[AUR] Auroracoin market observer

[molecular]

It was suggested in main Auroracoin thread to move discussion about trading, investing etc. to a seperate thread in order to keep that one more focused on development and things not regarding market price.

I can understand why people are put off by others talking about profiting from a hype and all that, but keep in mind that 'investing', even 'gambling' fulfils a function. See post by Zangelbert Dingelback about the social role of the investor

So, feel free to

• discuss AUR price / walls / dump / pumps
• discuss future value of AUR
• vent your emotions about price or other things
• discuss generally about aur / nationcoins / crypto / money / politics / society / science / religion / whatever...

please be civilized and truthful, thanks.

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[molecular]

today saw some really strange price action on cryptsy:



After days, maybe weeks of relatively sideways movement after the runup to 35k had corrected to around 25k, we've seen some downside action.

This wasn't a 'normal' dump as we've seen some before. At least I experienced some strange selling behaviour some time after the big volume had subsided (7:00 to 11:00 in my screenshot). Around 18:00 today after work I had seen what had happened and placed some largish buy orders in the 22 or 23 range (don't remember exactly). Sell bot(s) immediately started eating into it in rapid (about 0.5 to 1.5 seconds apart) single trades ranging in quantity around 5 to 25 AUR each. These came in bursts of maybe 20 to 40 trades. Then a pause and then it would start again. After it had subsided (my order filled 2/3rds) I placed another order slightly higher and the same thing happened again.

Maybe a misbehaving bot?

[molecular]

observing some buy walls (stable so far, it seems, some got eaten into):



seems strong support building around 15000

[kinder112]

Seems like this thread didn't get much love.

As of yesterday we are dipping below 0.00013 with strong down trend.
Seems like the coin is slowly dying. Dev team announced lately that they are almost done with exchange but not much status updates have been given.

Any ideas what might be causing the sudden down trend, did people just start loosing hope in AUR?

[Ingatqhvq]

this coin is still alive, that's suprise me.
                                                                               

[molecular]

Seems like this thread didn't get much love.

As of yesterday we are dipping below 0.00013 with strong down trend.
Seems like the coin is slowly dying. Dev team announced lately that they are almost done with exchange but not much status updates have been given.

Any ideas what might be causing the sudden down trend, did people just start loosing hope in AUR?

I'm still observing and trading the market almost daily.



It didn't take much AUR to push through 15, 14, and 13 (I admit I played a part in that). Sellers are growing increasingly reluctant on the way down and buyers stronger, however. There's a bottom somewhere.

market is extremely thin, very low liquidity. Only a couple of bots and the occasional trader. And of course constant selling pressure from multipools and other miners.

Fundamentally I don't know what the hell will happen. It all depends wether or not the devs and community builders have just been blowing hot air or there is some substance.

AUR can be either a rocket or become completely irrelevant. People buying now are either very smart or will be bag-holders. Take your pick.

[molecular]

2 x 20k sell down to 10 after earlier retraction up to 13



wasn't me this time

more to come? I don't know.

Cheap coins!

[kinder112]

Not so cheap anymore, there was 50k volume transaction just today  looks like some big buys.

[molecular]

Not so cheap anymore, there was 50k volume transaction just today   looks like some big buys.

yes, there's a lot of buy pressure. One huge order at 0.000113 was 63,000 AUR yesterday (now down to 43,000) and other big orders provide good support.

looks like a double bottom to me.



could be a bull trap, but I don't think so.

[molecular]

Not so cheap anymore, there was 50k volume transaction just today   looks like some big buys.

yes, there's a lot of buy pressure. One huge order at 0.000113 was 63,000 AUR yesterday (now down to 43,000) and other big orders provide good support.

looks like a double bottom to me.



could be a bull trap, but I don't think so.

Just to evaluate this: it turned out to be a bull-trap: Price didn't go beyond 0.00015 for the next months, instead it went down to a low of 0.000049 on Oct 14th. So it was a double bottom only for a couple of days. Then more of a dead cat bounce.

[molecular]

Price history on bittrex since roughly the beginning of trading there (excluding initial spike).

Pretty volatile.

[molecular]

here's chart from  bittrex, hourly candles



Bear view: 8000 seems hard to tackle. Bears can't push through, there's a 30k bid there (has been for ages, weeks at least) that doesn't move and below there's more. Too expensive/risky to push down: when the fiat exchange goes live, AUR could shoot up and we're holding the bitcoin bag.

Bull view: Volume is low, seems like miners use the exchange to sell, so we can slowly collect cheap coins. Slippage is high to the upside, though, so patience is a virtue.

