I will try to put up my first theory:
- Marc Karpeles opens a US Dwolla account in the name of his company Mutum Sigillum, LLC./MtGox to help his long time friend Ross laundering the Bitcoins that were made with SilkRoad.
- HSI confiscates this Dwolla account with at least 2.9 Mio USD (maybe a lot more)
- Marc K. agrees in a deal with DEA to help to take down his friend Ross
09/05/2013 - US Secret Service Agent BRIDGES serves as the affiant on a multi-million dollar seizure warrant for Mt. Gox and its owner's bank accounts.
("multi-million dollar seizure" does not sound like this was 2.9 Mio. Maybe it was part of the deal to give him back some part of the "multi-million seizure")
14/05/2013 - The Department of Homeland Security and U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland issued a Seizure Warrant for the funds associated with a Dwolla account belonging to Mt.Gox
29/05/2013 - Chicago HSI Agent Jared Der-Yeghiayan, sought a search warrant for Karpeles’s e-mail account, swearing in a draft affidavit that he suspected Karpeles of being the Dread Pirate Roberts.
- Marc K. tells Ross/DPR, that the DEA (instead of the HSI) has confiscated the money. Dunno what the goal was. Maybe bringing Ross into making errors. He has been stressed by the made up murder story and the DDOS attacks etc, so he was likely to make errors in short term.
- Ross writes in his journal that 2 Mio were stolen from his account on MtGox from the DEA
29/05/2013 - $2M was stolen from my mtgox account by DEA.
- short time later DEA has a clear record, where Ross was logging in as DPR.
03/06/2013 - "Someone" logged into a server used to administer the Silk Road website from an Internet Cafe located near Ulbricht's residence.
It is possible that Marc K. gave all the infos about what he knew from Ross to agent Jared Der-Yeghiayan and he just had to made up the story how he found Ross' GMX mail adress and the "altoid" posts etc.
So officially Marc was later sued for unlicensed money business and behind closed doors he was probably acting as the main informant to take down Ross Ulbricht/Silk Road. Marc Karpeles played the main role in Silk Road as a money launderer and was flipped by the DEA in fear of losing his business, which he lost later anyway.