Do not expect any major rally soon

[johnyj]

First, during the previous 5 years, most of the new coins are distributed among bitcoiners, most of them are holding bitcoins for long term, thus minimal sell pressure on exchanges. Now most of the new coins are in the hands of mining companies, they have to continuously sell the coins to deal with the cost, unless they have a long term vision. The uncertainties in regulation does not make it easy to make a long term plan


Second, the previous rally happened during a time when there were minimal regulation on exchanges, so that huge amount of fiat money could easily enter MTGOX and Chinese exchanges and drove up the price

Now after major exchanges were all tightened rules and have much more strict AML/KYC measure, it is very difficult to move large amount of fiat money in and out of exchanges. Currently I can see whales are targeting bitfinex, but there are still concerns about its safety

The positive side is the price will become very stable and that makes it easy to use bitcoin to measure value

[NorrisK]

On the other side, regulated and registered exchanges will be popping up soon, making it easier and safer for people to enter bitcoin through 'normal' channels. If that money comes in, it may become huge.

[randy8777]

On the other side, regulated and registered exchanges will be popping up soon, making it easier and safer for people to enter bitcoin through 'normal' channels. If that money comes in, it may become huge.

a lot people can already easily buy and sell bitcoin without problems. regulated exchanges won't make loads of people buy just because of it being regulated. it's a nice bonus. nothing more.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think we could enter the beginning of a potential bubble by the end of 2016.
There are a number of things that could be bullish for the price -

NY Bitlicense
COIN ETF
Gemini Exchange

Plus we have adoption creeping up all the time, new businesses, corporations integrating bitcoin into their payment systems.
The halving in 2016 could play a big part too, naturally the price will rise & the amount of coins supplied will be less, people may make a move in autumn to buy these cheap coins before the price goes up.

Don't be so negative my friend, the coins are cheap atm, I advise you all to buy whilst you still can.

[Amph]

On the other side, regulated and registered exchanges will be popping up soon, making it easier and safer for people to enter bitcoin through 'normal' channels. If that money comes in, it may become huge.

a lot people can already easily buy and sell bitcoin without problems. regulated exchanges won't make loads of people buy just because of it being regulated. it's a nice bonus. nothing more.

not to mention that exchanges are dumping also, i doubt they keep the total bitcoin revenue just for the sake of waiting the next bubble, until the demand is not stronger than the supply the price will remain there

[WhatTheGox]

First, during the previous 5 years, most of the new coins are distributed among bitcoiners, most of them are holding bitcoins for long term, thus minimal sell pressure on exchanges. Now most of the new coins are in the hands of mining companies, they have to continuously sell the coins to deal with the cost, unless they have a long term vision. The uncertainties in regulation does not make it easy to make a long term plan


Second, the previous rally happened during a time when there were minimal regulation on exchanges, so that huge amount of fiat money could easily enter MTGOX and Chinese exchanges and drove up the price

Now after major exchanges were all tightened rules and have much more strict AML/KYC measure, it is very difficult to move large amount of fiat money in and out of exchanges. Currently I can see whales are targeting bitfinex, but there are still concerns about its safety

The positive side is the price will become very stable and that makes it easy to use bitcoin to measure value

Its easier now to get bitcoin than it used to be, however its still a pian in the arse.  Exchanges like coinbase have made it easier to get bitcoin with regs vs before.  MtGox couldn't link banks direct iirc. We also have ATMs now which weren't around on any previous bubbles.

The price will shoot up when people least expect it i should imagine.

[8up]

In my words. (Possible dollar collapse not taken into account).

• Summer 2015 up to ~$700
• Autumn/Winter 2015 down to ~$400
• Througout 2016 stable as fuck at around ~$400
• Winter/Spring 2017 next rise to ~$2700
• Summer 2017~ $2000

Time and price can deviate from here   (worldwide adoption/use cases found)

• Summer 2018 ~ $14000
• Autumn 2018 ~ $4000
• Summer 2020 ~$67000
• 2021 to 2024 ~ $20000

[Assad]

On the other side, regulated and registered exchanges will be popping up soon, making it easier and safer for people to enter bitcoin through 'normal' channels. If that money comes in, it may become huge.

Why would people spend real money on BTC if there's no volatility? That's like going to a casino where you can't win & there aren't any hookers. Think before you post, brah.

In my words. (Possible dollar collapse not taken into account).

• Summer 2015 up to ~$700 meandering between ~$180 and $200
• Autumn/Winter 2015 down to ~$160
• Througout 2016 stable as fuck at around ~$160

FTFY, quote me for truth.

bitcoin volatile: no one is going to buy it because it is too volatile and only can be used for gambling, and serious players don't want to lose your money, and volatile is for gambling things, not for a currency. Bitcoin is only for get-rich-quick people and will die soon

bitcoin is stable: no one will buy it because they can't get rich quickly

[Xialla]

Bitcoin is only for get-rich-quick people and will die soon
no one will buy it because they can't get rich quickly

so you are here why? to see how bitcoin is slowly falling down until it die, to troll or post bullshit like above?

[azguard]

In my words. (Possible dollar collapse not taken into account).

• Summer 2015 up to ~$700
• Autumn/Winter 2015 down to ~$400
• Througout 2016 stable as fuck at around ~$400
• Winter/Spring 2017 next rise to ~$2700
• Summer 2017~ $2000

Time and price can deviate from here   (worldwide adoption/use cases found)

• Summer 2018 ~ $14000
• Autumn 2018 ~ $4000
• Summer 2020 ~$67000
• 2021 to 2024 ~ $20000

Interesting but hard to happen at least in this order.

