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Author Topic: BTCWagering.com "The Comeback" 💥 Sports Media Power Plays 💥 4-4 -0.12 BTC  (Read 1164 times)
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BTCWagering
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May 06, 2015, 09:16:09 PM
Last edit: May 29, 2015, 05:15:22 PM by BTCWagering
 #1



Hey Everyone! Today we're starting anew in our quest to profit in the amazingly challenging world of Sports Betting. Who doesn't love a good comeback story?

We started our site about a year ago and as far as picks go, we've had our ups and downs but ultimately a number of factors led to an unacceptable number of losses:

  • Impulsive betting
  • Erratic unit sizes
  • Choosing between spread and moneyline bets

Today we're resetting our record (yes the old record is logged forever), and adopting some rules to eliminate the problems above:

  • All bets are based on Sports Media, our specialty at BTC Wagering.
  • There must always be something at stake for both sides in a particular contest - no dead rubbers.
  • We're starting with a virtual bankroll of 10 BTC and every bet will be equal to 5% of the current bankroll.
  • Spread bets only.
  • All bets will be posted here at least 30 minutes prior to the start time.
  • All odds will be with Nitrogen Sports and we will provide a betslip to back it up, however our real bankroll is based on affiliate payments and will start much lower than the virtual bankroll.

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 06, 2015, 09:31:35 PM
Last edit: May 07, 2015, 01:31:40 PM by BTCWagering
 #2

Play #1! May 6, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 10 BTC

The play: Los Angeles Clippers +7 (+101) 0.5 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


The Clippers were extremely impressive in Game 1 while the Rockets suddenly looked confused after destroying a very bad Mavericks team in Round 1.

However the media reaction, specifically on ESPN.com, made the Clippers look very bad.

If you look at the media link, there are 2 large pictures of Blake Griffin where his face looks very strange, the second of which was repeated over and over. The photo of Chris Paul above (via SportsNetwork) which we posted to Twitter @BTCWagering also looks strange to us.

From an action perspective, this is not a huge event in terms of wagering handle. It is a midweek, Round 2 NBA matchup. Therefore the type of person betting on this is not your average Joe Public bettor, but rather a hardcore junkie type of bettor. It is in these more degenerate spots where a bluff is more likely. The Clippers are the obvious pick, but we think the majority of people will overthink this one and end up on the Rockets.

[Betslip]

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 07, 2015, 04:49:58 AM
Last edit: May 07, 2015, 01:31:20 PM by BTCWagering
 #3

BOOOOOOOOM!!! 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰 CLIPPERSSS 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰

Current virtual bankroll: 10.505 BTC (1-0 +0.505 BTC)



** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 08, 2015, 07:46:15 PM
Last edit: May 09, 2015, 10:42:44 PM by BTCWagering
 #4

Play #2! May 8, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 10.505 BTC

The play: Chicago Bulls -2 (-108) 0.525 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


After getting wrecked by Chicago in Game 1, LeBron James rallied his shorthanded side to destroy the Bulls from pillar to post in Game 2, posting 33 points and a bunch of other solid numbers. It was easily James' biggest triumph since returning to Cleveland last summer.

Unfortunately for King James however, he has been thoroughly lionized for that performance in the media, and now heads to Chicago, a team he has dominated in the playoffs over the past 5 years, with the same weakened squad that looked in grave danger just 4 nights ago. A quick look at the media link reveals no shortage of celebration for the Cavs' recent victory.

After a blank slate last night, the NBA returns tonight with a pair of crucial Game 3's in the two most appealing matchups of the Playoffs thus far. Therefore we expect a sizable amount of action on both games, although the Sunday slate figures to be far bigger, with the casual fans turning out. Given that the line here is near pick'em, it boils down to which of the previous two games you think will have more bearing on tonight's result. For our money, given that the media has given us every reason to believe the Cavs are back, we'll take the Bulls with our Play of the Day.

[Betslip]

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 09, 2015, 02:51:44 AM
 #5

BOOOOOOOOM!!! 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰 BULLSSS 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰

Current virtual bankroll: 10.991 BTC (2-0 +0.991 BTC)



** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 09, 2015, 10:43:08 PM
 #6

Play #3! May 9, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 10.991 BTC

The play: Golden State Warriors -4.5 (-110) 0.55 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


Left for dead after getting blitzed in Game 1, Mike Conley's return from injury keyed the Memphis Grizzlies to a shocking outright road win over the Warriors in Game 2. Returning home with a surprising series split, the question now becomes: Is this a competitive series with Memphis actually having a chance, or will their upset victory look like a flash in the pan when all is said and done?