[rocanonz]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.
The guy who placed the buy walls, knew what he is doing. You will never see AUR this cheap again.
Buy, hold and enjoy the ride.

[molecular]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.

Your guesstimates about miner selling make a lot of sense. Maybe it's a little less, even.

I agree: support around 8000 is grandiose. That 30k support wall has been there forever and doesn't move. And it's not alone. It could well be we're looking at a bottom here.

The guy who placed the buy walls, knew what he is doing. You will never see AUR this cheap again.

Not sure how you mean that. The huge order was pulled, not filled, so the guy didn't buy much (if anything at all). He could've been selling, even. The 10,000 AUR sell wall is still in place, btw.

Buy, hold and enjoy the ride.

Here I basically agree

[rocanonz]

I can be completely wrong, but it doesn't matter 

The 10000 order was placed by a miner who want to cash out. Electricity is not so cheap in Holland or US.
The big order (16BTC) was placed, hoping someone will eat the 10000 AUR cake and knowing that the big bag holders, will not sell a dime with the coming developments. (new algo?, icelandic exchange, AUR merchant tools, etc.)
Still the 10000AUR sell order looks like a good entry point, for anyone who wants to have a decent return in few months, from now on.
---
If i remember well, all the big buy orders including the 30000AUR were placed the same time, back in December 2015.
I'm speculating o the idea that they were intended as accumulation and buy support, for AUR and her blockchain for the holidays, when you just want to have a good time. Of course he knew the development perspective for AUR, soon to become real.

[molecular]

@rocanonz

I think your "accumulation and support" over the holidays story is plausible.

This market is very very slow at this time. Low volume and low trading frequency.

I think it's good. Bulls can accumulate what miners mine.

[rocanonz]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.

Your guesstimates about miner selling make a lot of sense. Maybe it's a little less, even.

I agree: support around 8000 is grandiose. That 30k support wall has been there forever and doesn't move. And it's not alone. It could well be we're looking at a bottom here.

I was right. 8000 support is broken, 18 days latter

[molecular]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.

Your guesstimates about miner selling make a lot of sense. Maybe it's a little less, even.

I agree: support around 8000 is grandiose. That 30k support wall has been there forever and doesn't move. And it's not alone. It could well be we're looking at a bottom here.

I was right. 8000 support is broken, 18 days latter

Congratulations on a very good calculation.

The astute observer will have noticed that the last 12000 AUR of that wall at 8000 were sold just in the last hour (one trade, actually). This might lessen the perceived validity of above calculation (miner selling should be more steady). Let me assure you it's completely valid: the continual miner selling was buffered slightly above the wall @8000 (after 8400 was broken in a similar manner) and then the buffer was emptied in one go.

What amazes me is that there is no other selling. Only strong hands left?

[ny2cafuse]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.

Your guesstimates about miner selling make a lot of sense. Maybe it's a little less, even.

I agree: support around 8000 is grandiose. That 30k support wall has been there forever and doesn't move. And it's not alone. It could well be we're looking at a bottom here.

I was right. 8000 support is broken, 18 days latter

Congratulations on a very good calculation.

The astute observer will have noticed that the last 12000 AUR of that wall at 8000 were sold just in the last hour (one trade, actually). This might lessen the perceived validity of above calculation (miner selling should be more steady). Let me assure you it's completely valid: the continual miner selling was buffered slightly above the wall @8000 (after 8400 was broken in a similar manner) and then the buffer was emptied in one go.

What amazes me is that there is no other selling. Only strong hands left?

I think some of the volume is being traded on the ISK/AUR exchange now.  There was a large increase in trading there in the last couple days and a 10% increase in trading price.

-Fuse

[rocanonz]

I guess only few players are active in this market (5-15). Most of them, long time holders. Only strong hands left around.
---
The AUR exchange isx.is price increase was due to a @10000AUR single buy in a extremely low liquidity exchange, with a super thin order book. For me, Bittrex reflects better the present AUR market condition.

[molecular]

we're seeing a little bit of buying coming in, likely due to the fact that the AUR exchange moved a little closer due to the politicians affirming "no VAT".

[robelneo]

I have send the rise and downfall of aurora coin,but now it is a dead in my opinion am surprise that there are still movement on it's market,when a new coins comes out in the market my thought is will this become a new aurora or will it suffer the same fate

[rocanonz]

I have send the rise and downfall of aurora coin,but now it is a dead in my opinion am surprise that there are still movement on it's market,when a new coins comes out in the market my thought is will this become a new aurora or will it suffer the same fate

Your assumptions are not enough verified. Dig more
You can start from here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1044432.0

[molecular]

I guess only few players are active in this market (5-15). Most of them, long time holders. Only strong hands left around.