[anderson00673]

On the other side, regulated and registered exchanges will be popping up soon, making it easier and safer for people to enter bitcoin through 'normal' channels. If that money comes in, it may become huge.

Why would people spend real money on BTC if there's no volatility? That's like going to a casino where you can't win & there aren't any hookers. Think before you post, brah.

In my words. (Possible dollar collapse not taken into account).

• Summer 2015 up to ~$700 meandering between ~$180 and $200
• Autumn/Winter 2015 down to ~$160
• Througout 2016 stable as fuck at around ~$160

FTFY, quote me for truth.

bitcoin volatile: no one is going to buy it because it is too volatile and only can be used for gambling, and serious players don't want to lose your money, and volatile is for gambling things, not for a currency. Bitcoin is only for get-rich-quick people and will die soon

bitcoin is stable: no one will buy it because they can't get rich quickly

I read a really interesting article that argued the price of bitcoin will be related to how any people use it.  I wish I had the link but I forgot where I read it.  Anyway it said that 15% of the world population used it then the price would go as high as 500k usd or something like that.  It may be a little far fetched with that number but I tend to agree that long term the price of bitcoin will be linked in a big way to how many people use it.

In order for people to actually use it then it has to have price stability.  No one wants to use a currency that changes in value so quickly.  If I go to the market to buy apples, I expect the price to not change much week to week.  If the price of apples changed as much as bitcoins then it would be impossible to budget for anything.

You will always have investors and speculators.  Always.  They are not always a bad thing.  Imagine how low the volume on trading exchanges would be without bots.  It might be dificult to buy/sell bitcoins, and alt coins would be very difficult.

[RodeoX]

After application of a Fibonacci sequence multiplied by a Martingale constant and divided into the total market share, I have determined that I haven't a clue what the price next week will be. 

[1Referee]

The only rally I expect, is a few months before block halving in 2016. I can't see much happen this year, at least current price seems strong enough to not go below $200.

[jertsy]

The only rally I expect, is a few months before block halving in 2016. I can't see much happen this year, at least current price seems strong enough to not go below $200.

The price is flatlining for the moment but I suppose the whales will get bored eventually and start either pumping or dumping. I don't know if it will go up or down but I cannot imagine it staying flat for much longer, it's too boring.

[1Referee]

The only rally I expect, is a few months before block halving in 2016. I can't see much happen this year, at least current price seems strong enough to not go below $200.

The price is flatlining for the moment but I suppose the whales will get bored eventually and start either pumping or dumping. I don't know if it will go up or down but I cannot imagine it staying flat for much longer, it's too boring.

We already had a few, and there will be more mini pumps and dumps comming our way, but I don't expect them to be more than $20-$30 up or down without major news.

[gentlemand]

It'll be very interesting to see what form any future rally takes. The methods for buying, selling and making money out whatever moves turn up are so much more spread out and complex compared to the past.

I don't think KYC/AML is gonna make any difference. I was around pre November 2013 and there wasn't anywhere I bought coins from that didn't insist on the exact same stuff they want today.

[prodigy8]

That is what my instinct tells me, it feels like it can go down a bit more before it comes back up
I feel something big is going to happened in Bitcoin within months, hopefully something positive
Any really negative economic news should be positive for Bitcoin at this point

[Benjig]

That is what my instinct tells me, it feels like it can go down a bit more before it comes back up
I feel something big is going to happened in Bitcoin within months, hopefully something positive
Any really negative economic news should be positive for Bitcoin at this point

Agree, I truly believe Bitcoin is in the bottom line. Don't be fooled when you see a Bitcoin price prediction that calls for a collapse in the digital currency. It connects all of mankind by the core of our existence in modern time: Money and communication/ internet.

Bitcoin is the neutral and smartest money, and it enables Social Media with value. But for now, we just have stable prices.

[bassclef]

The market already reversed after the mega high volume activity in January. So many coins changed hands that there are now enough holders and current demand can keep the price at these levels. All weak hands and skeptics are out of the market and the few remaining are simply trolling or playing morality police, angry that they missed out or got burned. It's a good price range to build a position if you're bullish about the future, and how could you not be if you've been following Bitcoin's progress these past few years?

There may be miners selling but we can't be sure of who, how much and where, so it's incomplete information and shouldn't be used to speculate. Besides they didn't stop the rallies to $266 and $1200 from happening. As soon as they get a whiff that a bull market is imminent those coins will be held with vigor to sell later. Many coins will be taken off the market once a big rally gets underway. Everyone waits. That's part of what causes it in the first place.

I think a big rally is likely sometime this fall, with a drift upward similar to summer 2013 once the whales take the brakes of the market and are done collecting. At some point things will become too optimistic and too expensive to hold down.

[johnyj]

bitcoin volatile: no one is going to buy it because it is too volatile and only can be used for gambling, and serious players don't want to lose your money, and volatile is for gambling things, not for a currency. Bitcoin is only for get-rich-quick people and will die soon

bitcoin is stable: no one will buy it because they can't get rich quickly

There are many participants, each have different goal. Speculators who wanted to get rich quick always end up watching this sub forum  

But there are also people using it for international remittance and long term saving purpose, the later is the main group that is absorbing the bitcoin sell pressure right now

Bitcoin is stable ->  More and more people will use it as a tool to fight inflation and to send money overseas -> the demand will pass supply and cause the price to rally -> more speculators will join the rally and drive a large bubble -> bitcoin will become unstable

So the volatility will always be high