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Warning: Moderators do not remove likely scams. You must use your own brain: caveat emptor. Watch out for Ponzi schemes. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

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usagi
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September 10, 2012, 08:57:11 AM
 #1

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September 10, 2012, 12:28:17 PM
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So you can funnel funds from you other scams to prop this one up for a while, ok.

How about bets that you don't match the ID you provided to Nefario on GLBSE. Or that you won't show you face any where with other bitcoiners?

Or bets on your over all insolvency after a period of time. Not just one you can manipulate with funds from other "securities"

This post gives me Deja Vu

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1009703#msg1009703
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September 10, 2012, 02:42:41 PM
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The contract as offered by you would be a terrible one to accept for a few reasons:

1.  It's not hard to increase NAV if that's all you want to do - either legitimately or otherwise.
a) legitimately - all you have to do is invest (direct or via pass-through) all CPA's assets into Patrick's own fixed-interest offerings.  At that point the only way CPA nav can fall is if Patrick defaults.
b) non-legitimately - haven't looked at a breakdown of CPA's current nav but I'd guess a large chunk of its holdings are companies you run yourself where obviously their declared value can be manipulated by you.  Worse, assets can be transferred between these companies by e.g. insurance 'policies' that aren't claimed on, interest-free loans or just direct transfer of wealth.

2)  Whilst the NAV of CPA can be verified, whether an increase in that NAV represents good business can't.  e.g. if the nav of CPA falls by 100 BTC you can just donate 250 NAV (from personal funds or off-the-books from another of your comapnies) and suddenly it's increased by 150 instead.  As all you report are current holdings not a full transaction history no meaningful verification of how any change in nav occurred can be made.

Let me be clear on a few points, as I think I'm one of the people you made this thread in response to:

1) I'm in no way associated with the earlier poster in this thread.  I don't believe you're trying to scam, nor do I believe you won't match the ID you registered with GLBSE.
2) I DO believe the complicated interactions between your various companies make it very hard for anyone outside to accurately value them - and an inaccurate valuation of (say) nyan.c will automatically lead to a bad valuation for nyan and cpa (and to a lesser extent nyan.a and nyan.b) due to the cross-ownership of blocks of shares.
3) I DO believe you've made some terrible decisions - such as insuring pirate investments at a rate where you couldn't invest the covering funds in 'safe' investments and general total income more than just investing direct into pirate yourself.
4) I believe some of your current invetsments that you think of as low-risk are in fact highly toxic - if you want me to give an example I will.

CPA is supposedly an insurance company.  If you want to make a bet on your ability to make profit from offering insurance (excluding any policies written to your own companies that could choose not to claim) then that would be a far more reasonable bet. 

What IS cpa's target for profitability from insurance? Presumably somewhere or at some time you actually had some vague idea of what profit you intended to make - i.e. to average Z% profit per month with Z comprised of X% profit from insurance (premiums-payouts) and Y% from investing the capital backing the insurance.  What X% are you willing to bet on achieving?

If instead you want to bet on your other offerings then here's points to consider about each:

nyan.a - probably not worth betting on though interesting that it values its holdings of YARR shares at 1.5 now (claimed to be market value when they haven't traded as high as 1.5 for a month).  Pretty sure yesterday it showed them valued at 1.0 (though not certain).  That extra 50 BTC is all that makes nyan.a look like it retained nav.  Have screen-shotted them at 1.5 - just in case when the "typo" is fixed you claim I was lieing about it.  Reason nyan.a isn't worth betting on is that its fall in value is likely to be too slow for returns from shorting to beat other opportunities.

nyan.b - Would definitely we worth shorting in the very short-term, longer would need more analysis.  One particular investment is going to lose heavily very shortly (i.e. this week) though, in fairness, you won't have lost much overall on your investment in it (albeit you invested for the wrong reasons).  If you want me to explain precisely why it'll lower your nav and why you invested for the wrong reasons (and how I KNOW you invested for the wrong reasons) then I'll do so.

nyan.c - betting on this is essentially betting on whether obsi will default during the period of shorting (the income from the investment in him covers most other stuff and when he defaults the loss would wipe out the profit from everything else).

Yarr - not currently operational.  Seems to be offering old shareholders an absolute bargain - for their 1 BTC valued share they can get 10 obsi shares (worth over 1 total at market) AND those shares are insured.  Or are they insured?  You seemed to dodge a few direct questions about that in the thread - yet the motion to change only changed the underlieing investment (from pirate to obsi) and didn't vary anything relating to them being insured.  Not meaningful to short this - though clearly if it's a pass though with insurance then any short just becomes a bet on when obsi will default.
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September 10, 2012, 03:00:37 PM
 #4

------Snip------
Wear some thicker skin, Usagi. Take criticisms, and move on.

The best way to prove all the naysayers wrong is by spending your time focusing on CPA, not on trying to make outside bets.
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September 13, 2012, 07:39:11 AM
 #5

Will you offer up bets on any of your NYAN portfolios? Could make a useful hedge.

