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Author Topic: So when the fork is planned ? February 2016 ?  (Read 868 times)
RussianRaibow
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June 01, 2015, 09:05:50 PM
 #1

I think I read it somewhere. But, could not find the info again...

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June 01, 2015, 09:12:21 PM
 #2

I don't think there is an official date, but Gavin wants it to happen between 6 months and a year, so around Early 2016.

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June 01, 2015, 09:14:36 PM
 #3

I don't think there is an official date, but Gavin wants it to happen between 6 months and a year, so around Early 2016.

FWIW, at least that may coincide with the new BitcoinTalk forum being in Beta.

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June 01, 2015, 09:28:41 PM
 #4

Early 2016 would be about right.

Here's the deal.  2-term U.S. presidents do something big near the end.  Bush Sr. would have had done NAFTA but he had to leave it to Clinton.  Clinton did away with Glass-Steagall.  Bush Jr. did the 'bail-out'.  Obama will probably do a 'bail-in' at the very least, and it has been being field tested here and there over his term.

Unfortunately Bitcoin works.  The block-chain is 'good as gold', and the real problem is that it fits on a single HDD (thanks mostly to Satoshi
s 1mb patch.)  It is probably not going to be feasibly to permanently destroy Bitcoin since open-source is very robust, but it would be possible to create so much chaos that during a critical time it will not be a very safe option for people to preserve and transfer wealth.  That is the goal of the upcoming internecine warfare in Bitcoinland.  Whether Gavin is in on things as some hypothesize or just a Manchurian candidate type dude who managed by a few handlers is unimportant.


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June 01, 2015, 09:57:54 PM
 #5

I don't think there is an official date, but Gavin wants it to happen between 6 months and a year, so around Early 2016.

My question here: Will Gavin wait for Bitcoin XT nodes to be a solid majority before the hard fork so it doesn't generate controversy since it would mean the majority of node runners want the 20MB fork, or will he do the hard fork anyway out of nowhere?

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June 01, 2015, 10:08:53 PM
 #6

I don't think there is an official date, but Gavin wants it to happen between 6 months and a year, so around Early 2016.

My question here: Will Gavin wait for Bitcoin XT nodes to be a solid majority before the hard fork so it doesn't generate controversy since it would mean the majority of node runners want the 20MB fork, or will he do the hard fork anyway out of nowhere?
He will do it by first soft-forking when there is a majority (>50%) then hard-forking when there is a super-majority (>90%) of nodes using and accepting the new block version.

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June 01, 2015, 10:13:34 PM
 #7

I don't think there is an official date, but Gavin wants it to happen between 6 months and a year, so around Early 2016.

My question here: Will Gavin wait for Bitcoin XT nodes to be a solid majority before the hard fork so it doesn't generate controversy since it would mean the majority of node runners want the 20MB fork, or will he do the hard fork anyway out of nowhere?
He will do it by first soft-forking when there is a majority (>50%) then hard-forking when there is a super-majority (>90%) of nodes using and accepting the new block version.
Well, then I don't really see the problem. People decides. Decentralization still prevails.
What does a soft fork scenario really means?

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June 01, 2015, 10:16:16 PM
 #8

The thing is also: until the fork happens or until it's off the table there can not be any great amount of 'new money' expected because who should be buying into this now?

Adoption just was crushed and brought to a halt. Nobody can recommend bitcoin to friends and family at this point in time. No new money for a year will also make sure we end up in double digits or lower as people start selling once they realize this to be true. I'm expecting a panic sooner or later. Maybe we'll see this Bitcoin thing now simply die down to single digits over the next months in a spasm of endless panicselling.

I'd have to laugh out loud if number of transactions dies down and starts happening on an altcoin (or a couple of them). Gavins' clowns would be served well with it.

Hashrate also goes where the money is. The Bitcoin could fall apart long before the fork happens just because investors confidence was lost with the uncertainty and with it the inflow of new money.
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June 01, 2015, 10:22:19 PM
 #9

Well, then I don't really see the problem. People decides. Decentralization still prevails.
What does a soft fork scenario really means?
[/quote]
I believe it means that updated nodes will reject older version blocks and only accept the new version. Since the miners for the new version have a higher percentage of the mining power, the new version blocks will most likely be forming the longer chain. Since the new version blocks would still follow the old rules, nodes that did not update will still accept them. Once the super-majority accept the new blocks, then the hard fork will occur and any node that is not updated will be forked onto the old chain.

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June 01, 2015, 11:55:38 PM
 #10

I don't think there is an official date, but Gavin wants it to happen between 6 months and a year, so around Early 2016.

My question here: Will Gavin wait for Bitcoin XT nodes to be a solid majority before the hard fork so it doesn't generate controversy since it would mean the majority of node runners want the 20MB fork, or will he do the hard fork anyway out of nowhere?
He will do it by first soft-forking when there is a majority (>50%) then hard-forking when there is a super-majority (>90%) of nodes using and accepting the new block version.

I have two questions here...

i. Is it possible to know what % of nodes are running XT before the fork ?

ii. Why you are saying two forks like soft fork & hard fork ? As I can see, there is only one fork, i.e. raising the limit to 20MB. What would be done after 50% reach and what would not be done before 90% reach ?

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June 01, 2015, 11:56:11 PM
 #11

The thing is also: until the fork happens or until it's off the table there can not be any great amount of 'new money' expected because who should be buying into this now?

Adoption just was crushed and brought to a halt. Nobody can recommend bitcoin to friends and family at this point in time. No new money for a year will also make sure we end up in double digits or lower as people start selling once they realize this to be true. I'm expecting a panic sooner or later. Maybe we'll see this Bitcoin thing now simply die down to single digits over the next months in a spasm of endless panicselling.

