[2015-05-20] Upstart: How BTC will survive after the last bitcoin is given away

[bryant.coleman]

http://upstart.bizjournals.com/entrepreneurs/hot-shots/2015/05/20/how-bitcoin-will-survive-after-the-last-bitcoin-is.html

“Right now transaction fees are tiny because there aren’t that many transactions and because miners care about getting those new bitcoins, they don’t care about fees. ”In fact, those fees are tiny, meaning they could still be substantially increased without losing much advantage of the high price of transacting online using other technologies.

[Kakmakr]

The man on the street should only understand this part, [ “The easy answer, which may or may not be correct is that transaction volume will ramp up, we’ll scale the network and transaction fees will take over,” said Andresen ]
In 125 years from now, Bitcoin will be a distant memory and we would be paying with our minds. ^Ha Ha Ha^
At the rate we are going now, the world would be destroyed and we would have nothing to buy.

[LiteCoinGuy]

answer: we add another 21 mio.

[bryant.coleman]

answer: we add another 21 mio.

That will never happen. The existing Bitcoin-holders will oppose any such move. Why should anyone agree to the dilution of their wealth? For example, I am having a 1% stake in Apple. One day, the Apple CEO comes out with an announcement that everyone's stake will be diluted by 50%. Why should I agree to any such measure?

[Professor Plums]

answer: we add another 21 mio.

That will never happen. The existing Bitcoin-holders will oppose any such move. Why should anyone agree to the dilution of their wealth? For example, I am having a 1% stake in Apple. One day, the Apple CEO comes out with an announcement that everyone's stake will be diluted by 50%. Why should I agree to any such measure?

Yeah, there would be an uproar if this happened and it would devalue everybody else's coins. Besides, it doesn't need to happen as the fees by then will hopefully be substantial enough to keep the miners mining. More decimal places can be added if bitcoin's become so rare as well.

[1Referee]

answer: we add another 21 mio.

That will never happen. The existing Bitcoin-holders will oppose any such move. Why should anyone agree to the dilution of their wealth? For example, I am having a 1% stake in Apple. One day, the Apple CEO comes out with an announcement that everyone's stake will be diluted by 50%. Why should I agree to any such measure?

Yeah, there would be an uproar if this happened and it would devalue everybody else's coins. Besides, it doesn't need to happen as the fees by then will hopefully be substantial enough to keep the miners mining. More decimal places can be added if bitcoin's become so rare as well.

Mining with just fees as reward is not really something to look forward to as pool. Currently, a block rewards you with around $5900 worth of Bitcoins.

Let's say the average fee reward will be 0.15BTC per block at the time all coins are mined. You will need a single Bitcoin to be worth $40000 to get around $6000 worth of Bitcoin as a block reward.

I really can't see Bitcoin go much higher than $5000, if ever.

[Neg]

answer: we add another 21 mio.

That will never happen. The existing Bitcoin-holders will oppose any such move. Why should anyone agree to the dilution of their wealth? For example, I am having a 1% stake in Apple. One day, the Apple CEO comes out with an announcement that everyone's stake will be diluted by 50%. Why should I agree to any such measure?

Yeah, there would be an uproar if this happened and it would devalue everybody else's coins. Besides, it doesn't need to happen as the fees by then will hopefully be substantial enough to keep the miners mining. More decimal places can be added if bitcoin's become so rare as well.

Mining with just fees as reward is not really something to look forward to as pool. Currently, a block rewards you with around $5900 worth of Bitcoins.

Let's say the average fee reward will be 0.15BTC per block at the time all coins are mined. You will need a single Bitcoin to be worth $40000 to get around $6000 worth of Bitcoin as a block reward.

I really can't see Bitcoin go much higher than $5000, if ever.

Mining and mining equipment might be less costly in the future. Won't it be easier when they just have to process fees and nothing else as well? Anyway, it's not something we need to worry about as we'll all be dead.

[zetaray]

Cost of  mining will drop before the time comes and everyone can mine on their mobile device. Bitcoin can be worth much less than $6000 to keep the network secure.

[bryant.coleman]

Let's say the average fee reward will be 0.15BTC per block at the time all coins are mined. You will need a single Bitcoin to be worth $40000 to get around $6000 worth of Bitcoin as a block reward.

I really can't see Bitcoin go much higher than $5000, if ever.

We are talking about the 2140 scenario. That is, more than 125 years from now. I will be quite surprised, if the Bitcoin is valued at less than $ 1 million per coin by then. $150,000 will be a very attractive block reward. And taking in to account the reduced costs in mining equipment, we will be seeing a lot of competition in mining.

[1Referee]

Let's say the average fee reward will be 0.15BTC per block at the time all coins are mined. You will need a single Bitcoin to be worth $40000 to get around $6000 worth of Bitcoin as a block reward.

I really can't see Bitcoin go much higher than $5000, if ever.

We are talking about the 2140 scenario. That is, more than 125 years from now. I will be quite surprised, if the Bitcoin is valued at less than $ 1 million per coin by then. $150,000 will be a very attractive block reward. And taking in to account the reduced costs in mining equipment, we will be seeing a lot of competition in mining.

I know it's far away, but your price estimate is beyond insane. If we all think like that, then we are all potential millionaires, and some even billionaires. That money has to come from somewhere 

[Professor Plums]

Let's say the average fee reward will be 0.15BTC per block at the time all coins are mined. You will need a single Bitcoin to be worth $40000 to get around $6000 worth of Bitcoin as a block reward.

I really can't see Bitcoin go much higher than $5000, if ever.

We are talking about the 2140 scenario. That is, more than 125 years from now. I will be quite surprised, if the Bitcoin is valued at less than $ 1 million per coin by then. $150,000 will be a very attractive block reward. And taking in to account the reduced costs in mining equipment, we will be seeing a lot of competition in mining.

I know it's far away, but your price estimate is beyond insane. If we all think like that, then we are all potential millionaires, and some even billionaires. That money has to come from somewhere 

We won't because we'll all be dead. Bitcoin may have even been and gone before the end of our lifetime any way. I don't think bitcoin will get to some of these silly projections people pull out but bitcoin certainly can multiply by a lot if we can get some big industries involved.

[RodeoX]

The fees will always be the lowest competitive price to operate the network. Satoshi did not design the network to make miners rich. It is a set of financial incentives to compete for processing fees. If a miner finds the fee to be too low he/she can refuse to process that transaction. Perhaps another miner will process it, or perhaps no miner will. In that case the fees will go up.
Which brings us right back to the lowest competitive price.

[bryant.coleman]

I know it's far away, but your price estimate is beyond insane. If we all think like that, then we are all potential millionaires, and some even billionaires. That money has to come from somewhere 

It is not insane. Imagine by 2140, there will be two billion people using Bitcoin. Since there are a total of 21,000,000 coins in circulation, each of the users will be having an average of BTC0.01 with them. If one BTC is worth $ 1,000,000 by then, the average users' Bitcoin holdings will be worth just $10,000 each.