Once in a while it feels like a new guy or two enter the market to buy in.

Recently there have been some itchy buying fingers at work.

Seem to me people are competing trying to accumulate AUR... price had to give at some point and it started to.

[Skarfur]

I guess only few players are active in this market (5-15). Most of them, long time holders. Only strong hands left around.

Once in a while it feels like a new guy or two enter the market to buy in.

Recently there have been some itchy buying fingers at work.

Seem to me people are competing trying to accumulate AUR... price had to give at some point and it started to.

Well we have been getting more people involved recently here in Iceland and the word is spreading and I'm pretty confident that these are Icelanders that see what is going on and what is about to happen.

[molecular]

I guess only few players are active in this market (5-15). Most of them, long time holders. Only strong hands left around.

Once in a while it feels like a new guy or two enter the market to buy in.

Recently there have been some itchy buying fingers at work.

Seem to me people are competing trying to accumulate AUR... price had to give at some point and it started to.

Well we have been getting more people involved recently here in Iceland and the word is spreading and I'm pretty confident that these are Icelanders that see what is going on and what is about to happen.

And/or Icelanders that see and seize arbitrage opportunities?

8 ISK/AUR (rate on beta exchange) is about 0.00016 BTC/AUR if I'm not mistaken: still roughly 30% above the rate on bittrex. Quite a juicy opportunity (if liquidity is high enough).

[Skarfur]

I guess only few players are active in this market (5-15). Most of them, long time holders. Only strong hands left around.

Once in a while it feels like a new guy or two enter the market to buy in.

Recently there have been some itchy buying fingers at work.

Seem to me people are competing trying to accumulate AUR... price had to give at some point and it started to.

Well we have been getting more people involved recently here in Iceland and the word is spreading and I'm pretty confident that these are Icelanders that see what is going on and what is about to happen.

And/or Icelanders that see and seize arbitrage opportunities?

8 ISK/AUR (rate on beta exchange) is about 0.00016 BTC/AUR if I'm not mistaken: still roughly 30% above the rate on bittrex. Quite a juicy opportunity (if liquidity is high enough).

Not sure we're there yet. I suspect it's mainly people that want to buy in to hold and see that currently they have better price on foreign exchanges than ISX.

[soltantgris]

Not solely market related - but I do wonder what value (AUR) would be needed to cover, let's say, 1% of Iceland transaction.  Let's assume each AUR is worth 1$.  That give a marketcap of more or less 7 000 000$.  Or about... 21$ worth of AUR in each Icelandic hand.  21$ - so few.  And even 20$ per AUR ?  424$ per icelandic citizen.  I guess it would be enought to cover a decent % of daily transaction ?

What you guys think ?  Some ppl think that we may see AUR value rise 10x or even 100x if things get rolling - but would it be enought to cover a decent part of icelandic transaction ?

PS: I just want to add that being a new member of the dev team, I can say that these guys almost never discuss AUR price - and when they do, it's only to point that the value should to be highter to cover icelandic market needs.

[Bimmerhead]

Looking at the price action on some other coins this week we should hope that some Chinese investors fall in love with Auroracoin.

Scotcoin up 10x in 15 days?

[rocanonz]

Looks like the AUR market has settle down a little. I was too bullish with sell orders placed to high. It's not much, just few coins to make me feel I loose or win something.
I think that selling now, it's not a great option. Strong support and a very thin ask book order. So better be left out in the cold with a bag, waiting for the news to pop up, then looking at a parabolic move with few satoshi's in your balance.
Next time i'll be on the spot, but you know there is always a maybe.

If you buy AUR then your time is now. Tomorrow.... who knows?

[BitcoinNational]

Is there a directory of real icelanders who hold AUR?
Is there a directory of real businesses who hold AUR?

Price is secondary to the on the ground work.

[Bimmerhead]

Is there a directory of real icelanders who hold AUR?
Is there a directory of real businesses who hold AUR?

Price is secondary to the on the ground work.

There was a directory of businesses at aurcoin.is but the site owner has let it lapse and hasn't responded to messages, so the plan is to build another based on existing code.

Ground work can be followed at auroraspjall.com or on here at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1044432.0

This thread was created to keep price talk off the main thread.

[Bimmerhead]

Bittrex is looking rather lopsided. Difficult to make a large buy without moving the price substantially. Need more sellers here!

[molecular]

Bittrex is looking rather lopsided. Difficult to make a large buy without moving the price substantially. Need more sellers here!

