hedgy73
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Activity: 1414
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June 17, 2015, 10:39:57 PM |
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Right so if we take the S5 figure, for instance, and extend it with the average 144 blocks per day, I think it's 1 in 309,314.88. I also think all of these calculations are all restatements of what everyone in this thread said earlier. The lotto-type odds rely on difficulty and local hashrate. Difficulty depends on target. Target is reset every 2016 blocks based on global hashrate. I've no idea mate I just go on coinwarz figures they seem to be pretty accurate. EDIT: At the end of the day the more hash you have the better you're chance  . |
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Bitcoin mining is now a specialized and very risky industry, just like gold mining. Amateur miners are unlikely to make much money, and may even lose money. Bitcoin is much more than just mining, though!
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WBF1 (OP)
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June 17, 2015, 11:15:39 PM |
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Right so if we take the S5 figure, for instance, and extend it with the average 144 blocks per day, I think it's 1 in 309,314.88. I also think all of these calculations are all restatements of what everyone in this thread said earlier. The lotto-type odds rely on difficulty and local hashrate. Difficulty depends on target. Target is reset every 2016 blocks based on global hashrate. I've no idea mate I just go on coinwarz figures they seem to be pretty accurate. EDIT: At the end of the day the more hash you have the better you're chance . Yep. But at the end of the day I want to be able to tell people what my odds are at hitting a block when running a little home miner (R-Box or U3... Maybe U2 or other USB miner). So for instance, at current difficulty, I can tell someone that little funny looking thing on my shelf gives me a 1 in 5.5 million shot at $6250 every 10 minutes or so for the cost of 15 cents a day. (of course at current btc value). It's a little easier way of explaining it to people to engrained in difficulties, blocks, hashrates, etc. |
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hedgy73
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Activity: 1414
Merit: 1077
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June 17, 2015, 11:22:15 PM |
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Right so if we take the S5 figure, for instance, and extend it with the average 144 blocks per day, I think it's 1 in 309,314.88. I also think all of these calculations are all restatements of what everyone in this thread said earlier. The lotto-type odds rely on difficulty and local hashrate. Difficulty depends on target. Target is reset every 2016 blocks based on global hashrate. I've no idea mate I just go on coinwarz figures they seem to be pretty accurate. EDIT: At the end of the day the more hash you have the better you're chance . Yep. But at the end of the day I want to be able to tell people what my odds are at hitting a block when running a little home miner (R-Box or U3... Maybe U2 or other USB miner). So for instance, at current difficulty, I can tell someone that little funny looking thing on my shelf gives me a 1 in 5.5 million shot at $6250 every 10 minutes or so for the cost of 15 cents a day. (of course at current btc value). It's a little easier way of explaining it to people to engrained in difficulties, blocks, hashrates, etc. Thats all you can do mate I'm afraid, mining is so difficult now that unless you have mega terrahashes or a petahash its just not worth it really. Sad to say but true. Ocassionally you hear about a smallish miner hitting a block but thats very rare. |
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jonnybravo0311
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Activity: 1344
Merit: 1023
Mine at Jonny's Pool
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June 18, 2015, 12:09:38 AM |
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Right so if we take the S5 figure, for instance, and extend it with the average 144 blocks per day, I think it's 1 in 309,314.88. I also think all of these calculations are all restatements of what everyone in this thread said earlier. The lotto-type odds rely on difficulty and local hashrate. Difficulty depends on target. Target is reset every 2016 blocks based on global hashrate. I've no idea mate I just go on coinwarz figures they seem to be pretty accurate. EDIT: At the end of the day the more hash you have the better you're chance . Yep. But at the end of the day I want to be able to tell people what my odds are at hitting a block when running a little home miner (R-Box or U3... Maybe U2 or other USB miner). So for instance, at current difficulty, I can tell someone that little funny looking thing on my shelf gives me a 1 in 5.5 million shot at $6250 every 10 minutes or so for the cost of 15 cents a day. (of course at current btc value). It's a little easier way of explaining it to people to engrained in difficulties, blocks, hashrates, etc. You do that exactly the way it's been explained. You can either do the math by yourself, or use an online calculator like bitcoinwisdom.com to figure out how much you'd expect to earn in a day and then divide 25 that number... just as I showed in my example. A U2 (figuring 2GH/s)... your chance is 1 in 1,235,177.87 a day. |
Jonny's Pool - Mine with us and help us grow! Support a pool that supports Bitcoin, not a hardware manufacturer's pockets! No SPV cheats. No empty blocks.
