[AUR] Auroracoin market observer

[molecular]

currently thinking "buy the rumor sell the news" could be a good approach.

I'm selling a bit on every rise to dampen the hype. I agree with the team that the last thing the coin needs is a pump & dump.

If the market wants it, we wont be able to stop it though... not me at least.

Prediction: I think we'll see 100k before may 1st

Do you have a converter to know how much is 100K in Dollars?

0.001 btc * 433 usd/btc  = 0.433 usd

[leigh2k14]

I think 100K is doable by may 1st.


We hit 90K last night.

[soltantgris]

The best way to improve AUR price is to actually help to reach its goal - adoption in iceland.  If we reach our goal and get massive use in iceland, the actual price will be a joke from the past, in my opinion ''a pizza for 10 000 bitcoin''_like.  Bitcoin was once 0.45$ too.  And bitcoin adoption is almost inexistant worldwide - still its value  is actually 430$.  Auroracoin don't have to reach the world.  Just have to get into 330 000 hands in iceland.  Help the project, the price will follow.  We need a market cap WAY bigger to support a decent % of domestic icelandic trades.

[rocanonz]

We must never forget that Auroracoin project is not only about money, it's also about ethics. And this is the Auraráð foundation role to defend with the help of M1 fund. ”It  involves systematizing, defending, and recommending concepts of right and wrong conduct.”

The board of Auraráð foundation is true to his heart and knowledgeable. Because of this, I'm confident that Auroracoin project will succeed on the field of value and ethics and become a subject of inspiration for the word.

[soltantgris]

Kind words, and it is exactly how I see auroracoin and my peers within the team. Never been with such idealist people, and as I said many time, I feel honored to be part of such group. And the best part is if we reach our noble goal, both the ethic and the financial side will be positive.

[soltantgris]

Good morning guys !

Barely discussed, I wonder how bitcoin halving will influence its price - and how this will impact AUR price.  Timing is one more time interesting, and I wonder how a bitcoin rally would impact every other coins.  Not that AUR need BTC to exist (no BTC pair in iceland) - but still a factor.

[rocanonz]

Good morning guys !

Barely discussed, I wonder how bitcoin halving will influence its price - and how this will impact AUR price.  Timing is one more time interesting, and I wonder how a bitcoin rally would impact every other coins.  Not that AUR need BTC to exist (no BTC pair in iceland) - but still a factor.

True price discovery will come from within Iceland. A price evolution like the above one it's possible.
Growth to 0,002BTC followed by a longer consolidation.
I have no reason to belive this graph as true or false. Just an intuition.

[molecular]

Good morning guys !

Barely discussed, I wonder how bitcoin halving will influence its price - and how this will impact AUR price.  Timing is one more time interesting, and I wonder how a bitcoin rally would impact every other coins.  Not that AUR need BTC to exist (no BTC pair in iceland) - but still a factor.

True price discovery will come from within Iceland. A price evolution like the above one it's possible.
Growth to 0,002BTC followed by a longer consolidation.
I have no reason to belive this graph as true or false. Just an intuition.

interesting intution. You probably can't tell what it's based on, can you? Judging from the graph one could think that maybe you've been looking at "old restistances/support"?

Here's another chart of the old times. Not logarithmic.



However, there's loads of caveats regarding looking at this very old data for hints:

• should we look at Auroracoin in terms of BTC or FIAT?
• That history is really, really old. Buyers/sellers from back then probably have low impact nowadays. There weren't many coins at at (the first airdrop was only 38.3 AUR/person and the coin had just started, with no premine (supposedly) being sold)
• Note that the lowest point on that graph on the right is 0.009 BTC/AUR. That's crazy. We have multiple magnitudes more AUR available today

I would rather not look at this very old history.

About consolidation around 0.002: yes, that's possible, but I think 0.001 or 0.003 are more likely for having a break, though (intuition). It can only be a break, too: for a long-term valuation it doesn't make much sense (that's either too low or too high)

[soltantgris]

Price speculation using graphs is, in this case, for me, irrelevant.  I mean, there is way to many external factors to get any decent evaluation the market.  How would the price be influenced by these factors, positive or negative ?  I mean, a couple of weeks ago, AUR was traded around 25k sato.  And few days ago, it ''dropped'' to 65k !  Market adjust itself pretty fast to new reality.  There is not much difference between 0.001 and 0.01 or 0.1 in a so ''thin and somewhat new'' market.

Question, looking back a while back, when bitcoin was barely traded, and was worth let's say 10 cents.  How accurate would have been a technical analysis back then ?

That being said, I enjoy a lot reading such analysis !  And I see that some are spot on, from time to time - so let's see how it goes here.

