Reminder to smug bears: Remember 2012

[necrita]

Gentle reminder to the bears.
This period of low volatility bears a striking resemblance to 2012.  We may be in for a long torturous period of stability and calm.

Pay attention to the old timers.

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[8up]

We will have to get to "uncertainty-terrain" at $200 to 240 first.

Prepare yourself for a slow and boring uptrend like in 2012.

Later on, we will remember the current phase (price fluctuation between $200 and $700 later this year) as the long lasting stability phase of 2015 and 2016.

[Brewins]

Gentle reminder to the bears.
This period of low volatility bears a striking resemblance to 2012.  We may be in for a long torturous period of stability and calm.

Pay attention to the old timers.

then in 2016 we will go from 230 to 4600, and then to 20k+?

I really doubt

[bounst]

2012? even the bear, it's growing bigger

[db]

Autumn 2012 felt the same as now. The infrastructure developed rapidly, adoption increased, the good news just kept flooding in and the price did not react at all. That was also after a long and terrible decline after the crazy 2011 bubble. Of course nobody knows what will happen but I would not be surprised by something similar to spring 2013. Interestingly, a widely held belief around here in 2010 was that if this thing takes off there will be bubbles, several of them.

[gentlemand]

Haven't the last 18 or so months taught us that 'historical' market behaviour is utter bilge when looking to the future?

There are still too many things to go right and wrong to have the slightest idea where it's headed in the reasonable short term.

[knight22]

I too expect the price to be flat and boring for the next couple of months. After that we'll be ready for the next bubble.

[bassclef]

Haven't the last 18 or so months taught us that 'historical' market behaviour is utter bilge when looking to the future?

On the contrary, historical behavior sets up the market for its next move. You just have to know what to look for and when to look for it.

A huge swing up in price distributes the stock to eager buyers, floods the market and sends the price down once said buyers run out. Then you get a bear market. Conversely a downswing sets up a bull market due to various informed interests buying at the bottom without moving the price up. And so the pendulum of supply and demand swings back and forth through daily, monthly and yearly cycles.

There are hundreds of reasons one can think up to bring these cycles into question, putting their own egos, experiences or theories up against the time-tested forces of supply and demand. Or one can concede that these forces influence the market in much broader ways than do fallible human theories, which often erroneously separate market activity from external events (fundamental versus technical analysis), and quietly track these forces to great profit along with others who have come to the same conclusion.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Let the bears & trolls laugh & joke at us.
We'll see who's laughing in 5 years or so, make sure you hodl guys & we can laugh at them with their 0-2 bitcoin or whatever they'll have left after selling everything now.
I'll be here when the price surges in a few years, will you?

[gentlemand]

On the contrary, historical behavior sets up the market for its next move. You just have to know what to look for and when to look for it.

A huge swing up in price distributes the stock to eager buyers, floods the market and sends the price down once said buyers run out. Then you get a bear market. Conversely a downswing sets up a bull market due to various informed interests buying at the bottom without moving the price up. And so the pendulum of supply and demand swings back and forth through daily, monthly and yearly cycles.

There are hundreds of reasons one can think up to bring these cycles into question, putting their own egos, experiences or theories up against the time-tested forces of supply and demand. Or one can concede that these forces influence the market in much broader ways than do fallible human theories, which often erroneously separate market activity from external events (fundamental versus technical analysis), and quietly track these forces to great profit along with others who have come to the same conclusion.

I agree with all of that. I was referring more to the 'it never goes below the previous all time high' sentiment and the bizarro 234 day price peak cycle that gripped a few people for a while.

This was all based off a teensy market on what have turned out to be fictional exchanges. If it was a few hundred years old then such ideas would have some traction but it's still being made up as it goes along.

[randy8777]

comparing bitcoin in 2012 to how it is now isn't really fair. bitcoin now has a far higher market cap while in 2012 with what is considered a low amount now, you could give bitcoin a massive pump back in the days.

[mrhelpful]

Then in 2025 - bitcoin becomes the universal reserve currency, since all these guys noticed, hey we cant print anymore paper.

Exchanging 4,000 paper for a burger. No, but really though I try not to get tied up too much with the whole bear and bullish trends. Just focus on what you need to do to make more btc. 

[techgeek]

im assume the closer we get to the point we cant mine anymore, which it is already now its not for profit.

since most cant keep up with the cost of it, just know the coin will always used for money laundering so im always selling it.

[BlackSpidy]

Hm... I'm gonna have to buy $10 of bitcoin tomorrow.

[arvis]

I don't see anything happening till the next block reward halving.
I am holding on to my coins until then. 

[chriswen]

I'd like to point you to Azop's stability charts.

He usually posts on reddit but he's been busy the last few days so the last chart is three days old.

http://imgur.com/a/6muHc

As you can see he has a statistic called weighted stability.

We had peak stability in June 2012 and December 2012.  Weighted stability at a value of 100-120.

And after stability we lead to big moves and that resulted in two big up movements.

But you also have to look at the other times we have had high stability. We've been in the 60's in the past year and those resulted in big moves down.

What I'm sayign is that there is no guarantee that the breakout will be to the upside.  But if it does break to the upside we will have a nice bull run.

It also shows how high weighted stability has peaked.  Currently we were at 55 weighted stability 3 days ago.  In the past year we've had movements after reaching a weighted stability of 60.

How high do you think stability will peak?  Will we have to wait till we reach 100 weighted stability?  Who knows.  I'm excited for the BBand breakout as currently this is really hard to trade.

[Dalmar]

In 2012 the price was above the 200 SMA for most of the year.

The 2015 price action is far more bearish than what we saw in 2012. Not a single day above the 200 SMA so far this year.

[spazzdla]

The fact it's June 2016 and BTC prices is above $200.....

It was holding aove $2 before.......

Bitcoin isn't even a fraction of a % of silvers total market cap.

If you don't think BTC can hit $10k you believe it's going to zero.  You might not think you believe it's going to zero but there will be no middle ground.  By 2025 BTC will be dead or a massive market cap.


Most housing prices are 10-20x the average income of most people.

[arvis]

In 2012 the price was above the 200 SMA for most of the year.

The 2015 price action is far more bearish than what we saw in 2012. Not a single day above the 200 SMA so far this year.

So when the bull run happens, it will be all the more fiercer. 

[spazzdla]

The fact it's June 2016 and BTC BTCeanie BTCabies prices is above $200.....

It was holding aove $2 before.......

Bitcoin BTCeanie isn't even a fraction of a % of silvers total market cap.

If you don't think BTC BTCeanie BTCabies can hit $10k you believe it's going to zero.  You might not think you believe it's going to zero but there will be no middle ground.  By 2025 BTC BTCeanie BTCabies will be dead or a massive market cap.


Most housing prices are 10-20x the average income of most people.

FTFY.  The BTCeanie BTCabies in my portfolio have consistently outperformed my [unfortunate] BTC investment over the past year and a half.
And not by a slim margin, I must add

All aboard the BTCeanie train, friends! Don't get left behind with the unvisionary mundanes.

SUPPPPPPPPPPPP Fallin, mad u couldn't please the overloards?