There is no question that Golden State is in fact lightyears ahead in terms of talent and overall cohesiveness. The Grizzlies figure to be fired up coming out for this one and their home crowd will no doubt be ecstatic to welcome them home after cashing as a 6-1 dog last time out, but sometimes you're just outgunned. From a Memphis backer's perspective that will be the risk in every game of this series, and the media suggests that an overreaction to a single loss has already occurred.

For tonight's NBA slate, being sandwiched between the more intriguing series shown yesterday and tomorrow, expect dragons. There will be virtually no casual bettors out tonight; rather they will be out drinking like normal people do. Perhaps that will create precisely the opening we need to capitalize on the seemingly unfair matchup of the high-flying Warriors versus the grind-it-out Grizzlies.

[Betslip]

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 10, 2015, 06:58:52 PM
 #7

Play #4! May 10, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 10.441 BTC

The play: Chicago Bulls +2 (+112) 0.52 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


The series between the Bulls and Cavs has reached a boiling point. After losing a close game on the last shot, Game 4 will either tie the series or stretch it to a 3-1 Bulls lead.

The media reaction to that last second shot by Derrick Rose was surprisingly soft.

This is a huge Sunday primetime game and we believe Cleveland has no choice but to go all in on their Cavaliers. So we're riding the Bulls again for our Play of the Day.

[Betslip]

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 11, 2015, 12:08:36 AM
Last edit: May 11, 2015, 02:54:44 AM by BTCWagering
 #8

Play #5! May 10, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 10.441 BTC

The play: Los Angeles Clippers -7 (-102) 0.52 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


The Rockets got absolutely manhandled in Game 3 and based on the previous two games, it appears to be a culmination of the disparity in talent rather than an outlier in terms of expectation.

The media for this was very fishy with pukey photos of Chris Paul and a suggestion that he might even be out for this game. Austin Rivers was suspiciously featured when guys like JJ Redick had even better performances.

This is basically a tilt spot for bettors after an insane middle in the featured game between the Cavs and Bulls. We expect degenerate gamblers to find a way to favor the dog Rockets here and to sadly get embarrassed just like they did on Friday night. Play on the Clippers since the early game was a push for our spread wager.

[Betslip]

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 11, 2015, 02:51:49 AM
 #9

BOOOOOOOOM!!! 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰 CLIPPERSSS 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰

Current virtual bankroll: 10.95 BTC (3-1 +0.95 BTC)



** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 12, 2015, 12:59:20 AM
 #10

Play #6! May 11, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 10.95 BTC

The play: Memphis Grizzlies +4 (-109) 0.55 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


After coming out hot and holding on for the victory in Golden State in Game 2, the Memphis Grizzlies were even more impressive at home in Game 3, basically subduing the Warriors from the second quarter on. That sets up a massively high stakes game for both teams tonight, because a Memphis win should basically eliminate the Warriors, while a loss would make it seem like those shock victories were almost for naught, as taking 2 of 3 without home-court advantage would seem a nearly impossible task.

We were wrong to pick against Memphis in Game 3, but a review of the media explains why: The Grizzlies simply weren't getting much credit for their win. Reviewing the reaction to Game 3, that appears to remain the case, with some of the reaction photos even painting Memphis in a negative light.

This should be an interesting spot in terms of betting action. As a Monday game after a wild weekend of NBA basketball, we generally wouldn't expect many people to turn up to bet. But this is by far the main event of the evening, and as noted above it is an especially high-stakes game for the teams involved. We're looking for Warriors fans to unload from their war chest of regular season winnings and therefore we'll take Memphis with our Play of the Day.

[Betslip]

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May 12, 2015, 10:30:28 PM
 #11

Play #7! May 12, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 10.4 BTC

The play: Chicago Bulls +5 (+101) 0.52 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


On Mother's Day LeBron James once again rallied his squad after a seemingly devastating bank shot by Derrick Rose went in to end game 3.

The problem with the victory however, is that it probably shouldn't have been possible. The Cavs should have been called for a technical foul when their head coach called a timeout he didn't have. This seemingly obvious fact seems to have been lost in the celebration of the high drama of LeBron James clutch game-winner to end the game, and the media reflects this.

The Cavs team has been telling their fans to go all-in and we think this is the spot where they will. Give us the Bulls tonight for the Play of the Day.

