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人民日报:资产泡沫破灭会导致旷日持久金融危机
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Topic: 人民日报:资产泡沫破灭会导致旷日持久金融危机 (Read 485 times)
jsgayo
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人民日报:资产泡沫破灭会导致旷日持久金融危机
May 28, 2015, 07:59:45 AM
#1
国际货币基金组织最近指出,如果银行与其他金融机构的规模在经济体中比重过大,金融业引发经济与金融波动的成本将超过其对经济增长的贡献。目前,美国、日本等发达经济体金融部门的发展已露出过度的迹象。
金融周期的时间一般长达10余年甚至更长,显然一个完整的金融周期的长度大大超过经济周期。在金融周期的波峰阶段,通常会出现金融业过度发展的状况。
金融业过度发展带来的主要风险包括三个方面。首先它会导致资产价格泡沫积累,最终使得市场估值上升至实体经济无法支撑的水平,而资产价格泡沫的破灭通常会导致旷日持久的金融危机与经济危机。上世纪80年代末日本泡沫经济与本世纪美国次贷危机都是典型的案例。其次,由于金融监管很难跟上金融业的发展水平,因此,大量的监管不足或监管真空导致金融脆弱性累积,最终可能酿成危机。例如,在美国次贷危机爆发前,证券化产品发展过快,导致对相关风险难以进行准确评估,加上监管又非常宽松,以至于成为危机传染的渠道,甚至是危机的放大器。第三,如果金融业的发展明显脱离实体经济,其融资功能将被明显削弱,这将导致大量流动性在金融系统内空转,而实体经济融资成本却居高不下,有时甚至出现大量企业“在流动性的海洋中被渴死”的结局。
得注意的是,尽管国际金融危机的爆发与金融业的过度发展密切相关,但金融业的规模或重要性并未因此有明显下降。相反,随着发达国家集体实施量化宽松政策,金融业继续,甚至进一步以超过实体经济的步伐扩张,这很可能会埋下新一轮金融危机的种子。目前距危机爆发已有7年,但发达经济体甚至世界经济的增长速度依然显著低于危机前,长期停滞成为困扰各国的现实问题。相比之下,全球资产价格在过去7年却快速上涨。其原因是,量化宽松释放的流动性并未真正进入实体经济,而是进入了股票等金融资本市场,从而形成一种正反馈机制。
让金融业由过度发展转变为平衡发展,还有很长的路要走。
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Troonetpt
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Re: 人民日报:资产泡沫破灭会导致旷日持久金融危机
May 28, 2015, 10:03:39 AM
#2
上面明显就是在赌博嘛,当年比特币泡沫毕竟只是牵涉到少数人,而这个,就恐怖了。
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