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Risks
If an attacker spammed many high-fee tx's he could alter the block size limit. I believe this is unlikely do to the limited incentive and the high fee cost.
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But what if there is NO cost, and a significant incentive?
Specifically, a large mining farm with very high internet bandwidth can pad every block that they mine with transactions paying a high fee until the block is completely full. This padding will increase the SMA with high fee transactions, but it won't cost the mining farm anything since they'd be paying those fees to themselves. (There's the zero cost).
By significantly increasing the block size over time, the mining farm can drive out smaller miners that have slower internet connections and less resources available. Less miners means they have a larger percentage of the total mining hashpower, which means they solve more blocks over time, which increases their profits. (There's the significant incentive).
Assuming such a strategy, could it be significantly weakened by only deriving the limit from block fees within 1 standard deviation from the mean? So a miner padding blocks with large fees to himself might find all, or nearly all, of his blocks unused for the calculation? Unless, of course the miner is somewhere near 50%, but such behavior would be spotted a long way off, and if a pool, would soon be hit by defections.