$GBTC Speculation, Information, and Cogitation

[elux]

If in fact this one will be an epic thread starting a new era/trend then there should be a price for admission. ~2900 volume so far today (...)

GBTC Volume now 4905 5905

[minerpumpkin]

If in fact this one will be an epic thread starting a new era/trend then there should be a price for admission. ~2900 volume so far today at respectable prices and it's just about lunch time on Wall St. Now, up over $241.

Could very well be. If ETFs really are the way to go, I expect COIN to have an even bigger impact (obviously) but this could very well be the starting point. History in the making. There, I said it!

[Chef Ramsay]

If in fact this one will be an epic thread starting a new era/trend then there should be a price for admission. ~2900 volume so far today (...)

GBTC Volume now 4905 5905

Should've opened up the quote page rather than just add up the captioned showing I guess. Wow, things really are heating up quite well.

[Keyser Soze]

Volume is really picking up today. Should be interesting to see how it plays out as more shares are moved into a tradeable system.

[HarmonLi]

Shucks, I think I only made it to page 2 of another thread that will go down into history I think I have to watch out for the COIN observer thread once it goes live

[8up]

Shucks, I think I only made it to page 2 of another thread that will go down into history I think I have to watch out for the COIN observer thread once it goes live

The first page was more or less "reserved" anyway.

[LiteBit]

From company information:

Each BIT share represented ownership of 0.1 bitcoins initially. The trust will not generate any income and regularly sells/distributes bitcoins to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of bitcoin represented by each share gradually declines over time.

BTC/USD = $243
BIT/USD = $530

Nice markup! They say it's easier to move money once it's in the system. I'm curious if that's the case and people don't care the 110% premium or they are just un-informed investors?

[cryptoboy.architect]

From company information:

Each BIT share represented ownership of 0.1 bitcoins initially. The trust will not generate any income and regularly sells/distributes bitcoins to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of bitcoin represented by each share gradually declines over time.

BTC/USD = $243
BIT/USD = $530

Nice markup! They say it's easier to move money once it's in the system. I'm curious if that's the case and people don't care the 110% premium or they are just un-informed investors?

I can give you a use case - in retirement accounts most people can only buy official stocks. So if you expect BTC to go to $50,000, you don't care if you get it at $250 or $500, if your retirement account is such that profits are not taxed, you are still better off paying double in the long run.

[derpinheimer]

Anyone got a better chart for gbtc? Loving the volume but overbook is almost unchanged

[LiteBit]

Anyone got a better chart for gbtc? Loving the volume but overbook is almost unchanged

OP could add this: https://www.google.com/finance?q=gbtc&ei=PORMVbnmOYSTswfizYCQBQ

[Feri22]

Nice thread...i hope the ETFs will start a new era of BTC

[Chainsaw]

I think Maxim realized the current market conditions and acted accordingly.
With their big buy present, 1 of 3 scenarios would play out:
-An initial fill from a holder, setting a confident floor to the price. (This failed to materialize.)
-A counteroffer in the form of a matching-size bid on the Ask side, creating price tension for the market to find the middle.
-A second+ Bid creating additional market pressure upwards. (This failed to materialize.)

Until any occurred, the order was having an effect.
With where we stood after the 3 days of price action, my sentiment became:
-I will only buy above Maxim.

I believe a large part of their initial bid was to facilitiate price discovery. In the long run, this is good for Bitcoin.

Once volume was bootstrapped, pulling the bid was the right call.
They do not need to take on the burden of being the first big bidder.
The market can move to its seeming true price, and THEN they can re-post at an appropriate price.
(Or they could shift strategies and start accumulating, but I don't think this is as likely.)

Given their pull, and the subsequent market action, I am reading it as follows:
-The market is gaining confidence that by selling today, they will not be missing out on $100/share prices tomorrow. Willingness to sell is increasing.
I am seeing the trading range of 40 to 55 as likely (75%, 90% chance IMHO we end up within 35 to 55) to be where we settle into after our first wave of higher volume, followed by lower volume. (This volume is starting to increase, starting today 5/8/15.)

Yesterday I had bids at $36.69.
I'll probably be moving that to a half-buy at just-above $40 levels for today, and reserving the second half until equilibrium seems to be reached, or bitcoin-market rally mode is confirmed.

[Chainsaw]

Given the volume, I think Maxim did what I had pegged as the least likely scenario - changed strategies.
Betcha they just keep relisting 100 BUY at 50, but did not want to communicate the 50K ask and just get outbid while serving as the floor.

If this proves to be correct, Maxim just raised the proverbial floor.
This would be in my view the best case, the one that left those price ranges estimates at 90%. There was a chance of utter crash or floor increase.

Watching with great interest.

If and when other bidders 'get wise' to this action, the same process will repeat, with little bids front-running...and then we could have ourselves a _real_ rally and initial price peak.
Gonna have to think about whether I want to shift buy strategies based on all this or just miss out and wait...

[chriswen]

That's an interesting analysis.  Yeah they did help facilitate price discovery.  And with the currently volume, 10000 which is quite high they're still not close to getting filled.  SO they'll have to wait a bit,

[Alley]

Hopefully were seeing the start of investors that can buy btc directly from exchanges start to do so.  And btc price will slowly rise to bit prices.

