=Analysis Fractal=

[Livermore]

https://i.imgur.com/EJp8fmh.jpg  -  link to big chart.

Hello, Fractal Analysis using overlay of $32 and $1200 bubbles. Just idle musings, definitely don't trade solely on this analysis. Currently Scenario A is strongest due to lack of major 200EMA conflicts. Comparison A is zoomed in too much, chart is much more aesthetically convincing zoomed out a bit.  

Note the similarities in indicator fluctuations for the scen, especially major points around elliot waves 2, 4, A, B, C. Also indicators not shown here include StochRSI, EMA crossovers in 7/21 and 9/30, daily and weekly. These indicators support A the most, but B and C are also valid to slightly lesser extent.

Cumulative volume indicators, such as volume OBV, money flow and Accumulation/Distribution lines, are not reliable here - exchanges fluctuate in popularity.

ADX and such, are inconclusive thus far.

Crashes bouncing off near-exact 200EMA are very significant.

Fibonacci levels useless.

Bollinger Bands inconclusive because of how arbitrary the paramaters are and how sensitive the bands can be to parameters.

Parabolic SAR supports Scen A with varying paramaters - its mathematical basis is similar to that of 200EMA after all.


qualifications: I am math genius and successful trader thus far, %, $, and max-drawdown-proportion wise.

A implies 150 was the bottom, we are flat then slow up from here.
B implies 1 more drop, perhaps a double bottom. Bottom at $90.
C implies 2 more drops, one bottom near $90, another at $50. The $50 would be Extremely Significant. All the stars and planets align.

Vote which scen you foresee you bunch of homo sapiens
 

https://i.imgur.com/EJp8fmh.jpg

[manselr]

I believe in a 150 bottom, even tho I don't see it as far fetched to see a 90 ish bottom, a quick visit to double figures before we truly start the next bubble cycle. I hope so since for anyone collecting BTC now is good news.

[Amph]

it's all about if "the majority" think that we have already a good price to buy or not(seeing how we are not rising, i don't think so...), it is possible that "the majority" are waiting for something lower around 150-200 to start buying in mass(despite this i don't want to vote for A), nothing is really clear at the moment, but we should at least be safe from sub 100...

i voted none

[Livermore]

it's all about if "the majority" think that we have already a good price to buy or not

I only posted fractals and indicators because they are objective. Emotion is interpretation, is arbitrary. hard to measure.

But still important.

[minerpumpkin]

Scenario C would imply the serious hurt was still ahead of us - which of course could very well be, although it wouldn't be a very comfortable situations for most of us. Interesting idea, and even though I also believe Bitcoin to be highly fractal (like many charts), I don't think it's that easy to predict future price movements!

[americanpegasus]

I love your user name.

[afbitcoins]

Option A is closest to my own expectations. Very interesting analysis thanks for sharing that

[inca]

Hey maths genius, care to show how this technique worked at predicting the future when backtested on the previous bubbles?

[Livermore]

Hey maths genius, care to show how this technique worked at predicting the future when backtested on the previous bubbles?

Speculative fractal patterns are highly up to the arbitrary interpretation of the chart-holder. I attempt to chart possible scenarios matching up past patterns of tops, crashes, and intersections with major indicators (200day EMA for example) and rule out scenarios as market disproves them over time, narrowing the possibilities to just a few, or even just 1.

This is not the sole basis of my trading, I use other indicators too.

------

Here is one of my works from 2013. Due to a variety of analysis, that chart included, I did end up going all in at $75 ish on the big capitulation of June 2013. Lovely right?

:Charts:

I took the 2011 bubble chart, overlayed it on the current chart to match the top, bottom, sucker's rally and resistance levels, and appended the extra portion to the current graph. Very simple TA but it has made me extravagant amounts of money so far.

In one month we shall compare the actual chart to this chart, and they might be very similar.

"But this time it's different!"