Whoever wanted to sell below 20 kSat already did.

Not in this context of bitcoin outflow to alts. Can you imagine what happens when some of that outflow hits our tiny little coin?

[Bimmerhead]

Bittrex is looking rather lopsided. Difficult to make a large buy without moving the price substantially. Need more sellers here!

Whoever wanted to sell below 20 kSat already did.

Not in this context of bitcoin outflow to alts. Can you imagine what happens when some of that outflow hits our tiny little coin?

Oh that we would receive 1/1000th of the volume of Ethereum!

[Bimmerhead]

Looks like we're catching a little inflow today.

There's Investor's Hub for penny stock discussion, and Silicon Investor, and Raging Bull.

Does anyone know if there is there a discussion forum for cryptocurrency investing?

[molecular]

wow, that escalated quickly after we broke the dreaded 20 kSat.

[TheSignsGuy]

I am interested to see what happens when the new wallet and algorithms take place.


edit: not just for the hype, but for the functionality and increased decentralization it may provide.

I believe that it will make a more stable, "better" coin, therefore increasing it's value.

[ny2cafuse]

I am interested to see what happens when the new wallet and algorithms take place.


edit: not just for the hype, but for the functionality and increased decentralization it may provide.

I believe that it will make a more stable, "better" coin, therefore increasing it's value.

That's what we're shooting for.

After the release is finalized, you'll see some of the other private development efforts come to light as well.  I'm not going to create hype and say "we're going to da moonz", but at this point there is no reason why we would see an organic decrease in price.

-Fuse

[soltantgris]

I am interested to see what happens when the new wallet and algorithms take place.


edit: not just for the hype, but for the functionality and increased decentralization it may provide.

I believe that it will make a more stable, "better" coin, therefore increasing it's value.

That's what we're shooting for.

After the release is finalized, you'll see some of the other private development efforts come to light as well.  I'm not going to create hype and say "we're going to da moonz", but at this point there is no reason why we would see an organic decrease in price.

-Fuse

Next steps arriving sooner than later - and even if we indeed don't want hype - I'm convinced that, before the end of the summer - the actual price point will be only a far dream. 

[rocanonz]

The all time AUR logarithmic price chart looks very well
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/price-aur.html

[soltantgris]

The all time AUR logarithmic price chart looks very well
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/price-aur.html

Please explain ?  I see that price is somewhat reaching the ''low'' it reached after the bubble collapse. 

[molecular]

The all time AUR logarithmic price chart looks very well
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/price-aur.html

Please explain ?  I see that price is somewhat reaching the ''low'' it reached after the bubble collapse. 

maybe he saw it in a mirror?

[LTEX]

The all time AUR logarithmic price chart looks very well
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/price-aur.html

Please explain ?  I see that price is somewhat reaching the ''low'' it reached after the bubble collapse. 

maybe he saw it in a mirror?

I think he clicked on the 3 months button. Then it looks nice indeed :-)

[rocanonz]

The all time AUR logarithmic price chart looks very well
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/price-aur.html

Please explain ?  I see that price is somewhat reaching the ''low'' it reached after the bubble collapse.  

1) AUR has broken up the historical resistance (green line).
2) Double Bottom Reversal.

[molecular]

1) AUR has broken up the historical resistance (green line).
2) Double Bottom Reversal.

aaah. switch to LOG, ok

cool. hadn't noticed break of the resistance.

[molecular]

Last bus stop to get on?

Otherwise look at the back of the bus driving away?

;-)

[sofu]

The all time AUR logarithmic price chart looks very well
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/price-aur.html

Please explain ?  I see that price is somewhat reaching the ''low'' it reached after the bubble collapse.  

1) AUR has broken up the historical resistance (green line).
2) Double Bottom Reversal.

With that long accumulation phase it can make an x10 

[rocanonz]

Slowly heading north.
*ascending

[soltantgris]

Slowly heading north.
*ascending

Price is holding into the 22-28k range for some time now - even with multipool auto-selling, and this is something positive.  This is clear nobody want to sell at this moment.  There is good buy offers at 20k+, and still nobody fill it.  So we see people accumulating between 22-28k - and this will help the next price rise.  I know Auroracoin team is not focussing on price - but still, to get a shot at icelandic market, we know AUR price will need to be WAY highter.  This triangle thing is nice - but when promotion will start rolling in iceland, I wonder how far it will propulse AUR. 

