$GBTC Speculation, Information, and Cogitation

[Chainsaw]

Courtesy of 'bad trader' from another thread:

The GBTC market closed at 50 dollars per share with volume of 2756 shares (less than 275 bitcoins).



The volume was lower than Thursday's 2844. It remains to be seen if Friday's high volume was an anomaly.

[phoenix1]

You might want to tag this page ... best so far for charts and NAV of GBTC 

https://tradeblock.com/markets/igsc/xbt-usd/1h/

[Chainsaw]

Thanks phoenix1! I updated the intro post to include it.

Sellers sold into the $49 on volume today. They blinked.  You give 'em an inch...

I anticipate MAXM to post a Bid below $49 tomorrow. My guesses:

a) 30% - post a 100 share Bid offer at $47 or $48.
b) 25% - post a >1000 share Bid offer at $45
c) 25% - post a >1000 share Bid offer at $35
d) 20% - hold the line at $49.

Choosing a) or d) if they'd like to accumulate while walking the market down slowly and/or hold the line, and b) or c) if they'd like to accelerate the price decrease before making the bulk of their purchase.

If this plays out, it will of course be how the sellers respond that will drive the outcome.

Good to see volume hold up today, it was looking thin at the start of the day.

[Alley]

I'm legitimately surprised exchange prices arnt rising with these steady gbtc prices.

[Cconvert2G36]

I'm legitimately surprised exchange prices arnt rising with these steady gbtc prices.

Don't be so surprised. Clue: 228.6 pseudo-BTC total volume for today.

[bad trader]

The GBTC market closed at 49 dollars per share with volume of 2286 shares (less than 225 bitcoins).

[kingama]

I'm legitimately surprised exchange prices arnt rising with these steady gbtc prices.

Don't be so surprised. Clue: 228.6 pseudo-BTC total volume for today.

Though liquidity is low, we haven't had any sort of interesting price move in BTC since it launched. A small rise, yes, but we'll probably only gain new information about how well connected GBTC is to BTC with something like a 5-10% price move.

[Fabrizio89]

Wow, it's already dead. Nice try sillbert and friends, washing trades.

[Chainsaw]

This low volume event could end up being either good or bad for the market.
So long as a staredown occurs, Sellers are demonstrating they have no desire to sell their shares for less than at least.

Grayscale publicized the link to the page showing the asset-backed value per share, putting it around $23.xx.

If >=1 big seller blinks and sells down the price, we will get an increase in volume, but at lower price.

IMHO, the more bullish scenario for share price would require us to remain in this stalemate. The bullish catalyst to break out would be seeing bitcoin market prices increasing. If that plays out, then I could see increasing price on increasing volume.

Honestly, I am hoping the price goes down. It seems like it would be healthier.
Unfortunately, I think there are an awful lot of people eager to buy - people holding retirement money and waiting for 1+ years, so I'm not sure how low we will get.

Personally, I'm staying out until we drop to closer to the $35 level. Maybe it'll never fill.

[bad trader]

The GBTC market closed at 49 dollars per share with volume of 327 shares (less than 32.1 bitcoins).



It looks like OTCMarkets lied to me. GBTC officially closed at 49.95 yesterday, not at 49.00. Today it should be 49.00, though.

There were not many trades:

[JorgeStolfi]

I'm legitimately surprised exchange prices arnt rising with these steady gbtc prices.

Don t forget that the average BIT share was bought for ~40--50 USD.  I would think that 24 $/share is way too low for those who have those shares, while 49 $/share is way too high for those who are thinking of investing in bitcoin through BIT.

[JorgeStolfi]

It looks like OCTMarkets lied to me. GBTC officially closed at 49.95 yesterday, not at 49.00. Today it should be 49.00, though.

According to other posters, the daily ranges shown in the OTCQX quote page ignore any trades smaller than 100 shares.  Today there was only one trade above the threshold: 175 shares at 49.00 $/share.  There were however other smaller trades at 49.95 and 50.00 $/share.