[208]

Back in the old bitcoin days, I loved this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI

Maybe this is a bit more appropriate for Iceland;)

[rocanonz]

„You probably can't tell what it's based on, can you?” - Of course I can speculate on few assumptions beyond the irrelevant "old restistances/support".
1) I consider the 1$/AUR a psychological barrier.
2) Summer is coming and as we all know it's dead time for doing business. Because of this I'm expecting a lower adoption pace.
3) First to come into the Icelandic exchange will be “connoisseurs” and I'm expecting them to start AUR accumulation without pushing up the price too much.
And again these are just speculations and must be treated as such

[Porte]

„You probably can't tell what it's based on, can you?” - Of course I can speculate on few assumptions beyond the irrelevant "old restistances/support".
1) I consider the 1$/AUR a psychological barrier.
2) Summer is coming and as we all know it's dead time for doing business. Because of this I'm expecting a lower adoption pace.
3) First to come into the Icelandic exchange will be “connoisseurs” and I'm expecting them to start AUR accumulation without pushing up the price too much.
And again these are just speculations and must be treated as such

I don't thinks nobody knows what will happen, as in crypto anything could happen. It could be  $1 tomorrow as it can be $0.1 as it could be $10. We don't know. The value of a coin is not pure science. Its very volatile.

[Bimmerhead]

Would be great if one of you technical analyst gurus would start an Auroracoin thread at forexfactory.com

Might bring in some new people who haven't encountered Auroracoin before.

[molecular]

(cross-posting from main thread because I got lead to the topic of price...)

So, you have to live in icland for 7 years and right after that you can start to trade on isx.is!)

You can also just come here in 1-2 years and have money to spend! How about paying for your hotel, flight, and all restaurants in 2 years with Auroracoin.

I think that's the way to go.

It'll be very interesting to see how (if, to what extent) arbitrage will be done. I believe there are probably be mechanisms to circumvent the capital controls and if there's money to be made, it will be done. Question is how high will the difference be... one should basically be able to see the cost imposed by capital controls (plus normal fees, of course)...

hmm. https://beta.isx.is/ redirects to https://isx.is/. Is the exchange live?

Just checked price. It's around 38 ISK/AUR = 0.31 USD/AUR = 0.00067 BTC/AUR

So the price on the icelandic exchange is 40% above the bittrex price.

so I'm guessing it's rather expensive to sell those ISK for EUR/USD/BTC? Or maybe it's just not enough volume yet to justify ($1000 24h volume on isx)...

Here's a good link posted in the other thread that shows volumes and price on different exchanges: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/auroracoin/#markets

[god.aur]

The bare-minimum price difference between AUR bought with ISK and AUR bought with ISK->USD->BTC is around 8%. This is simply the sum total of the high (5-%) credit card transfer fees, disadvantageous BTC sell offers on the cc-enabled exchanges (2+%) and the difference between the Icelandic banks' and VISA Iceland's ISK/USD exchange rate (1%).

Given all the hassle, this bare-mininum 8% premium is probably more like 15% or more. Indeed, the Icelandic market has sustained a +30% price pretty steadily over this initial week of business at ISX – as is indeed the case right now when AUR is at 35 ISK on ISX, and at the same time at 480b on Bittrex, which is exactly 30%.

However, the volume on ISX after its opening on 3 May has been as high or higher than on Bittrex, which begs the question of who drives whom.

Anyway, arbitrage ought to equalise the two to within around 15% over time, or until the capital controls in Iceland are lifted, at which time the difference should be within 1% (i.e. the difference between the banks' buy and sell rates for ISK/USD plus the small transfer costs).

[molecular]

thanks for your analysis, whoever you are 

[TheSignsGuy]

It looks like Cryptopia is back on track.

Couldn't withdraw AUR for a while due to the recent fork and upgrade (yeah, to me AUR has absolutely been upgraded with the multi-algo and better block times), but now Cryptopia works great again as an option for purchasing.

[molecular]

my feel of the market:

Accumulation.

Market is rather calm after the (gladly not totally crazy) latest revival bull market: miners are selling, poeple are accumulating.

Floor seems to be 0.00024. 0.0002 has been touched and I wouldn't rule it out in the coming months (at least spike lows could easily reach there). 0.00015 seems possible mid-term, albeit far fetched. 0.00008 (pre-hype low) seems very unlikely. Support would be insane at that level.

So I'm guessing we'll trade in the range 0.0002 - 0.0003 for quite a while (many months, maybe even a year, but depending on fundamentals/news). Kind-of like bitcoin has been trading 200-300 throughout 2015.

This is very good for the foundations plans of furthering adoption in Iceland. Everything seems to be running smoothly with the new multi-algo and other improvements and we have a great dev team to thank for that.

[TheSignsGuy]

I wonder how much of this is actually true:

http://www.revolutions2040.com/iceland-finally-confirms-9-top-bankers-jailed-46-years/

Maybe Iceland has what it takes to make something happen in regard to digital currency also?

[Bimmerhead]

Just came across a terrific website for discussing altcoins from an investor's perspective. Molecular you might want to also discuss Auroracoin price action there, as a way of exposing Auroracoin to other speculators.

https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/aur/overview/BTC