May 31st to June 14th diff adjustment thread with promo picks NOW CLOSED!

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom is still on a spike up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,589,591,154
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,398,877,456 (+1.70%)
Adjust time:    After 879 Blocks, About 5.9 days

Price at 225 and slowly moving up.

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[HerbPean]

Once again and since a few diff, someone just put the fire on about 20-25 PH and get us to around 365 PH.

My guess is it will be +2-3% as the usual

[notlist3d]

Tonight's change on bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,589,591,154
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,701,896,889 (+2.34%)
Adjust time:    After 781 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):    375,143,213 GH/s

Make sure to look at previous dificulty change aswell: May 31 2015    47,589,591,154    -2.50%    340,659,563 GH/s

So since we had a decent negative the previous period really even if we get a 3-4 in the end it's not that bad of change.

Price has had a nice jump were currently in the 228's.   Currently going down a little, but a nice rally.

[notlist3d]

Tonight's change on bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,589,591,154
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,701,896,889 (+2.34%)
Adjust time:    After 781 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):    375,143,213 GH/s

Make sure to look at previous dificulty change aswell: May 31 2015    47,589,591,154    -2.50%    340,659,563 GH/s

So since we had a decent negative the previous period really even if we get a 3-4 in the end it's not that bad of change.

Price has had a nice jump were currently in the 228's.   Currently going down a little, but a nice rally.

Were still in a nice rally.  We have hit 230 and kept going up.  Were almost to hot 231 - http://www.coindesk.com/price/

So was a good day on price.

[Mikestang]

Were still in a nice rally.  We have hit 230 and kept going up.  Were almost to hot 231 - http://www.coindesk.com/price/

So was a good day on price.

Back below 230 this morning, but still looking good.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


May 31------   33 blocks       +3----------------estimate due to partial day
june 1------- 135 blocks       - 9
june 2------- 150 blocks        +6
june 3------- 138 blocks        -6  
june 4------- 140 blocks        -4
june 5------- 149 blocks        +5
june 6------- 172 blocks        +28     puts us at plus 23  
june 7------- 146 blocks        +2      puts us at plus 25
june 8------- 158 blocks        +12         plus 37

1221 made should be 1182    this is 1221/1182 = 1.03299-1 = .03299 =   (+3.299%)  as of the end of June 8th
 




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

 (+3.25%) 

BTC/USD:231


to further show the rise this adjustment.


https://blockchain.info/blocks


June 9 blocks are :

 360068 at 00:04
 360172 at 16:12


that means 105 blocks made   and norm is 6 x 16 = 96 +1 97

so 105 vs 97 = 8.24% for the day.   so far this is putting us next to 3.6% for the entire adjustment period.

[alh]

It seems too that it's impossible to separate out the effects of the following items:

- Normal Bitcoin variance (i.e. statistical).
- Addition of new hardware, or removal of old/obsolete hardware (no longer profitable).
- Relocation of a mining facility. Hashrate is "disappears" while in transit, but then returns.
- A mining firm (e.g. cloud miner), just goes under and their hashrate disappears.

The relative stability in difficulty is also probably due to the large numbers involved. To seriously "move the needle" now requires multiple Petahashes. Even with "Super Deluxe 21 Inc." hardware that's no mean feat in terms of facilities creation and setup. There a fewer and fewer places where it's reasonable to even start such a facility. That was less true 18 months ago when BTC was $1000.

[valkir]

and another up % 

I was pretty happy with the last one.

Im afraid the diff will spike soon with Bitmain S7 (july), the new KNC and the new bulb Bitfury.

[alh]

and another up % 

I was pretty happy with the last one.

Im afraid the diff will spike soon with Bitmain S7 (july), the new KNC and the new bulb Bitfury.

KNC and a new Antminer (aka S7) will likely have an impact. The BitFury bulb is strictly s stunt in my opinion. I expect it will have zero impact on the difficulty this calendar year (probably ever).

[valkir]

I do agree that the bulb will probably not have a big impact on the hashrate. But I guess that if the bulb work (IF) it will maybe bring new hardware manufacture to work this way. I like the idea to secure the network with all device but sometime you need to check the value behind it.

I dont like big farm because of centralisation of the hashrate but doing a miner in every device is not the best solution, I thinks.

[alh]

My view on a product like the BitFury bulb is that if you are interested in Bitcoin and mining, there several ways to mine more efficiently and at lower cost in the long term. If you aren't interested in Bitcoin (i.e. 95% of LED bulb buyers), then it will appear like a massively over-priced LED bulb (which it is), and never get purchased. If it is somehow subsidized to bring it into parity with a "regular" LED bulb, it likely won't get configured to actually do anything. If it somehow prices out OK, and requires no configuration, then it will almost certainly be doing mining on behalf of some "pool" associated with the vendor. At that point the "decentralize to secure the network" argument collapses.

