3000-6000 BTC loan - Hookah Lounge - 9/18/12 Update

[dank]

How can you speak something as fact when you have no knowledge that what you're saying is factual?  I don't lack novel ideas.

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[Vod]

How can you speak something as fact when you have no knowledge that what you're saying is factual?  I don't lack novel ideas.

I couldn't.  Luckily everything I speak is factual, as deduced by simple logic.

Premise 1) The smartest men in the world could not make a 1.5% sustained weekly return on an investment (more than doubling your money every year)
Premise 2) Based on your reactions to some basic financial concepts, you are not one of the smartest men in the world

Conclusion) You are running a ponzi scheme.

It doesn't matter what ideas you have - everyone has ideas.  Ideas, until acted upon, are worthless.

[repentance]

I'm not too concerned on the air filtering, it's not like people will pass out due to lack of oxygen.

Yeah, but you don't get to decide what level of filtration is adequate.  That will be laid down in government regulations.  At this point, you don't know whether there's an existing HVAC system in the property you're looking at and whether it works.  At the very least, you'd need to hire someone qualified to inspect the plumbing, the wiring and the HVAC system before you'd even consider signing a lease on the building because those are expensive things to fix if they're not up to standard.

Even if a new air filtration system is "only" $15,000, it's $15,000 for which you hadn't budgeted in your start-up costs so you need to rework your figures.  You also need to get an accurate idea of how much it will cost to run and add that to your monthly expenses.  Put another way - that expense alone is going to chew up ~20% of the maximum amount you're currently looking to raise.

[dank]

I don't really think it matters if I'm making 10-20 or even 30 thousand a month.

mlawrence, that's just your opinion.  It's clearly possible.

[repentance]

I don't really think it matters if I'm making 10-20 or even 30 thousand a month.

mlawrence, that's just your opinion.  It's clearly possible.

Want to show us your calculations for how many bowls you'd have to sell per month to create revenue of $10,000, $20,000 and $30,000 per month respectively?

You don't even know your break even point because you don't have accurate numbers for your overheads.  It's absolutely possible to bring in $300,000+ per year and be losing money.  You're not providing anyone with any numbers that credibly support your assertion that your hookah lounge can make (ie, have profits of) up to $360,000 per annum.

[Vod]

I don't really think it matters if I'm making 10-20 or even 30 thousand a month.

mlawrence, that's just your opinion.  It's clearly possible.

1) You have a way to more than double your money every year?  If so, why are you wasting your time on a Hookah Lounge?  Become the richest man in the history of the planet instead.
2) You are one of the smartest men in the world?

Where was I wrong?  Which premise was my opinion and not fact?

[dank]

I don't really think it matters if I'm making 10-20 or even 30 thousand a month.

mlawrence, that's just your opinion.  It's clearly possible.

Want to show us your calculations for how many bowls you'd have to sell per month to create revenue of $10,000, $20,000 and $30,000 per month respectively?

You don't even know your break even point because you don't have accurate numbers for your overheads.  It's absolutely possible to bring in $300,000+ per year and be losing money.

Have you looked at the spreadsheet?  I feel the profit spreadsheet can be adjusted with such expenses and accurately portray an estimate, it currently stands at $2000 in extraneous monthly costs aside supplies and labor.  Even if this was adjusted to $5000, profit would stand at $7,475/mo for 60 people/day average, or $13,875/mo at 80/day.

[repentance]

Have you looked at the spreadsheet?  I feel the profit spreadsheet can be adjusted with such expenses and accurately portray an estimate, it currently stands at $2000 in extraneous monthly costs aside supplies and labor.  Even if this was adjusted to $5000, profit would stand at $7,475/mo for 60 people/day average, or $13,875/mo at 80/day.

Don't you think the fact that you haven't been able to raise even the lower amount of your initial 2000-4000 BTC target says something about how accurate and reliable potential investors consider your spreadsheets to be?

Personally, I don't think this is the best place for you to seek funding for your venture.  I think you'd be far better off using something like Kickstarter (if you're looking for donations, which you effectively are) or Prosper (if you're looking for actual lenders) because they have a much larger user base which means more people who might be willing to risk $100, $500 or $1000 on your venture.  Especially once you start getting above $50,000 in start up costs, you're going to find it difficult to raise that kind of money through this forum.  Ask yourself why none of the larger lenders on this forum who "invest" the funds of other users are throwing any money your way.  Why aren't they entrusting their user funds to you and your venture?

[Vod]

Personally, I don't think this is the best place for you to seek funding for your venture.  I think you'd be far better off using something like Kickstarter (if you're looking for donations, which you effectively are) or Prosper (if you're looking for actual lenders) because they have a much larger user base which means more people who might be willing to risk $100, $500 or $1000 on your venture.  

If you think I'm being tough in regards to your illegal ponzi, those guys are going to tear you apart.  Just be warned.  

[repentance]

Personally, I don't think this is the best place for you to seek funding for your venture.  I think you'd be far better off using something like Kickstarter (if you're looking for donations, which you effectively are) or Prosper (if you're looking for actual lenders) because they have a much larger user base which means more people who might be willing to risk $100, $500 or $1000 on your venture.  