[rocanonz]

Slowly heading north.
*ascending

Price is holding into the 22-28k range for some time now - even with multipool auto-selling, and this is something positive.  This is clear nobody want to sell at this moment.  There is good buy offers at 20k+, and still nobody fill it.  So we see people accumulating between 22-28k - and this will help the next price rise.  I know Auroracoin team is not focussing on price - but still, to get a shot at icelandic market, we know AUR price will need to be WAY highter.  This triangle thing is nice - but when promotion will start rolling in iceland, I wonder how far it will propulse AUR. 

„when promotion will start rolling in iceland, I wonder how far it will propulse AUR.”

AUR is a „game theory” enforcing tool for Icelanders seeking for changing the rules of the Icelandic monetary game.

How far this new game will reach depends on:
- AUR tools offered to Icelanders based on proof that they are secured mechanisms for value store and exchange
- marketing of these tools so that people can know they exist and are easy to use
- the Icelandic belief system and will of action as it is now regarding property, freedom and value in a broad sense

My answer is: I don't know how much AUR value can increase but I have an intuition that high enough
Only good old time will tell...
---
Given the ultra low liquidity and possible manipulation of this market is just fun for me to do technical analysis on it.
For entertainment purpose only.

[Bimmerhead]

Slowly heading north.
*ascending

Do you mind if I repost your chart here?

http://investorshub.advfn.com/Auroracoin-USD-AURUSD-30830/

[rocanonz]

Slowly heading north.
*ascending

Do you mind if I repost your chart here?

http://investorshub.advfn.com/Auroracoin-USD-AURUSD-30830/

Thank you. You can repost it

[rocanonz]

I've placed a reasonable small sell order at 0.001BTC
I'm convinced it's a very good deal for anyone interested  

* buy signal enforced.

[soltantgris]

I've placed a reasonable small sell order at 0.001BTC
I'm convinced it's a very good deal for anyone interested  

* buy signal enforced.

Indeed. 

It's pretty safe to say that most if not all guys from the dev team won't sell significant pieces until it's actually possible to use it first. 

[rocanonz]

Much silence here. Any new prediction?
I forsee a hot summer in Iceland. Hotter and greener than usual.

[molecular]

currently thinking "buy the rumor sell the news" could be a good approach.

I'm selling a bit on every rise to dampen the hype. I agree with the team that the last thing the coin needs is a pump & dump.

If the market wants it, we wont be able to stop it though... not me at least.

Prediction: I think we'll see 100k before may 1st

[solid12345]

currently thinking "buy the rumor sell the news" could be a good approach.

I'm selling a bit on every rise to dampen the hype. I agree with the team that the last thing the coin needs is a pump & dump.

If the market wants it, we wont be able to stop it though... not me at least.

Prediction: I think we'll see 100k before may 1st

The thing about price rises is you'll think its a pump and dump until it's not.

The reality is AUR is alot rarer than what CMC reports because many coins are lost due to exchange hacks and theft, alot of the supply is also locked up in native Icelanders hands, alot more in strong hands who held thru 2 years, people who deleted their wallets thinking it was a fad and this is just me talking about the supply.

How do you put a price on what could be the beginnings of an entire country, albeit small, using crypto? Think about the worldwide media attention it could bring.

[soltantgris]

currently thinking "buy the rumor sell the news" could be a good approach.

I'm selling a bit on every rise to dampen the hype. I agree with the team that the last thing the coin needs is a pump & dump.

If the market wants it, we wont be able to stop it though... not me at least.

Prediction: I think we'll see 100k before may 1st

The thing about price rises is you'll think its a pump and dump until it's not.

The reality is AUR is alot rarer than what CMC reports because many coins are lost due to exchange hacks and theft, alot of the supply is also locked up in native Icelanders hands, alot more in strong hands who held thru 2 years, people who deleted their wallets thinking it was a fad and this is just me talking about the supply.

How do you put a price on what could be the beginnings of an entire country, albeit small, using crypto? Think about the worldwide media attention it could bring.

I share your view.  Crypto world is so used to PnD from devs that most people can't hardly trust any project.  Told this before - after being burned many times by scammers in cryptos, I decided to put my money and efforts only in projects I would be part of.  Took me some time to jump into AUR project, but now I fully trust the team behind, so I don't fear any backstab from them.  And as you said, some of them are from the biggest AUR owners - so the ''danger'' of a dump from that side is so little I don't even consider it as existant.  But how to know until you know ? 

BUT

I don't know if I should trust people eating rotten shark, animal balls, and letting their womens showing her attributes around #freethenipple

Fearless prediction : Aur will be 2016 most supported success story in crypto.

Lets the battle begins.

