often do you guys make trades? Daily? Weekly? Monthly?
Are there any specific software or services or websites I should use?
Does anyone trade Bitcoin on here fulltime??
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.

Sorry if I'm posting in the wrong section.
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adamstgBit
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September 01, 2012, 05:45:18 AM
 #2

sell all your bitcoins now and buy them back Much lower Monday night

its that easy!

lol

 Wink

randymarsh730
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September 01, 2012, 06:04:08 AM
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I actually sold half my coins at $10.3. Now I guess I just need to wait.
If this works out it would seem almost too easy  Huh
ajk
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September 01, 2012, 06:18:46 AM
 #4

Hey marsh im in the same boat as well, moderately new to trading but have been following bitcoins for over a year now,

I would say that some good advice would be to always do your own analysis and use everyone elses with a grain of salt, ive noticed that 80% of the time what the general feelings of speculation related to the market are totally opposite, everyones always either trying to say theres going to be a crash to reap in cheap coins or vice versa,

BTC charts is the best for everything you need it has all indicators and the chart system is very good from what I can tell however Ive never traded forex, stocks, bonds, only bitcoin

some advice I was given is 2-5 day is good for short term but 10 day 1 mo will always give a more accurate depiction on the market

but im also new to lol always open to advice, good luck!

edit:
also 10-20k is definitely a good float as long as you can accurately play the downs and ups of the market you will definitely see some big return just make sure you are making more correct decisions than wrong, always take losing money as a learning experience thats the way I see it!,
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September 01, 2012, 10:33:01 AM
Last edit: September 01, 2012, 07:40:53 PM by Sitarow
 #5

I actually sold half my coins at $10.3. Now I guess I just need to wait.
If this works out it would seem almost too easy  Huh

The most difficult thing for me is when to make the "call" that I feel "OK" with. Buy or Sell.

For example. If after purchasing your 10k USD? of BTC at $5 each, make the call and liquidate at $15, netting you an estimated return minus fees and initial investment of $20,000 USD. However since you may have gambled BTC value would go higher, you missed the opportunity to maximize your gains.

You make the call to liquidate 1000BTC at $10.30 leaving you with realized gains of $300 + 1000BTC. Mind you that is nothing to scoff at.

However you lost out on $4700 if you decided to trade that 1000BTC at $15, instead of at $10.30.

OR you could of traded 2000 BTC at $15 gaining $20,000 after initial investment. Later reinvesting those earnings by trading at the $8 mark getting you back in the game holding 2500BTC. Finaly you make the call to liquidate 1000BTC of the 2500BTC at $10.30 having a realized net of $10,300 and 1500BTC minus initial investment of $10k, maximizing your profits.  

Trouble is hind sight is 20/20 Cheesy
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September 01, 2012, 11:02:51 AM
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Ah, the arrogance of naivete and the fallacy of winning a zero sum game. Just remember that when you trade bitcoins because you believe the price will go up (or down), you are trading with another person who is equally convinced that the price will go down (or up). How do you know that you are right and the other person is wrong?

btw, technical analysis is fantasy dressed up to look like science. It's about as valid as homeopathy and its predictive powers are on par with astrology.

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September 01, 2012, 11:26:41 AM
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btw, technical analysis is fantasy dressed up to look like science. It's about as valid as homeopathy and its predictive powers are on par with astrology.

I think technical analysis can be another valuable tool - although I especially doubt it's usefulness with a small market like Bitcoin and it's ability to be overwhelmed by such things as popular press exposure.

If you have some money to throw around and don't need to have your orders executed immediately I would encourage you to check out some of the exchanges with liquidity rebates. My exchange, BitMe, is considered to be in beta right now so account limits are very conservatively restricted and liquidity is naturally low, but I am offering 0.55% rebates for the time being which could help the bottom line.
Shadow383
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September 01, 2012, 01:18:45 PM
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btw, technical analysis is fantasy dressed up to look like science. It's about as valid as homeopathy and its predictive powers are on par with astrology.
BUT
It is something worth keeping an eye on, particularly in markets like these where there are a lot of idiots who believe in the predictive power of this rubbish trading.
ajk
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September 01, 2012, 06:59:15 PM
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Ah, the arrogance of naivete and the fallacy of winning a zero sum game. Just remember that when you trade bitcoins because you believe the price will go up (or down), you are trading with another person who is equally convinced that the price will go down (or up). How do you know that you are right and the other person is wrong?

btw, technical analysis is fantasy dressed up to look like science. It's about as valid as homeopathy and its predictive powers are on par with astrology.