[bad trader]

According to other posters, the daily ranges shown in the OTCQX quote page ignore any trades smaller than 100 shares.  Today there was only one trade above the threshold: 175 shares at 49.00 $/share.  There were however other smaller trades at 49.95 and 50.00 $/share.

I know. I think I was the other poster.

Anyway, after the market closed they said the price was 49.00, although the sell was under 100 shares and shouldn't have counted. Then the next day they apparently decided it indeed didn't count.

[JorgeStolfi]

Anyway, after the market closed they said the price was 49.00, although the sell was under 100 shares and shouldn't have counted. Then the next day they apparently decided it indeed didn't count.

But the listing shows a 174 share trade at 49.00.  Why do you say that it should not have counted?

[bad trader]

Anyway, after the market closed they said the price was 49.00, although the sell was under 100 shares and shouldn't have counted. Then the next day they apparently decided it indeed didn't count.

But the listing shows a 174 share trade at 49.00.  Why do you say that it should not have counted?

I was talking about the day before that.

The GBTC market closed at 49 dollars per share with volume of 2286 shares (less than 225 bitcoins).

[Sitarow]

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=GBTC&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes


Time and Sales for Bitcoin Investment Trust May 14, 2015
Symbol:   (GBTC)
Time      Price   Volume   Market
15:59:27      45.00   500   OTO
15:57:21      44.00   300   OTO
15:48:16      44.00   100   OTO
15:44:05      45.00   500   OTO
15:43:04      44.00   81   OTO
15:42:09      45.00   500   OTO
15:29:51      44.00   100   OTO
15:15:49      44.90   1   OTO
14:46:54      44.50   100   OTO
14:35:45      44.50   50   OTO
14:35:12      44.50   1   OTO
14:28:31      45.00   100   OTO
14:08:52      46.00   769   OTO
14:07:36      47.00   7   OTO
13:57:29      46.00   7   OTO
13:17:33      46.00   245   OTO
13:17:27      46.00   180   OTO
13:17:23      46.00   200   OTO
13:16:46      48.00   70   OTO
13:16:31      48.50   10   OTO
13:16:19      48.00   33   OTO
13:16:04      48.50   100   OTO
13:15:54      48.95   3000   OTO
13:15:26      48.55   500   OTO
13:14:25      48.50   600   OTO
13:14:17      48.55   500   OTO
13:13:26      48.50   500   OTO
13:12:35      48.50   400   OTO
13:10:09      49.00   500   OTO
13:07:52      48.55   743   OTO
13:07:15      48.50   300   OTO
13:06:43      48.50   300   OTO
13:06:33      48.55   1000   OTO
13:06:09      48.50   300   OTO
13:05:28      48.50   300   OTO
13:04:09      48.50   400   OTO
13:03:10      48.50   300   OTO
12:16:47      48.75   100   OTO
12:06:36      48.62   997   OTO
12:06:15      48.75   1500   OTO
12:05:56      48.50   400   OTO
12:04:17      49.00   0   OTO <-------?
12:04:01      48.75   500   OTO
12:03:00      48.75   400   OTO
12:02:18      48.90   1200   OTO
12:01:55      48.75   300   OTO
12:01:05      48.75   300   OTO
11:58:26      48.75   100   OTO
11:57:41      49.00   100   OTO
11:57:15      49.00   131   OTO
11:56:52      49.00   100   OTO
11:56:40      49.00   100   OTO
10:18:28      49.90   20   OTO
10:18:26      49.95   49   OTO
05/13      49.00   38   OTO
05/13      49.95   38   OTO

[elux]

Biggest volume yet:

[bad trader]

The GBTC market closed at 45 dollars per share with volume of 19894 shares (less than 1950 bitcoins).



The previous volume record of 14807 on Friday was broken.

[neurotypical]

Biggest volume yet:

We surpassed Maxim Magazine. If Bitcoin is more important than hot girls naked, you know moon is guaranteed.

[pleaseexplain]

We surpassed Maxim Magazine. If Bitcoin is more important than hot girls naked, you know moon is guaranteed.
[/quote]

Bitcoin, fiat and everything else is not, and never will be, more important than hot girls naked. You need a cup of tea and then take a nap and when you wake up you will be back in the real world.