[Porte]

currently thinking "buy the rumor sell the news" could be a good approach.

I'm selling a bit on every rise to dampen the hype. I agree with the team that the last thing the coin needs is a pump & dump.

If the market wants it, we wont be able to stop it though... not me at least.

Prediction: I think we'll see 100k before may 1st

Do you have a converter to know how much is 100K in Dollars?

[molecular]

currently thinking "buy the rumor sell the news" could be a good approach.

I'm selling a bit on every rise to dampen the hype. I agree with the team that the last thing the coin needs is a pump & dump.

If the market wants it, we wont be able to stop it though... not me at least.

Prediction: I think we'll see 100k before may 1st

Do you have a converter to know how much is 100K in Dollars?

0.001 btc * 433 usd/btc  = 0.433 usd

[leigh2k14]

I think 100K is doable by may 1st.


We hit 90K last night.

[soltantgris]

The best way to improve AUR price is to actually help to reach its goal - adoption in iceland.  If we reach our goal and get massive use in iceland, the actual price will be a joke from the past, in my opinion ''a pizza for 10 000 bitcoin''_like.  Bitcoin was once 0.45$ too.  And bitcoin adoption is almost inexistant worldwide - still its value  is actually 430$.  Auroracoin don't have to reach the world.  Just have to get into 330 000 hands in iceland.  Help the project, the price will follow.  We need a market cap WAY bigger to support a decent % of domestic icelandic trades.

[rocanonz]

We must never forget that Auroracoin project is not only about money, it's also about ethics. And this is the Auraráð foundation role to defend with the help of M1 fund. ”It  involves systematizing, defending, and recommending concepts of right and wrong conduct.”

The board of Auraráð foundation is true to his heart and knowledgeable. Because of this, I'm confident that Auroracoin project will succeed on the field of value and ethics and become a subject of inspiration for the word.

[soltantgris]

Kind words, and it is exactly how I see auroracoin and my peers within the team. Never been with such idealist people, and as I said many time, I feel honored to be part of such group. And the best part is if we reach our noble goal, both the ethic and the financial side will be positive.

[soltantgris]

Good morning guys !

Barely discussed, I wonder how bitcoin halving will influence its price - and how this will impact AUR price.  Timing is one more time interesting, and I wonder how a bitcoin rally would impact every other coins.  Not that AUR need BTC to exist (no BTC pair in iceland) - but still a factor.

[rocanonz]

Good morning guys !

Barely discussed, I wonder how bitcoin halving will influence its price - and how this will impact AUR price.  Timing is one more time interesting, and I wonder how a bitcoin rally would impact every other coins.  Not that AUR need BTC to exist (no BTC pair in iceland) - but still a factor.

True price discovery will come from within Iceland. A price evolution like the above one it's possible.
Growth to 0,002BTC followed by a longer consolidation.
I have no reason to belive this graph as true or false. Just an intuition.

[molecular]

Good morning guys !

Barely discussed, I wonder how bitcoin halving will influence its price - and how this will impact AUR price.  Timing is one more time interesting, and I wonder how a bitcoin rally would impact every other coins.  Not that AUR need BTC to exist (no BTC pair in iceland) - but still a factor.

True price discovery will come from within Iceland. A price evolution like the above one it's possible.
Growth to 0,002BTC followed by a longer consolidation.
I have no reason to belive this graph as true or false. Just an intuition.

interesting intution. You probably can't tell what it's based on, can you? Judging from the graph one could think that maybe you've been looking at "old restistances/support"?

Here's another chart of the old times. Not logarithmic.



However, there's loads of caveats regarding looking at this very old data for hints:

• should we look at Auroracoin in terms of BTC or FIAT?
• That history is really, really old. Buyers/sellers from back then probably have low impact nowadays. There weren't many coins at at (the first airdrop was only 38.3 AUR/person and the coin had just started, with no premine (supposedly) being sold)
• Note that the lowest point on that graph on the right is 0.009 BTC/AUR. That's crazy. We have multiple magnitudes more AUR available today

I would rather not look at this very old history.

About consolidation around 0.002: yes, that's possible, but I think 0.001 or 0.003 are more likely for having a break, though (intuition). It can only be a break, too: for a long-term valuation it doesn't make much sense (that's either too low or too high)

[soltantgris]

Price speculation using graphs is, in this case, for me, irrelevant.  I mean, there is way to many external factors to get any decent evaluation the market.  How would the price be influenced by these factors, positive or negative ?  I mean, a couple of weeks ago, AUR was traded around 25k sato.  And few days ago, it ''dropped'' to 65k !  Market adjust itself pretty fast to new reality.  There is not much difference between 0.001 and 0.01 or 0.1 in a so ''thin and somewhat new'' market.