Thoughts?


https://i.imgur.com/gtyiKji.png

Of course there remains the possibility of a similar situation to August 2012. This situation would take BTC on a rally to 180 and then a flatline.

However, note that this activity occured when the price of BTC was close to the all-time logarithmic trend line.
Also, November was the block reward halving event. Thus this rally was further fueled by the halving of the BTC supply.
Given the current high price of BTC relative to changes in infrastructure, as well as the deviation from the logarithmic trendline and lack of block halving, this possibility remains very unlikely.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zig6-hourzczsg2012-05-19zeg2012-12-12ztgSzm1g40zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2012-05-19&e=2012-12-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=40&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

[Livermore]

https://i.imgur.com/8RkX8g7.png

New analysis, this time monthly chart with the 2000's Yahoo bubble. In this view the entire move of BTC from $5 to $1200 was one massive bubble in three parts, not three bubbles.

This fractal supports Scen B: Bottom at $90.

AO supports B and C.
Fisher supports B and C.
Aroon supports B.

Very bullish if price breaks above $330, the 10month (30 week, 200day) EMA, scenario B and C become very unlikely. Otherwise its current destiny is down down down to $90 for a capitulation bottom. We shall see.


My suggestion: Current portfolio 70%BTC 30%Fiat. If price breaks under 210, all out and rebuy at $90 (Scen B playing with possible Scen C continuation). If price breaks above $330, all in (Scen A playing).


https://i.imgur.com/8RkX8g7.png

[americanpegasus]

@ Livermore:  
  
First of all, amazing job on the charts so far.  I am studying them with bated breath.  
  
Secondly, in honor of yourself, me, and a gentleman online who wrote a paper describing bitcoin price's fractal nature, I hereby dub this Pegafractal Cryptovivik Livernalysis, and have made a very corporate logo to celebrate.  
  
 

[americanpegasus]

@ Livermore: 
 
Now, looking at your most recent charts, I *want* to believe that we are at the bottom of the channel, because I am heavily vested in bitcoin right now. 
 
But I would be lying if I didn't acknowledge that your fractals show a new possible drop to unbelievably low levels.  However, we both know that speculation trumps fundamentals trumps technical analysis. 
 
So it would make sense that we *would* have hit that low of double digits, but we are actually going to stay above it (artificially) due to all the positive news and artificial buy walls in between $90 and $210. 
 
I would tend to agree with you though, that if we break down through $210, we will meet resistance below $150.   
 
This seems impossible with current developments, investments, and conditions but stranger things have happened. 
 
Now, here's the exciting bit.  If you are right, and the previous pattern started at $5 and carried us to $1,000 then we are looking at a penultimate peak of $40,000 for the next macro-movement.   
 
Astute followers of Cryptovivik Livernalysis may be taking this pattern out to its logical conclusion. 
 
They will find the next 'crash' may take us down about 85% from the new high of approximately $40,000 to around $6,000 per coin, which then begins the next macro-bubble of...   (hold onto your butts) a ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin. 
 
If the cycle repeated again, that $1.2 million dollar bitcoin would crash down to $180,000 before beginning a move to $36,000,000 per coin which would take bitcoin's market cap to *above* the total value of money on Earth. 
 
This would logically lead to a nasty crash down to 15% of the value, or a final fluctuating value of about $5M per bitcoin. 
 

Now this assumes the fractal will keep the same severity of movement through the echelons.  Likely, it would flatten out and the movements would become less severe through each successive macro-movement, leading to final bitcoin stabilization. 
 
Just be aware that a final value of $5,000,000 is by no means set in stone for bitcoin, especially if it becomes the default reserve currency of Earth.

[Livermore]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6S9Si6F7-BTCUSD-STILL-REMAINS-IN-OVERALL-BEARISH-CYCLE-UPDATE/

DanV's Elliot Waves support scen B: Final bottom at $90

So far scen B seems most likely. 1. Indicators are on point. 2. Fractals are on point. 3. It is least popular voted in the poll.