Looking for safe diversification? YABIF: Good Returns, Low Fees, Low Risk.

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September 16, 2012, 02:20:18 AM
 #6

According to your own accounting, nyan.c is worth .18 after you correct for nyan.a and nyan.b both being below nav of 1. However, I also noticed that your market prices had also gone down without being corrected. Like yard being worth 1.5 in one portfolio. Your shares of dmc are also cut in half. Jtme is being run into the ground as fast as silverbox can do it without getting a scammer tag. I only mention this because you still have it listed as 1.0 in value. So, the real question is, how much more of nyan's guaranteed payments can cpa afford?

When I first started this post, my intent was to try to get you to bet on nyan.c. In retrospect, that seems childish. A lot of people have entrusted you with money in your various companies. I have no personal desire to see those people lose money over 20 coins. I have decided not to bet against you, I think in the long run, it would be better to have CPA strong than weak, and so I will just give a few things that I notice from looking at your portfolio.

As I see it, right now, you are purely hoping that asics will save your ass. Even then, you are heavily exposed to bfl and no others. Ltc mining will probably lose a lot of its value as people start to look for alt coins with gpus.

I am sorry to be harsh on you. The bigger problem is the lack of good securities on the market right now.

You should drop some of your gigamining. Hydromining at 1.5 has double the m hash and 75% of the cost once the upgrade cost is factored in.

Good luck. I think that it would be to both of our benefits to speak more, and on nicer terms on the future. I also apologize for telling others to abandon CPA.

Looking for safe diversification? YABIF: Good Returns, Low Fees, Low Risk.

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September 16, 2012, 02:35:31 AM
 #7

And deprived has it again. Give the man a pin or something.

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September 16, 2012, 02:49:37 AM
 #8

According to your own accounting, nyan.c is worth .18 after you correct for nyan.a and nyan.b both being below nav of 1. However, I also noticed that your market prices had also gone down without being corrected. Like yard being worth 1.5 in one portfolio. Your shares of dmc are also cut in half. Jtme is being run into the ground as fast as silverbox can do it without getting a scammer tag. I only mention this because you still have it listed as 1.0 in value. So, the real question is, how much more of nyan's guaranteed payments can cpa afford?

When I first started this post, my intent was to try to get you to bet on nyan.c. In retrospect, that seems childish. A lot of people have entrusted you with money in your various companies. I have no personal desire to see those people lose money over 20 coins. I have decided not to bet against you, I think in the long run, it would be better to have CPA strong than weak, and so I will just give a few things that I notice from looking at your portfolio.

As I see it, right now, you are purely hoping that asics will save your ass. Even then, you are heavily exposed to bfl and no others. Ltc mining will probably lose a lot of its value as people start to look for alt coins with gpus.

I am sorry to be harsh on you. The bigger problem is the lack of good securities on the market right now.

You should drop some of your gigamining. Hydromining at 1.5 has double the m hash and 75% of the cost once the upgrade cost is factored in.

I personally would drop the obsi.1mhs. It is trading high because of its convertablility to abmo. However, 1 million shares before you ever realise a profit from trading along with obsi's management fee will melt the pants off of any share appreciation you will ever make.

Good luck. I think that it would be to both of our benefits to speak more, and on nicer terms on the future. I also apologize for telling others to abandon CPA.



I bolded the part that I think is the real issue. Its getting really hard to justify investing in any glbse securities when simply holding bitcoins is the better investment. Can anyone honestly say there is anything on glbse that holds a candle to that ?

Essentially this is crippling the bitcoin securities market and will lead to companies being unable to raise funding.

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September 16, 2012, 02:50:26 AM
 #9

[...]
I personally would drop the obsi.1mhs. It is trading high because of its convertablility to abmo. However, 1 million shares before you ever realise a profit from trading along with obsi's management fee will melt the pants off of any share appreciation you will ever make.
[...]

Just wanted to correct this: The trade-in period ended.

I offered usagi a chance to sell OBSI.1MHS to my personal account at 0.1 but he declined at the time.

OBSI.1MHS will likely have a bidwall placed at 0.1 in late September/early October in anticipation of a price retarget for when ASICs start shipping.

I retract that part of my statement then.

Looking for safe diversification? YABIF: Good Returns, Low Fees, Low Risk.

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puffn
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September 16, 2012, 03:04:22 AM
 #10

According to your own accounting, nyan.c is worth .18 after you correct for nyan.a and nyan.b both being below nav of 1. However, I also noticed that your market prices had also gone down without being corrected. Like yard being worth 1.5 in one portfolio. Your shares of dmc are also cut in half. Jtme is being run into the ground as fast as silverbox can do it without getting a scammer tag. I only mention this because you still have it listed as 1.0 in value. So, the real question is, how much more of nyan's guaranteed payments can cpa afford?