Question, looking back a while back, when bitcoin was barely traded, and was worth let's say 10 cents.  How accurate would have been a technical analysis back then ?

That being said, I enjoy a lot reading such analysis !  And I see that some are spot on, from time to time - so let's see how it goes here.

[208]

Back in the old bitcoin days, I loved this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI

Maybe this is a bit more appropriate for Iceland;)

[rocanonz]

„You probably can't tell what it's based on, can you?” - Of course I can speculate on few assumptions beyond the irrelevant "old restistances/support".
1) I consider the 1$/AUR a psychological barrier.
2) Summer is coming and as we all know it's dead time for doing business. Because of this I'm expecting a lower adoption pace.
3) First to come into the Icelandic exchange will be “connoisseurs” and I'm expecting them to start AUR accumulation without pushing up the price too much.
And again these are just speculations and must be treated as such

[Porte]

„You probably can't tell what it's based on, can you?” - Of course I can speculate on few assumptions beyond the irrelevant "old restistances/support".
1) I consider the 1$/AUR a psychological barrier.
2) Summer is coming and as we all know it's dead time for doing business. Because of this I'm expecting a lower adoption pace.
3) First to come into the Icelandic exchange will be “connoisseurs” and I'm expecting them to start AUR accumulation without pushing up the price too much.
And again these are just speculations and must be treated as such

I don't thinks nobody knows what will happen, as in crypto anything could happen. It could be  $1 tomorrow as it can be $0.1 as it could be $10. We don't know. The value of a coin is not pure science. Its very volatile.

[Bimmerhead]

Would be great if one of you technical analyst gurus would start an Auroracoin thread at forexfactory.com

Might bring in some new people who haven't encountered Auroracoin before.

[molecular]

(cross-posting from main thread because I got lead to the topic of price...)

So, you have to live in icland for 7 years and right after that you can start to trade on isx.is!)

You can also just come here in 1-2 years and have money to spend! How about paying for your hotel, flight, and all restaurants in 2 years with Auroracoin.

I think that's the way to go.

It'll be very interesting to see how (if, to what extent) arbitrage will be done. I believe there are probably be mechanisms to circumvent the capital controls and if there's money to be made, it will be done. Question is how high will the difference be... one should basically be able to see the cost imposed by capital controls (plus normal fees, of course)...

hmm. https://beta.isx.is/ redirects to https://isx.is/. Is the exchange live?

Just checked price. It's around 38 ISK/AUR = 0.31 USD/AUR = 0.00067 BTC/AUR

So the price on the icelandic exchange is 40% above the bittrex price.

so I'm guessing it's rather expensive to sell those ISK for EUR/USD/BTC? Or maybe it's just not enough volume yet to justify ($1000 24h volume on isx)...

Here's a good link posted in the other thread that shows volumes and price on different exchanges: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/auroracoin/#markets

[god.aur]

The bare-minimum price difference between AUR bought with ISK and AUR bought with ISK->USD->BTC is around 8%. This is simply the sum total of the high (5-%) credit card transfer fees, disadvantageous BTC sell offers on the cc-enabled exchanges (2+%) and the difference between the Icelandic banks' and VISA Iceland's ISK/USD exchange rate (1%).

Given all the hassle, this bare-mininum 8% premium is probably more like 15% or more. Indeed, the Icelandic market has sustained a +30% price pretty steadily over this initial week of business at ISX – as is indeed the case right now when AUR is at 35 ISK on ISX, and at the same time at 480b on Bittrex, which is exactly 30%.

However, the volume on ISX after its opening on 3 May has been as high or higher than on Bittrex, which begs the question of who drives whom.

Anyway, arbitrage ought to equalise the two to within around 15% over time, or until the capital controls in Iceland are lifted, at which time the difference should be within 1% (i.e. the difference between the banks' buy and sell rates for ISK/USD plus the small transfer costs).

[molecular]

thanks for your analysis, whoever you are 

[TheSignsGuy]

It looks like Cryptopia is back on track.

Couldn't withdraw AUR for a while due to the recent fork and upgrade (yeah, to me AUR has absolutely been upgraded with the multi-algo and better block times), but now Cryptopia works great again as an option for purchasing.

[molecular]

my feel of the market:

Accumulation.

Market is rather calm after the (gladly not totally crazy) latest revival bull market: miners are selling, poeple are accumulating.