If we break under 210, Scen A is ruled out and we face the mother of all capitulations

[Livermore]

@ Livermore:  
  $40,000 for the next macro-movement
  
  ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.  
  
 

No. This thread is for fractal analysis not for get-rich-quick dreams.

[pseudocrypto]

@ Livermore:  
  $40,000 for the next macro-movement
  
  ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.  
  
 

No. This thread is for fractal analysis not for get-rich-quick dreams.

Can you believe this guy posted a thread on reddit implying that your analysis claims $40,000 BTC? When are people going to learn to stop upvoting hyper delusional americanpegasus posts. Someone has been smoking the bath salts again..........

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/35ozkj/fractal_analysis_suggests_we_are_near_the_bottom/

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

On reddit it's treated as partial satire, which plays well there so it gets upvoted. Still, the next bubble following the trend would be expected to be something like that. It's not a particularly surprising result, though saying it's from Livermore's analysis is a step too far.

[americanpegasus]

@ Livermore:  
  $40,000 for the next macro-movement
  
  ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.  
  
 

No. This thread is for fractal analysis not for get-rich-quick dreams.

Your own fractal analysis suggests that whatever the bottom is, once it is past we will be starting a new monster bull run, right?  This cycle will take about 3 years.   
 
And the peak of that bull run should take us to around $40,000. 
 
Considering even you think that's unlikely, it probably will be the true figure, as the peak of each bubble comes as a shock to most of the participants.

[lebing]

 
And the peak of that bull run should take us to around $40,000. 
 

Can you ELI5 please exactly how you came up with that figure? His analysis looks more bearish to me than anything else.

[Livermore]

peak of that bull run should take us to around $40,000. 
 

Considering we are under 200day EMA ($310), which means we are still officially in a bear market, it is 5 stages too early to be calling peaks of next bubble, if that even happens.

[slaveforanunnak1]

@ Livermore: 
 
Now, looking at your most recent charts, I *want* to believe that we are at the bottom of the channel, because I am heavily vested in bitcoin right now. 
 
But I would be lying if I didn't acknowledge that your fractals show a new possible drop to unbelievably low levels.  However, we both know that speculation trumps fundamentals trumps technical analysis. 
 
So it would make sense that we *would* have hit that low of double digits, but we are actually going to stay above it (artificially) due to all the positive news and artificial buy walls in between $90 and $210. 
 
I would tend to agree with you though, that if we break down through $210, we will meet resistance below $150.   
 
This seems impossible with current developments, investments, and conditions but stranger things have happened. 
 
Now, here's the exciting bit.  If you are right, and the previous pattern started at $5 and carried us to $1,000 then we are looking at a penultimate peak of $40,000 for the next macro-movement.   
 
Astute followers of Cryptovivik Livernalysis may be taking this pattern out to its logical conclusion. 
 
They will find the next 'crash' may take us down about 85% from the new high of approximately $40,000 to around $6,000 per coin, which then begins the next macro-bubble of...   (hold onto your butts) a ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin. 
 
If the cycle repeated again, that $1.2 million dollar bitcoin would crash down to $180,000 before beginning a move to $36,000,000 per coin which would take bitcoin's market cap to *above* the total value of money on Earth. 
 
This would logically lead to a nasty crash down to 15% of the value, or a final fluctuating value of about $5M per bitcoin. 
 

Now this assumes the fractal will keep the same severity of movement through the echelons.  Likely, it would flatten out and the movements would become less severe through each successive macro-movement, leading to final bitcoin stabilization. 
 
Just be aware that a final value of $5,000,000 is by no means set in stone for bitcoin, especially if it becomes the default reserve currency of Earth.

Okay.. um... yea... so ... i think if bitcoin hits the 100K + per coin range, then people are not going to "sell" to get fiat. You'll just buy whatever the fuck you want with bitcoin. At which point then you can simply buy a house by the beach for like 6 coins. thats my opinion.