If you think I'm being tough in regards to your illegal ponzi, those guys are going to tear you apart.  Just be warned.  

Any genuine lender is going to tear him apart and tell him to come back when he's got numbers he can actually back up.  dank would rather guess at costs than do the actual research required to find out how much it would cost to install appropriate filtration equipment in the specific property he's looking at (was the $15,000 mentioned to him for a 60,000 cubic feet space?) and the monthly running costs of such a system (this can be calculated with a reasonable degree of accuracy is you have enough details). 

Even how much it costs to run air conditioning purely for comfort depends on the size of the space, the materials from which the building is made, furniture and fittings within the room, the number of occupants, the type of insulation in the building, the outside temperature, and a shitload of other things.  HVAC specialists can give you fairly accurate estimates based on those factors, but dank doesn't have those details even if he knew how to do the calculations himself.

[dank]

I did do actual research to come up with my numbers, there are only a few variables that are estimations.  The reason they won't lend to me is because they do not understand nor have faith in me.  There is a reason that some people do lend to me, you know.

[repentance]

I did do actual research to come up with my numbers, there are only a few variables that are estimations.  The reason they won't lend to me is because they do not understand nor have faith in me.  There is a reason that some people do lend to me, you know.

You have a pledge of $5000 towards this project contingent on you raising $20,000, not actually funds in your hand.  Any kid with a McJob should be able to get a $5,000 credit card which isn't contingent on anything.  People don't "have faith" in you because your numbers don't make any sense and every time someone asks you to come up with actual, hard numbers you just add a couple more thousand dollars to the monthly expenses on your spreadsheet without validating those numbers in any way.

If you've now been in touch will the real estate agent and have accurate information about what's already there as well as the plans and you've checked with the city regarding the codes/regulations you'll be required to meet as an indoor smoking venue, then you're in a position to hire someone to inspect the property you're looking at and get a report on whether it meets those code and if not, what will be required to bring it up to standard.  Without such a report, you can't even determine whether you can afford those premises.  If someone else rents those premises before you have the money to do so or if it would cost too much to bring those premises up to standard, then you need to do all that research again in respect of another property.  So far, you've produced no evidence of doing such research.

[dank]

I did do actual research to come up with my numbers, there are only a few variables that are estimations.  The reason they won't lend to me is because they do not understand nor have faith in me.  There is a reason that some people do lend to me, you know.

You have a pledge of $5000 towards this project contingent on you raising $20,000, not actually funds in your hand.  Any kid with a McJob should be able to get a $5,000 credit card which isn't contingent on anything.  People don't "have faith" in you because your numbers don't make any sense and every time someone asks you to come up with actual, hard numbers you just add a couple more thousand dollars to the monthly expenses on your spreadsheet without validating those numbers in any way.

If you've now been in touch will the real estate agent and have accurate information about what's already there as well as the plans and you've checked with the city regarding the codes/regulations you'll be required to meet as an indoor smoking venue, then you're in a position to hire someone to inspect the property you're looking at and get a report on whether it meets those code and if not, what will be required to bring it up to standard.  Without such a report, you can't even determine whether you can afford those premises.  If someone else rents those premises before you have the money to do so or if it would cost too much to bring those premises up to standard, then you need to do all that research again in respect of another property.  So far, you've produced no evidence of doing such research.

But I have still done research.  That will come but the actual profitability of the business is slightly more important, in my opinion.  And it's not a $5000 credit card, it's an investor.

[greyhawk]

Just throwing this out here: http://yppm.removed.us/

[dank]

Just throwing this out here: http://yppm.removed.us/

These people probably become serial killers later in life.

[repentance]

But I have still done research.  That will come but the actual profitability of the business is slightly more important, in my opinion.  And it's not a $5000 credit card, it's an investor.

It's a potential investor because the investment is contingent on you raising another $15,000.  You could get an actual $5,000 in your hand by going and getting a credit card, so your investor clearly doesn't have enough faith in you to give you funds here and now - and nor should they because your "profitability" estimates are made up numbers which bear little resemblance to real world costs.

[the_thing]

Dank, dude, this leads nowhere. Maybe you should lock the thread and seek financial help elsewhere.

[Vod]

Closing down your ponzi will also be necessary, should you want a lender.  It doesn't matter if YOU think it's legal - everyone else can see it isn't.

[Bitcoin Oz]

I'm not too concerned on the air filtering, it's not like people will pass out due to lack of oxygen.  Even the college bathroom only had one instance of piss all over the seat, just saying the average person doesn't do that.

No, it really is not structured as a ponzi, believe as you wish though.

I wouldn't really expect you to admit it was one.  You'd lose new money and your whole "bank" would collapse.

It's still a ponzi.

I use my investors' funds within the specified time frame to make a positive return.  I don't just pay interest with new deposits.  I used 4 BTC of new deposits to repay Onichans 105 BTC principle, maybe you consider that a ponzi, but a real ponzi would have used 105 BTC.

Yes that is indeed a ponzi.

[repentance]

Dank, dude, this leads nowhere. Maybe you should lock the thread and seek financial help elsewhere.

That's been suggested to him on multiple occasions, not just in respect of this particular venture but also in respect of his previous ideas.