~1,314,000 new coins will be created over the next 365 days

[jehst]

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

[Amph]

ok but, these coins will not be dumped all in one session, they will be dumped at the rate of 1800(it's a good estimate about how many coins are dumped each day, because i doubt that miners are dumping 100% of their reward) at max per day, it won't be a real problem to absorb those in the arch of an entire year

[NorrisK]

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

This is the same rate as the last few years. you clearly didnt do your homework before you invested in bitcoin. Time to sell for you as you obviously got in above your head.

[inca]

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

You don't understand bitcoin.

[eerygarden]

It sounds like an awful lot but how many gbp or usd get created each year? Or for other investments like gold or property, how many of these are created or mined each year? The difference with bitcoin is we know the ceiling and it is pretty scarce.

[futureofbitcoin]

it seems like the OP doesn't understand the situation, but none of the posters understood the OP.

He's simply trying to say that the price will increase after the halving or maybe the next halving. When inflation of coins will be very little, perhaps even negative inflation because of lost coins.

[eerygarden]

it seems like the OP doesn't understand the situation, but none of the posters understood the OP.

He's simply trying to say that the price will increase after the halving or maybe the next halving. When inflation of coins will be very little, perhaps even negative inflation because of lost coins.

perhaps i misunderstood but it seems to me the OP was saying that the price may rise but it will inevitably always fall.

[futureofbitcoin]

it seems like the OP doesn't understand the situation, but none of the posters understood the OP.

He's simply trying to say that the price will increase after the halving or maybe the next halving. When inflation of coins will be very little, perhaps even negative inflation because of lost coins.

perhaps i misunderstood but it seems to me the OP was saying that the price may rise but it will inevitably always fall.

He's saying the inflation of coins is too large currently to sustain large price growth. But when the inflation becomes small, then price growth will be sustainable.

This is further evidenced by his signature.

That said, more important than the amount of inflation is the amount of adoption. If enough people adopt, potentially tens or hundreds of billions can be poured in, a mere 300 million is just a drop in the bucket.

[eerygarden]

That said, more important than the amount of inflation is the amount of adoption. If enough people adopt, potentially tens or hundreds of billions can be poured in, a mere 300 million is just a drop in the bucket.

yep, totally.

[molecular]

~1,314,000 new coins will be created over the next 365 days
Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

The economy doesn't absorb anything. It uses money to facilitate trade or as collateral in contracts.

I think what you might mean is that demand will have to absorb 1.3 mm worth of supply.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more.

what? That would cost someone many many millions of dollars. Better accumulate slowly at low prices while there's blood on the streets, which is what the smart money is doing, just as it was doing at $2 in December 2011 (only now things move much slower)

But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

In most of the "distribution phase" the trend has been UP. Guess what: because there is demand from the people the coins are being distributed to. Coins aren't just distributed by mining, they're also distributed by selling (even more so now than back in the past the gpu / cpu mining was a thing, and also even more so at low prices when miners have to sell a higher percentage of the mined coins).

Controlled supply doesn't guarantee anything. If (when) demand outpaces the constantly diminishing supply, the price will rise.

Will you then be surprised and say:

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

[jehst]

it seems like the OP doesn't understand the situation, but none of the posters understood the OP.

He's simply trying to say that the price will increase after the halving or maybe the next halving. When inflation of coins will be very little, perhaps even negative inflation because of lost coins.

perhaps i misunderstood but it seems to me the OP was saying that the price may rise but it will inevitably always fall.

He's saying the inflation of coins is too large currently to sustain large price growth. But when the inflation becomes small, then price growth will be sustainable.

This is further evidenced by his signature.

Yes exactly. Was my op so unclear that only a few people could understand it? If so, I apologize.

That said, more important than the amount of inflation is the amount of adoption. If enough people adopt, potentially tens or hundreds of billions can be poured in, a mere 300 million is just a drop in the bucket.

Demand and supply are equally important.

The reason I talk only about supply and not so much about demand is because I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up. Previously, demand increased by orders of magnitude as new segments of the population learned about bitcoin for the first time.
Bitcoin's no longer a secret. There is no giant pool of users waiting to adopt if only they knew about bitcoin. That was the case during every previous rally.

[Amph]

Demand and supply are equally important.