Lol is this even serious? Why dont you tell that to anyone on wall street and see how many people laugh at you or try to take your money

so what do you base your trading on? hopes and dreams? i think most traders will agree that none of them trade on guess they trade on statistics, patterns, news, so many factors come into the play of overall bitcoin price and your saying that technical analysis is a fancy science?

How do you know who is right or wrong? that doesnt matter this is the market regardless of the price going up or down price doesnt mean shit, you change your strategy based on whats going on, tell this to the many traders here that are making money on every down and up swing that happens,

hazek
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September 01, 2012, 08:50:24 PM
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Technical analysis is relevant only because other people think it's relevant.

What you really need to understand is game theory, everything else is just a subset of various factors of the game that's being played.

You can learn game theory here: http://www.academicearth.org/courses/game-theory

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September 01, 2012, 09:24:13 PM
 #11

Trade 100 coins first as practice. 

IamRichard
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September 01, 2012, 09:34:53 PM
 #12

"How much profit could a good trader expect to make with 2000BTC and in what sort of timeframe?"

This is completely wrong mentality.

Ill try to explain a bit.

I worked previously at a major wall street firm as a prop trader. The way you need to approach things is from a risk perspective.

Simple thing is:
10% chance to lose 5k
20% chance to lose 1k
30% chance to break even
20% chance to make 1k
20% chance to make 2k

Would you take this trade?I hope you can easily solve this problem.

From my experience, you have to focus on defense before offense. Worry about how much you can lose vs how much you can make.

This is single handily the largest error traders encounter when they start trading. You get greedy, you get slaughtered (its happened to me many times lol)
hazek
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September 01, 2012, 11:15:36 PM
 #13

(its happened to me many times lol)

So your advice essentially is "Do as I say, not as I do!"?

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
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September 02, 2012, 12:33:30 AM
Last edit: September 02, 2012, 12:43:51 AM by waveaddict
 #14

Hi there, new to the forums. I'm looking into getting into trading Bitcoins. Here is my situation.
I am completely new to trading and have never traded anything before.
I have recently read several books on day trading, technical analysis and speculation so i have a small grasp of some of the basic theories behind trading.
I bought about 10k worth of BTC a few months back while it was at $5 as long term investment so I consider myself up right now with some extra money that I want to use for short term, medium term, or maybe even some day trading.
I am subscribed to a few people on the forums such as s3052 to get a more advanced traders reading of the Bitcoin charts.
I plan on spending many hours putting in work and learning this stuff.

I know trading is a risky game so can anyone give me some advice on how I should approach this?
Is 2000BTC enough to start trading?
How much profit could a good trader expect to make with 2000BTC and in what sort of timeframe?
How often do you guys make trades? Daily? Weekly? Monthly?
Are there any specific software or services or websites I should use?
Does anyone trade Bitcoin on here fulltime??
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.

Sorry if I'm posting in the wrong section.

There are a couple basic rules to trading successfully (compared to investing):

1. The less you trade, the more you make. Weight every trade with a risk/benefit analysis

2. Be consistent with how you trade and learn everything about the art/science of technical analysis (TA).

3. Never bet everything all at once

4. Don't bet the farm on someone's advice Wink ... Learn to think for yourself

5. Trading is rarely logical from a fundamental viewpoint. Trade what is in front of you (what the charts say) instead of where you think/want the price to go.

6. Learn to fade the crowd.

7. Never hold onto a loss in the hopes of breaking even if the charts warn of a sell-off. Also, learn to take profits during an uptrend.