This is exactly why this has gotten a lot less funny.  The core team fighting like this and the minority, no matter how outspoken or how much I agree with him, taking their ball and throwing it in our faces is just not cool.

If this is to be done, best that it be done quickly!
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June 02, 2015, 12:01:21 AM
 #12

The thing is also: until the fork happens or until it's off the table there can not be any great amount of 'new money' expected because who should be buying into this now?

Adoption just was crushed and brought to a halt. Nobody can recommend bitcoin to friends and family at this point in time. No new money for a year will also make sure we end up in double digits or lower as people start selling once they realize this to be true. I'm expecting a panic sooner or later. Maybe we'll see this Bitcoin thing now simply die down to single digits over the next months in a spasm of endless panicselling.

This is exactly why this has gotten a lot less funny.  The core team fighting like this and the minority, no matter how outspoken or how much I agree with him, taking their ball and throwing it in our faces is just not cool.

If this is to be done, best that it be done quickly!

I hope it IS resolved soon!  I think the recent drop in bitcoin price was due to fear that the coin will go bust.  People who don't understand what is going on think that it will be catastrophic.  I must admit that I was frightened when I first heard of the split, but after reading up on some actual facts I learned that the changes are not as scary as they seem.  Sooner or later people will calm down and everything will return to normal-ish.  Or at least I hope so!

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June 02, 2015, 12:08:51 AM
 #13



I hope it IS resolved soon!  I think the recent drop in bitcoin price was due to fear that the coin will go bust.  People who don't understand what is going on think that it will be catastrophic.  I must admit that I was frightened when I first heard of the split, but after reading up on some actual facts I learned that the changes are not as scary as they seem.  Sooner or later people will calm down and everything will return to normal-ish.  Or at least I hope so!

You only know half the story. Read the old threads like this one:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=919629.0
and this
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=941331.0
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June 02, 2015, 12:24:22 AM
 #14

I have two questions here...

i. Is it possible to know what % of nodes are running XT before the fork ?
Yes. Look on getaddr.bitnodes.io and you can see how many nodes are running XT.

Quote
ii. Why you are saying two forks like soft fork & hard fork ? As I can see, there is only one fork, i.e. raising the limit to 20MB. What would be done after 50% reach and what would not be done before 90% reach ?
Gavin mentioned something about a soft-fork at a majority and the hard fork at the super-majority. However, I may have misunderstood that part of his email. The fork that actually matters is the hard fork when the super-majority of the nodes use the new version. It is at this point that any older nodes will no longer be on the main blockchain.

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June 02, 2015, 12:36:39 AM
 #15

I have two questions here...

i. Is it possible to know what % of nodes are running XT before the fork ?
Yes. Look on getaddr.bitnodes.io and you can see how many nodes are running XT.

Quote
ii. Why you are saying two forks like soft fork & hard fork ? As I can see, there is only one fork, i.e. raising the limit to 20MB. What would be done after 50% reach and what would not be done before 90% reach ?
Gavin mentioned something about a soft-fork at a majority and the hard fork at the super-majority. However, I may have misunderstood that part of his email. The fork that actually matters is the hard fork when the super-majority of the nodes use the new version. It is at this point that any older nodes will no longer be on the main blockchain.

All this talk about soft-fork and hard-fork makes me wanna cuddle and spoon, if you node what I mean.

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June 02, 2015, 04:13:53 PM
 #16

I have two questions here...

i. Is it possible to know what % of nodes are running XT before the fork ?
Yes. Look on getaddr.bitnodes.io and you can see how many nodes are running XT.
I checked getaddr.bitnodes.io. I is saying to report only nodes running bitcoin core. I also wonder how does someone identify XT as long as it is just a fork of bitcoin core without any extra patch. May be with some checksum it is possible...

Quote
ii. Why you are saying two forks like soft fork & hard fork ? As I can see, there is only one fork, i.e. raising the limit to 20MB. What would be done after 50% reach and what would not be done before 90% reach ?
Gavin mentioned something about a soft-fork at a majority and the hard fork at the super-majority. However, I may have misunderstood that part of his email. The fork that actually matters is the hard fork when the super-majority of the nodes use the new version. It is at this point that any older nodes will no longer be on the main blockchain.

I think, by soft fork Gavin means only use of XT which is not modified for larger blocks. For that, no majority is required as it is same as QT. But, hard fork will probably devide the chain as it would accept blocks bigger than 1 MB. That requires majority and as I understand, Gavin will do it at 90%.

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June 02, 2015, 04:18:34 PM
 #17

it was said that the proposal is planned for march 2016

based on this chart few months after that would be, mandatory to upgrade

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FCEl6tA4WMAAx25o.png%3Alarge&t=552&c=t6tZTGIA5Rmdgw

THE FUTURE OF
REAL ESTATE
..

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June 02, 2015, 04:22:02 PM
 #18

Check out the interview in this thread.  Gavin explains when he wants it to happen and why.  It is a pretty good interview and should help make things a little easier to understand.  But it needs to happen soon or there will be serious problems on the horizon.
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June 02, 2015, 07:41:33 PM
 #19

I have two questions here...

i. Is it possible to know what % of nodes are running XT before the fork ?
Yes. Look on getaddr.bitnodes.io and you can see how many nodes are running XT.
I checked getaddr.bitnodes.io. I is saying to report only nodes running bitcoin core. I also wonder how does someone identify XT as long as it is just a fork of bitcoin core without any extra patch. May be with some checksum it is possible...
Actually, it reports all full nodes on the network, but it uses Bitcoin Core as an example of a full node. If you click on the number of nodes, it is a link that takes you to a page where you can search for nodes. Bitcoin XT nodes are identified by the version string /Bitcoin XT:0.10.0/. As of now, there are 16 nodes running Bitcoin XT.

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