The reason I talk only about supply and not so much about demand is because I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up. Previously, demand increased by orders of magnitude as new segments of the population learned about bitcoin for the first time.
Bitcoin's no longer a secret. There is no giant pool of users waiting to adopt if only they knew about bitcoin. That was the case during every previous rally.

i find your way of knowing how the future of bitcoin will be, quite good, i like how you are isolating 1 variable, and leaving the other, that it is unknown for now, so it's better to play with what we know, like the mining supply

we know that if everything stays the same, so the demand will not change, the price in theory will go up because of the fixed rate of the mining supply, that will diminish over time, and will cause less dumping on the market, and thus the market will need to absorb less coins

[jehst]

Demand and supply are equally important.

The reason I talk only about supply and not so much about demand is because I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up. Previously, demand increased by orders of magnitude as new segments of the population learned about bitcoin for the first time.
Bitcoin's no longer a secret. There is no giant pool of users waiting to adopt if only they knew about bitcoin. That was the case during every previous rally.

i find your way of knowing how the future of bitcoin will be, quite good, i like how you are isolating 1 variable, and leaving the other, that it is unknown for now, so it's better to play with what we know, like the mining supply

we know that if everything stays the same, so the demand will not change, the price in theory will go up because of the fixed rate of the mining supply, that will diminish over time, and will cause less dumping on the market, and thus the market will need to absorb less coins

Yes, you understand my way of thinking completely. Some people only see negativity in this post. I'm not negative. The bitcoin economy is growing at a healthy pace. Bitcoin's market cap is increasing millions of dollars per week during this period of stability. I'm optimistic. Bitcoin doesn't need to grow faster than it's growing. If demand growth remains the same, we simply need to wait as supply growth goes down).

In my opinion, after two block halvings, there will be 900 new BTC per day. If demand growth remains exactly the same, then we can sustain a $1000-2000/BTC exchange rate. Maybe this angers the people who have 3.2 BTC and want to be USD millionaires next year. But I think that waiting 6 years to quadruple one's purchasing power is actually considered a homerun investment in the real world. If $1000 to $2000 per bitcoin in 6 years doesn't sound appealing, then the solution is just to get more bitcoin. Get a sufficient number of bitcoin so that you can be happy with $2000 per bitcoin.

[spazzdla]

So one will accumulate.

[coinableS]

I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up.

I do, and I think a lot of other people do as well. A lot of people still don't know what bitcoin is and that it's actually a revolutionary technology. Most people think it's a bankrupt ponzi scheme with a CEO who committed suicide. Or they just think that it is phony nerd-money created out of thin air like WOW gold.
Although I agree the inflation rate is high now making it difficult to maintain a higher price, large range adoption could happen any time. If just a small percentage of the online population decided they wanted a bitcoin, they can't have it because there are not enough to go around.

[Kupsi]

I don't see any reason why bitcoin demand would suddenly go up.

Look to Russia 

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/localbtcRUB#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

Australia maybe 

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/localbtcAUD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

Or US 

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/localbtcUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

[johnyj]

That's a lot of coins, some people still have hope to reach 10000 coins holding target 

[Bit_Happy]

Some will be sold.
Some will be kept by miners.
Either way, the bitcoin economy will need to absorb 1,314,000 new coins. At $230 per coin, that's 300 million dollars to break even.

At any given time, someone can spike the price up to $500 or $1000 or more. But don't be fooled. It won't last because it can't last. The trend is down because Satoshi designed 2015-2016 to be part of the distribution phase. Controlled supply somewhat guarantees that there will be buying opportunities for years to come.

I only wish I'd learned this earlier.

There are over 8 Billion people in the world.
Anyone who wants to own at least one entire Bitcoin needs to buy soon, before the prices go radically higher. 

[ajareselde]

There are over 8 Billion people in the world.
Anyone who wants to own at least one entire Bitcoin needs to buy soon, before the prices go radically higher. 

If there was any chance in that logic to succeed,  one would also have to work on coin promotion and increase of bitcoin audience, but given the fact that there
is no central authority that would profit from such a thing, the only chance we have is same like before; hope for a pump large enough to make current holders spread the word about bitcoin.
Currently halving is the only option to make a mass hype to reappear, and there's still a lot of time til that point.

cheers

[okthen]

There are over 8 Billion people in the world.
Anyone who wants to own at least one entire Bitcoin needs to buy soon, before the prices go radically higher. 

If there was any chance in that logic to succeed,  one would also have to work on coin promotion and increase of bitcoin audience, but given the fact that there
is no central authority that would profit from such a thing, the only chance we have is same like before; hope for a pump large enough to make current holders spread the word about bitcoin.
Currently halving is the only option to make a mass hype to reappear, and there's still a lot of time til that point.

cheers

We can't count on 8 billion people, but in the western world it would only take a big newspiece to get most interested in getting even a portion of it. Will such news happen? Only time can tell...