8. Think of your trading funds as play/monopoly money.

randymarsh730
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September 02, 2012, 02:52:58 AM
 #15

Thanks for the advice everyone. Cheesy

After looking at some other markets like stocks, commodities, forex etc. it seems to me that Bitcoin is the best place for a beginner to start in trading. You don't need to go throguh a broker, the fees are minimal, there's good volatility, the fundamentals aren't as complicated, and it seems very bullish long term.

Now just waiting for the price to drop.  Grin
finkleshnorts
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September 02, 2012, 04:27:29 AM
 #16

Trading bitcoins is fun, sort of like how satoshidice is fun. That's about it though.

Technical analysis for bitcoin trading is just silly. Hazek is right here, it's all about game theory. If you really want to trade, keep all your coins on the exchange, and get ready to buy or sell based on how you think events surrounding bitcoin will be perceived by other bitcoin traders.
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September 02, 2012, 04:45:41 AM
Last edit: September 02, 2012, 05:08:10 AM by iamag
 #17

Lol,

Honest bob that is not really that sound of advice,

Saying technical analysis is silly would be the same as calling game theory silly, xing out either one completely is just screwing yourself in the long run, thinking that technical analysis is worthless will only lead to one thing, You never taking the time to learn it, Everything in trading is important and has a play on the market,

Game theory is not something im familiar with but ill try to get familiar with it because hell if its good then its something I can add to my repertoire but calling technical analysis silly IS silly,

Also ive learned anyone that calls themselves honest usually isnt. and throw in the furby avatar kind of tops the cake who im going to listen to, but saying to put all your money on the exchange and then gambling it all away? might as well make it fun and go to vegas
 
trade with what you can risk losing, as wave said you play with the farm your going to lose just that if you make the wrong decision, takes money to make money so make sure to always have a reserve.
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September 02, 2012, 04:46:42 AM
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Noob, huh?
Well, there WAS this nice investment trust fund that had a good payout.
But that ship sailed recently...
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September 02, 2012, 04:57:08 AM
 #19

Hi there, new to the forums. I'm looking into getting into trading Bitcoins. Here is my situation.
I am completely new to trading and have never traded anything before.
I have recently read several books on day trading, technical analysis and speculation so i have a small grasp of some of the basic theories behind trading.
I bought about 10k worth of BTC a few months back while it was at $5 as long term investment so I consider myself up right now with some extra money that I want to use for short term, medium term, or maybe even some day trading.
I am subscribed to a few people on the forums such as s3052 to get a more advanced traders reading of the Bitcoin charts.
I plan on spending many hours putting in work and learning this stuff.

I know trading is a risky game so can anyone give me some advice on how I should approach this?
Is 2000BTC enough to start trading?
How much profit could a good trader expect to make with 2000BTC and in what sort of timeframe?
How often do you guys make trades? Daily? Weekly? Monthly?
Are there any specific software or services or websites I should use?
Does anyone trade Bitcoin on here fulltime??
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.

Sorry if I'm posting in the wrong section.

There are a couple basic rules to trading successfully (compared to investing):

1. The less you trade, the more you make. Weight every trade with a risk/benefit analysis

2. Be consistent with how you trade and learn everything about the art/science of technical analysis (TA).

3. Never bet everything all at once

4. Don't bet the farm on someone's advice Wink ... Learn to think for yourself

5. Trading is rarely logical from a fundamental viewpoint. Trade what is in front of you (what the charts say) instead of where you think/want the price to go.

6. Learn to fade the crowd.

7. Never hold onto a loss in the hopes of breaking even if the charts warn of a sell-off. Also, learn to take profits during an uptrend.

8. Think of your trading funds as play/monopoly money.
2. Show me the science.
5. Chart history cannot predict future, especially in bitcoin. In any case, even f you only look at your current chart you are thinking about where you think the chart will go in the future. Everything is about where the chart will be in the future, no matter what data you care to use to predict it.
6. fading the crowd is just creating another crowd which can be played against.
hazek
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September 02, 2012, 10:18:47 AM
 #20

5. Chart history cannot predict future, especially in bitcoin.

It can but only to the extend others believe it can  Wink

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
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