When I first started this post, my intent was to try to get you to bet on nyan.c. In retrospect, that seems childish. A lot of people have entrusted you with money in your various companies. I have no personal desire to see those people lose money over 20 coins. I have decided not to bet against you, I think in the long run, it would be better to have CPA strong than weak, and so I will just give a few things that I notice from looking at your portfolio.

As I see it, right now, you are purely hoping that asics will save your ass. Even then, you are heavily exposed to bfl and no others. Ltc mining will probably lose a lot of its value as people start to look for alt coins with gpus.

I am sorry to be harsh on you. The bigger problem is the lack of good securities on the market right now.

You should drop some of your gigamining. Hydromining at 1.5 has double the m hash and 75% of the cost once the upgrade cost is factored in.

I personally would drop the obsi.1mhs. It is trading high because of its convertablility to abmo. However, 1 million shares before you ever realise a profit from trading along with obsi's management fee will melt the pants off of any share appreciation you will ever make.

Good luck. I think that it would be to both of our benefits to speak more, and on nicer terms on the future. I also apologize for telling others to abandon CPA.



I bolded the part that I think is the real issue. Its getting really hard to justify investing in any glbse securities when simply holding bitcoins is the better investment. Can anyone honestly say there is anything on glbse that holds a candle to that ?

Essentially this is crippling the bitcoin securities market and will lead to companies being unable to raise funding.


I have something that I think will be a fairly nice piece of financial innovation that will be launching in about 3 months. Should help smaller investors more than the current stuff. Not to be rude, but it is easily copied, so I won't give details just yet. Kind of surprised it hasn't been tried yet, but maybe I just missed it.

Looking for safe diversification? YABIF: Good Returns, Low Fees, Low Risk.

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Deprived
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September 16, 2012, 03:25:55 AM
 #11


I bolded the part that I think is the real issue. Its getting really hard to justify investing in any glbse securities when simply holding bitcoins is the better investment. Can anyone honestly say there is anything on glbse that holds a candle to that ?

Essentially this is crippling the bitcoin securities market and will lead to companies being unable to raise funding.


Yep - I've looked in detail at a lot of the companies in this section over the last week or so.  There's very few that are at all attractive to invest in - and everywhere you look there's companies that don't follow their own contracts.

Were I invested in usagi's companies i'd have a ton of questions - but I'm not and none of her investors seem to care, so why should I?  The main reason I asked usagi more questions than most other operators is because she actually provides enough information to actually formulate questions - unlike the black-boxes many companies are.

So if you want to lend capital from nyan to cpa in return for holding 0-income yarr bonds you can.
If you want to further reduce nav in your mining investment company by selling new shares below NAV you can.
If you don't want to bother putting up your contractually obligated bid-wall for nyan.a you can.
If you want to claim you outperformed your sector by comparing an investment company to the performance of the worst-performing mining companies rather than to other investment companies you can.
If you want to claim that losing 40% of your nav is "protecting your investors money" as it's still worth more US$ than it was at the start (due to the exchange rate change) then you can.
etc etc etc

I'm not going to be asking any more questions or making further comment in usagi's company threads unless there's some direct benefit to me (e.g. I pick up some nyan.a below 1.0 and want the bid-wall up so I can cash out my profit) or I actually seriously consdier investing in one.

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September 16, 2012, 05:06:23 PM
 #12


I wasn't aware of JTME. If you know something, can you link me? I appreciate you trying to help NYAN investors. I will take all appropriate action and I will reward you if your information is good.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91374.140

The drama started on page 8 when moincoin noticed some stuff. Essentially, because of the huge portion that the owner is taking due to wording of the contract, the owner already has more shares that were sold to investors. When he allows himself to take full dividends from shares, 1752/2292 shares will be paying him. In order to sell more shares, he will have to sell them below 1 dollar. However, he refuses to sell them at this price.

Quote

Anyways to answer your question -- it appears as if you have misunderstood the structure of CPA's insurance contract to NYAN, or NYAN itself.


I had thought that Nyan.B was also insured.

But if it is a question of finance, CPA has enough assets to indemnify almost all of NYAN.A right now.

Quote

Ok ^^ Does this mean we can be frends?


I don't see any reason to be mean to you. From both a personal and financial aspect, I have nothing to gain from seeing you fail. Once I realized my behavior was out of line, I decided to try and make amends for it. I would be happy to be friends, but before you make a decision, keep in mind that I am partial to hugs.

Quote

I have been thinking of diversifying into ASICMINER again despite the fact they don't pay dividends, and I have been considering ordering a few ModMiner bASIC boards as well or investing into companies which do.

Anyway. Never thought I would say this, but Thanks puffn. I guess you showed me I was being too angry and bitter at people on here and that some people are nice. I am sorry. Good luck Smiley

All is forgiven, and thanks, are always welcome, and appreciated.

Looking for safe diversification? YABIF: Good Returns, Low Fees, Low Risk.

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September 17, 2012, 03:24:56 PM
 #13

Off Topic, but I couldn't resist.

I would be happy to be friends, but before you make a decision, keep in mind that I am partial to hugs.


Awww  Cheesy 
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