the effect of GBTC (and what will be the effect of COIN)

[zby]

My theory:  GBTC caused a small rally on rumors (or/and by insiders) - but when it proved to be completely irrelevant (at least for now) the rally is being reversed by huge dumps.
And COIN can have a similar effect - sure it will not have exactly the same supply problem as GBTC - but I don't think it'll have too much demand unless it is started after we have a rally already. So if it is really started this month or next - then it will only accelerate the downtrend, because people will lose hope.

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[inca]

My theory:  GBTC caused a small rally on rumors (or/and by insiders) - but when it proved to be completely irrelevant (at least for now) the rally is being reversed by huge dumps.
And COIN can have a similar effect - sure it will not have exactly the same supply problem as GBTC - but I don't think it'll have too much demand unless it is started after we have a rally already. So if it is really started this month or next - then it will only accelerate the downtrend, because people will lose hope.

Someone dumped 40k onto finex last night. Not to close a speculative position and wait to re-enter, but instead to try with lots of money to paint a further decline down to 200.

They failed for once and will either buy back or try again.

GBTC gives wall street a sniff. But COIN will suck btc out of the market and provide significant on exchange demand if it is only slightly popular. It will allow a burgeoning bubble to go parabolic to heights not thought imaginable. But first comes the bitlicense, then the exchange, and of course the insiders must accumulate!

[lay785]

I was wondering what that massive 40k dump was. barely affected the price though... Guess insiders are accumulating without causing much slippage.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Everybody is forgetting about the next halving, this time next year.
If we can get the Winkle ETF off the ground in the next 6 months or so & attract lots of new investors which will in turn create more mainstream adoption then the next halving we could push up towards 1000 USD again.
The future is bright people, the future is bitcoin.
GBTC is only the beginning.

[zby]

Everybody is forgetting about the next halving, this time next year.
If we can get the Winkle ETF off the ground in the next 6 months or so & attract lots of new investors which will in turn create more mainstream adoption then the next halving we could push up towards 1000 USD again.
The future is bright people, the future is bitcoin.
GBTC is only the beginning.

I kind of agree that it will attract new investors - but on a downtrend this will be a slow process, this slowness will disappoint people and we'll see some more dumps.

One year is a long time - enough to revisit double digits in the meantime.

[minerpumpkin]

My theory:  GBTC caused a small rally on rumors (or/and by insiders) - but when it proved to be completely irrelevant (at least for now) the rally is being reversed by huge dumps.
And COIN can have a similar effect - sure it will not have exactly the same supply problem as GBTC - but I don't think it'll have too much demand unless it is started after we have a rally already. So if it is really started this month or next - then it will only accelerate the downtrend, because people will lose hope.

Well, I don't think people really anticipated GBTC to trade many shares, actually. I think the volume was expected, and the price is even higher than expected. I mean, we know that there aren't that many shares in GBTC to begin with, and the amount of people willing to sell at todays' prices is even lower than that!

[minerpumpkin]

Everybody is forgetting about the next halving, this time next year.
If we can get the Winkle ETF off the ground in the next 6 months or so & attract lots of new investors which will in turn create more mainstream adoption then the next halving we could push up towards 1000 USD again.
The future is bright people, the future is bitcoin.
GBTC is only the beginning.

The next halving is expected to happen in August next year. Of course it depends on how much the network hash rate goes up, we may see it in July or even June. But if the price goes down significantly from here, we may have to wait for September or October. Which could also be good, because the volume usually goes up at that time.

[lay785]

Everybody is forgetting about the next halving, this time next year.
If we can get the Winkle ETF off the ground in the next 6 months or so & attract lots of new investors which will in turn create more mainstream adoption then the next halving we could push up towards 1000 USD again.
The future is bright people, the future is bitcoin.
GBTC is only the beginning.

I kind of agree that it will attract new investors - but on a downtrend this will be a slow process, this slowness will disappoint people and we'll see some more dumps.

One year is a long time - enough to revisit double digits in the meantime.

a lower price may have the effect of making people feel like they have a second chance to become an "early adopter" and a chance to hop on board the train before it takes off.

New investors will be more motivated to buy larger amounts based on the low price than if BTC was already perceived as being at its peak.

[minerpumpkin]

My theory:  GBTC caused a small rally on rumors (or/and by insiders) - but when it proved to be completely irrelevant (at least for now) the rally is being reversed by huge dumps.
And COIN can have a similar effect - sure it will not have exactly the same supply problem as GBTC - but I don't think it'll have too much demand unless it is started after we have a rally already. So if it is really started this month or next - then it will only accelerate the downtrend, because people will lose hope.

GBTC gives wall street a sniff. But COIN will suck btc out of the market and provide significant on exchange demand if it is only slightly popular. It will allow a burgeoning bubble to go parabolic to heights not thought imaginable. But first comes the bitlicense, then the exchange, and of course the insiders must accumulate!

Well, I don't know if it will cause an instantaneous bubble... I know you are exaggerating most likely... But in principle this is correct. There will be a profound difference between COIN and GBTC. GBTC merely trades existing BIT shares of people who bought them a long time ago (at higher prices). COIN, on the other hand, will provide an easy vehicle for people interested in Bitcoin, to buy them without having to care about all our crazy amateur exchanges.