I should probably just shut up about gadgets like this, though it might be fun to own one. 

[alh]

This is almost certain to a positive increase in difficulty. It's probably going to feel like a "gut punch" based on the relative calm of the last few months. It's also possible that "ASIC Arms Race" will resume later this summer, which would be a real shame. While I'd like the next 3 months be like the last 3, I think that's not in the cards.

Just my rather dour outlook. 

[philipma1957]

This is almost certain to a positive increase in difficulty. It's probably going to feel like a "gut punch" based on the relative calm of the last few months. It's also possible that "ASIC Arms Race" will resume later this summer, which would be a real shame. While I'd like the next 3 months be like the last 3, I think that's not in the cards.

Just my rather dour outlook. 

I would love to make a witty remark.  But I had ½ of a bottle wine for dinner along with a very nice skirt steak and ¼ of a cheese cake.  Basically I can only do a very loud burb in agreement with you.

I sold all my coins. I sold most of my gear. This summer I run 1.6th in my friends office at 3 cent a kwatt I will also do some work with the new usb sticks.

[Kexkey]

...I had ½ of a bottle wine for dinner along with a very nice skirt steak and ¼ of a cheese cake.

Phil, red wine + steak (rare?) is perfect... but really, ¼ of a cheese cake is too much.  We care about your health Phil.  We need you here. 

[philipma1957]

...I had ½ of a bottle wine for dinner along with a very nice skirt steak and ¼ of a cheese cake.

Phil, red wine + steak (rare?) is perfect... but really, ¼ of a cheese cake is too much.  We care about your health Phil.  We need you here.  

wife split the cheesecake  with me so it was ⅛  of it for me .  but man oh man I am looking to eat some more.

[notlist3d]

Difficulty for the night from bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,589,591,154
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,098,514,019 (+3.17%)
Adjust time:    After 615 Blocks, About 4.1 days
Hashrate(?):    362,532,603 GH/s

So it's looking like we will see a positive change.   Price has went up and down but we are around 229 right now.  We very well could cross into 230's again as it had during day.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


May 31------   33 blocks       +3----------------estimate due to partial day
june 1------- 135 blocks       - 9
june 2------- 150 blocks        +6
june 3------- 138 blocks        -6  
june 4------- 140 blocks        -4
june 5------- 149 blocks        +5
june 6------- 172 blocks        +28     puts us at plus 23  
june 7------- 146 blocks        +2      puts us at plus 25
june 8------- 158 blocks        +12         plus 37
june 9------- 150 blocks        +6           plus 43
june 10 ----  164 blocks        +20         plus 63


1557 blocks made should be 1494  I get  +4.21%














https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

 (+5.79%)  

BTC/USD:229

we could finish 1 day early we have 459 blocks to go  looks like we finish on sat not sun  looks like another carry over  as no one is in a  +5%.

the top contenders are below.


+1.76% to +2.00% Moebius327   Note  +0.01% to 0.25% was taken
+2.01% to +2.25% SunnyIgor
+2.26% to +2.50% tss
+2.51% to +2.75% Kexkey
+2.76% to +3.00% alh
+3.01% to +3.25% hobbymd corrected to  +3.01% to +3.25%


+4.01% to +4.25% skuser

Seems that KNC has started mining with new gear.

[alh]

This is kinda what I felt yesterday. While I agree that this is likely "more than just variance", I didn't have a good way to find the most proximate cause of the increase. Is your choice of KNC based on an instinct, or something more concrete?

[philipma1957]

I read a few articles here and there.  They surmised KNC was going to start mining with .07 to .2 watt gear this month.

If KNC can do this  in the summer it will put a lot of pressure on marginal farms. Especially if KNC can drive price down under 200$

[notlist3d]

I read a few articles here and there.  They surmised KNC was going to start mining with .07 to .2 watt gear this month.

If KNC can do this  in the summer it will put a lot of pressure on marginal farms. Especially if KNC can drive price down under 200$

Price so far is doing good it's on a small upswing.  I personally hope we see the price to continue to rise.

Even if KNC replaces all of their old gear and add's some I think eventually it will slow down.  I think part of what makes this jump so bad is we had a negative the week before.  If you take the -2.5 out of the 5.5 or so positive change right now as it appears.  Were talking about around a 3 percent jump still kinda small.