[Betslip]

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 14, 2015, 12:11:11 AM
 #12

Play #8! May 13, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 10.4 BTC

The play: Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 (-104) 0.52 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


After winning Games 2 and 3 in the series, the Grizzlies returned to their Game 1 form in Game 4, getting blown out the entire way. It's safe to say those "bookend" performances by the Warriors are more so what people expected coming into the series.

Analyzing the media reaction to Game 4, there is no doubt that the focus is squarely on Golden State and their leader Stephen Curry, although it may not be immediately clear whether these images are hype or rather a soft reaction to a great performance. However when we factor in some of the secondary and late-breaking media, it seems clear that the Warriors are in fact getting pumped up.

In terms of action, while nothing close to a big Sunday card where we could expect the public to turn out, tonight does have the feel of a midweek betting fiesta of sorts. We have Game 7 featuring New York and Washington in the NHL, along with 2 highly relevant 2nd Round NBA Playoff matchups, with some MLB sprinkled in for good measure. We think that the hardcore gamblers will give the Warriors a lot of credit for Monday's road result, and back up the truck on them at home. We're going with the Grizzlies for our Play of the Day.

[Betslip]

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 20, 2015, 11:06:57 PM
 #13

Play #9! May 20, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 9.9 BTC

The play: Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 (+100) 0.5 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


Both teams are coming off of 6-game victories over teams weakened by injury. The Cavs played a competitive series against the Bulls, who were mostly without Pau Gasol, but to the surprise of many Cleveland really throttled the Bulls in the last 2 games. The Hawks went neck and neck with the Wizards who were mostly without their best player John Wall, and when he did come back he was not himself, but Atlanta was able to hold on for the victory in some exciting games down the stretch.

Looking at the media reaction to their respective games, neither team looks particularly good, however what stands out the most is an outright evil looking LeBron James which was posted to ESPN front page for a good long while. We also note that the in-game reaction to the Hawks win looks much better than what the Cavs were given. Finally, the SN reaction to the last Cavs game has a bizarre title - "Bull-dozed" - and a rather unflattering photo to go with it.

As a midweek game there will be very little "public" action in this spot as the handle during the week is always dominated by hardcore gamblers. Therefore we should always be wary of selling the "quality" side, which should be the Cavs here as they have by far the best player and a cast of characters who seem to be gelling as a unit and should be getting healthier coming off a nice break. Furthermore, the "surprise" side won ATS last night with the Rockets covering, and we expect a return to normalcy with Cleveland coming out on top tonight.

[Betslip]

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 21, 2015, 03:23:45 AM
 #14

BOOOOOOOOM!!! 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰 CAVVVVS 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰

Current virtual bankroll: 10.4 BTC (4-3 +0.4 BTC)



** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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May 27, 2015, 11:44:44 PM
 #15

Play #10! May 27, 2015

Current virtual bankroll: 10.4 BTC

The play: Houston Rockets +10 (-113) 0.52 BTC



Additional Media

Analysis:


The Western Conference Finals between the Rockets and Warriors has seen a strange variety of games. Two close ones featuring wild in-game swings kicked things off, followed by a Golden State blowout and then a Houston blowout in Games 3 and 4. While the Rockets won Game 4, the Warriors seemed dangerous throughout, and with the series shifting back to Oakland for Game 5, it is genuinely difficult to make a prediction from a basketball standpoint.

We noted some irregularities in the media reaction which lead us to a play on Houston. SN oddly focused on Stephen Curry's in-game drama in a game where his team got blown out even with him in the game. Then they chose a picture of Harden "stirring the pot" as the main reaction photo, rather than any 1 of his 45 points in the game. Then, ESPN oddly wiped the final score from its front page soon after the game, and a significant score at that where Golden State gave up a season-high 128 points. Finally, Covers provided a sharp contrast in its "Dance Team War" while emails from TradeSports and Linemakers painted the Rockets in a very unfavorable light.

In terms of action, this is yet another midweek degenerate spot which won't have a huge betting handle. Therefore a bluff in the betting line is more likely, and with Cleveland having punched its ticket last night, there is a palpable anticipation for a Cavs / Warriors final, and the big spread tonight should be music to Warriors fans' ears, inspiring plenty of confidence for them to bet and avoid giving LeBron James and co. any extra time to rest. Let's get it with the Rockets tonight in our play of the day.

[Betslip]

** This is a self-moderated thread. Posts that are negative or don't contribute anything will be deleted. No sig advertising allowed except for Sportsbooks **
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