Floor seems to be 0.00024. 0.0002 has been touched and I wouldn't rule it out in the coming months (at least spike lows could easily reach there). 0.00015 seems possible mid-term, albeit far fetched. 0.00008 (pre-hype low) seems very unlikely. Support would be insane at that level.

So I'm guessing we'll trade in the range 0.0002 - 0.0003 for quite a while (many months, maybe even a year, but depending on fundamentals/news). Kind-of like bitcoin has been trading 200-300 throughout 2015.

This is very good for the foundations plans of furthering adoption in Iceland. Everything seems to be running smoothly with the new multi-algo and other improvements and we have a great dev team to thank for that.

[TheSignsGuy]

I wonder how much of this is actually true:

http://www.revolutions2040.com/iceland-finally-confirms-9-top-bankers-jailed-46-years/

Maybe Iceland has what it takes to make something happen in regard to digital currency also?

[Bimmerhead]

Just came across a terrific website for discussing altcoins from an investor's perspective. Molecular you might want to also discuss Auroracoin price action there, as a way of exposing Auroracoin to other speculators.

https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/aur/overview/BTC

[molecular]

Just came across a terrific website for discussing altcoins from an investor's perspective. Molecular you might want to also discuss Auroracoin price action there, as a way of exposing Auroracoin to other speculators.

https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/aur/overview/BTC

I tried and wrote quite a long opinion. Unluckily it got lost because their email confirmation system wasn't sending me the account activation link, so I couldn't submit the post ;(.

Might try again.

[molecular]

So, I've been lazily observing that one huge account on bittrex.

It used to have around around 160 kAUR in it on the way down to 0.00014 BTC/AUR.

Now it has 260 kAUR in it:



I don't know how that happened. Did he buy those 100,000 or was it another transfer?

I still don't know wether or not it's true this account got filled with stolen coins, but I'm pretty sure it was the one used for dumping on us when we had that last rally end of October.

Not to spread fear, but I'm a little worried we might see another dump.

So any opinions / facts about this account and who/what's behind it?

[ny2cafuse]

So any opinions / facts about this account and who/what's behind it?

I would need them to verify, but I'm pretty sure it's either BioMike or LTEX.

I'll ask the team and post back when I find out.

-Fuse


EDIT- I can confirm that this is one of the team members.  They just haven't moved the coins off the exchange.  No worries of a dump.

[soltantgris]

So, I've been lazily observing that one huge account on bittrex.

It used to have around around 160 kAUR in it on the way down to 0.00014 BTC/AUR.

Now it has 260 kAUR in it:



I don't know how that happened. Did he buy those 100,000 or was it another transfer?

I still don't know wether or not it's true this account got filled with stolen coins, but I'm pretty sure it was the one used for dumping on us when we had that last rally end of October.

Not to spread fear, but I'm a little worried we might see another dump.

So any opinions / facts about this account and who/what's behind it?

Hi buddy !

I don't know about it all - and to be honest I do care little - I did appreciated the last dump.  Lot of people (including me) got some cheaper coins - and the market reacted very fast.  Don't know a lot of coin that would be able to absorb such hit without any damage.  It suck that stolen coins are out there, but as soon as someone drop these coins, this a treat disapearing.  I would jail this fucker - but there is little we can do - and you know we tried. 

[BioMike]

Yes, that wallet is me. I've moved some coins from the market, as it seems that it makes people nervous.

[molecular]

@nycafuse and @biomike: thanks for the info.

I don't know about it all - and to be honest I do care little - I did appreciated the last dump.  Lot of people (including me) got some cheaper coins - and the market reacted very fast.  Don't know a lot of coin that would be able to absorb such hit without any damage.  It suck that stolen coins are out there, but as soon as someone drop these coins, this a treat disapearing.  I would jail this fucker - but there is little we can do - and you know we tried. 

I also appreciate the recent dump. The sooner stolen coins get into better hands, the better. It also stopped the hype-based (on false hopes) rallye in its tracks, which is also a good thing. In addition I agree: it's good to be able to replenish ones stash at low prices.

[BioMike]

I've been following the market the last few weeks. Some observations:

* BTC price is up ~30% since the start of the year.
* USD price kept steady around 0.11 USD (+/- 0.02USD)
* The support wall at 12k sat. hasn't been touched since it has been placed a few weeks ago and support has been building up above it. Liquidity has been improved since November/December.

I think this is a good basis for some nice growth this year.

[molecular]

AUR has reached historical bottom valuations of BTC 0.00008



This low point has been touched a couple of times in the past as marked on my crude chart above.

It will be very interesting to see what'll happen. I haven't followed fundamentals much.

Any predictions?