[Chainsaw]

If and when other bidders 'get wise' to this action, the same process will repeat, with little bids front-running...and then we could have ourselves a _real_ rally and initial price peak.
Gonna have to think about whether I want to shift buy strategies based on all this or just miss out and wait...

That was fast.
By the time I posted and looked at the market, NITE and CDEL put up 815 shares at 50.01.

I grabbed a few again at 53 (and so did someone else to a larger degree, looking at the trade data.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229

I expect us to touch at least 59 again today. After that, lots of possibilities.

But seeing this Maxim strategic shift, and subsequent market reaction, on significantly increased volume in the form of new BIT sellers - I am liking it!

[Biodom]

From company information:

Each BIT share represented ownership of 0.1 bitcoins initially. The trust will not generate any income and regularly sells/distributes bitcoins to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of bitcoin represented by each share gradually declines over time.

BTC/USD = $243
BIT/USD = $530

Nice markup! They say it's easier to move money once it's in the system. I'm curious if that's the case and people don't care the 110% premium or they are just un-informed investors?

I can give you a use case - in retirement accounts most people can only buy official stocks. So if you expect BTC to go to $50,000, you don't care if you get it at $250 or $500, if your retirement account is such that profits are not taxed, you are still better off paying double in the long run.

this is not so.
$500 buys you 2.03BTC, and same $$ buy 10 GBTC= ~1BTC.
You to have tax rates in excess of 50% in order to make buying GBTC justified mathematically.
However, two prices seem to move to converge. When GBTC was $65 and bitcoin 234, it made more sense to sell GBTC and buy bitcoin.
I think that GBTC and bitcoin prices will converge at some point.

[inca]

From company information:

Each BIT share represented ownership of 0.1 bitcoins initially. The trust will not generate any income and regularly sells/distributes bitcoins to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of bitcoin represented by each share gradually declines over time.

BTC/USD = $243
BIT/USD = $530

Nice markup! They say it's easier to move money once it's in the system. I'm curious if that's the case and people don't care the 110% premium or they are just un-informed investors?

I can give you a use case - in retirement accounts most people can only buy official stocks. So if you expect BTC to go to $50,000, you don't care if you get it at $250 or $500, if your retirement account is such that profits are not taxed, you are still better off paying double in the long run.

this is not so.
$500 buys you 2.03BTC, and same $$ buy 10 GBTC= ~1BTC.
You to have tax rates in excess of 50% in order to make buying GBTC justified mathematically.
However, two prices seem to move to converge. When GBTC was $65 and bitcoin 234, it made more sense to sell GBTC and buy bitcoin.
I think that GBTC and bitcoin prices will converge at some point.

The question is whether bitcoin moves upwards rapidly towards GBTC (not that likely IMO) or whether they both converge which coincides with bitcoin breaking out of its downtrend.

[Biodom]

From company information:

Each BIT share represented ownership of 0.1 bitcoins initially. The trust will not generate any income and regularly sells/distributes bitcoins to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of bitcoin represented by each share gradually declines over time.

BTC/USD = $243
BIT/USD = $530

Nice markup! They say it's easier to move money once it's in the system. I'm curious if that's the case and people don't care the 110% premium or they are just un-informed investors?

I can give you a use case - in retirement accounts most people can only buy official stocks. So if you expect BTC to go to $50,000, you don't care if you get it at $250 or $500, if your retirement account is such that profits are not taxed, you are still better off paying double in the long run.

this is not so.
$500 buys you 2.03BTC, and same $$ buy 10 GBTC= ~1BTC.
You to have tax rates in excess of 50% in order to make buying GBTC justified mathematically.
However, two prices seem to move to converge. When GBTC was $65 and bitcoin 234, it made more sense to sell GBTC and buy bitcoin.
I think that GBTC and bitcoin prices will converge at some point.

The question is whether bitcoin moves upwards rapidly towards GBTC (not that likely IMO) or whether they both converge which coincides with bitcoin breaking out of its downtrend.

from my point of view, they will converge at $350-400 and then move pretty much together.

[LiteBit]

From company information:

Each BIT share represented ownership of 0.1 bitcoins initially. The trust will not generate any income and regularly sells/distributes bitcoins to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of bitcoin represented by each share gradually declines over time.

BTC/USD = $243
BIT/USD = $530

Nice markup! They say it's easier to move money once it's in the system. I'm curious if that's the case and people don't care the 110% premium or they are just un-informed investors?

I can give you a use case - in retirement accounts most people can only buy official stocks. So if you expect BTC to go to $50,000, you don't care if you get it at $250 or $500, if your retirement account is such that profits are not taxed, you are still better off paying double in the long run.

this is not so.
$500 buys you 2.03BTC, and same $$ buy 10 GBTC= ~1BTC.
You to have tax rates in excess of 50% in order to make buying GBTC justified mathematically.
However, two prices seem to move to converge. When GBTC was $65 and bitcoin 234, it made more sense to sell GBTC and buy bitcoin.
I think that GBTC and bitcoin prices will converge at some point.

We're saying the same thing, just coming at it logically from 2 different angles.
In my example and your example the numbers line up and the GBTC purchasers are paying a +100% markup at this time.
I agree they'll line up better down the road as well.