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aarons6
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Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
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June 18, 2015, 01:08:13 AM |
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What happens after all 21 million bitcoins have been mined? Does this mean no more possible reward for solo mining or will it just be the transaction fees for finding a block?
https://www.google.com/webhp#q=bitcoin+%22what+happens+when+all%22tl;dr: yes, transaction fees - no, all Bitcoins mined is not any time soon - yes, the halving curve means that the block reward will be fairly low long before then. I'm sure there's a BitcoinTalk thread somewhere in those Google results, best pick it up over there  Yeah but what I am after is a 1 in X chance of hitting a block, not 1 in X chance of receiving Y amt of bitcoin. its impossible. its like saying you want a 1 in X chance of flipping a quarter 5 times in a row and each time come up heads. while it could happen, you cant ever know how many times you have to flip the 5 quarters to make them all come up heads. I think that's still a fair comparison though. Even with, for example, powerball... Ignore all but jackpot. The chance of powerball jackpot is 1 in 175,223,510. So if each block is a drawing, there is a chance of winning each block drawing. But it's not a guarantee. Same with the powerball. The only guarantee is if you buy all 175,223,510 combinations. Even buying 175,223,509 doesn't guarantee anything except the set odds. In my mind this is akin to having 100% of network hashrate. Odds never guarantee anything. i think the best comparison would be like a block being a huge file cabinet. inside this is a folder for every single bitcoin address. as a solo miner what you are doing is searching through that cabinet trying to find your folder with your address on it.. as a miner on a pool what you are doing is searching for the pools address.. hash rate, and difficulty determine how many folders you can search per hour. every time the network finds a block, it gets reset and the folders are put back in a different order. there really is no certain combinations.. you start with 1 and work your way through until you find the one that matches.. or someone else finds theirs and it gets reset and you start over. even if you had 100% of the network hash rate.. it still could take far longer then the calculations to find your folder. there is nothing keeping your folder from being the last one in the cabinet.. all of these numbers are based on the 50% average.. its not a guarantee or even a maximum.. with your power ball, there is only so many combinations.. its exact. one will happen each week. if you buy all of the tickets you will win. |
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WBF1 (OP)
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June 18, 2015, 01:30:21 AM |
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What happens after all 21 million bitcoins have been mined? Does this mean no more possible reward for solo mining or will it just be the transaction fees for finding a block?
https://www.google.com/webhp#q=bitcoin+%22what+happens+when+all%22tl;dr: yes, transaction fees - no, all Bitcoins mined is not any time soon - yes, the halving curve means that the block reward will be fairly low long before then. I'm sure there's a BitcoinTalk thread somewhere in those Google results, best pick it up over there Yeah but what I am after is a 1 in X chance of hitting a block, not 1 in X chance of receiving Y amt of bitcoin. its impossible. its like saying you want a 1 in X chance of flipping a quarter 5 times in a row and each time come up heads. while it could happen, you cant ever know how many times you have to flip the 5 quarters to make them all come up heads. I think that's still a fair comparison though. Even with, for example, powerball... Ignore all but jackpot. The chance of powerball jackpot is 1 in 175,223,510. So if each block is a drawing, there is a chance of winning each block drawing. But it's not a guarantee. Same with the powerball. The only guarantee is if you buy all 175,223,510 combinations. Even buying 175,223,509 doesn't guarantee anything except the set odds. In my mind this is akin to having 100% of network hashrate. Odds never guarantee anything. i think the best comparison would be like a block being a huge file cabinet. inside this is a folder for every single bitcoin address. as a solo miner what you are doing is searching through that cabinet trying to find your folder with your address on it.. as a miner on a pool what you are doing is searching for the pools address.. hash rate, and difficulty determine how many folders you can search per hour. every time the network finds a block, it gets reset and the folders are put back in a different order. there really is no certain combinations.. you start with 1 and work your way through until you find the one that matches.. or someone else finds theirs and it gets reset and you start over. even if you had 100% of the network hash rate.. it still could take far longer then the calculations to find your folder. there is nothing keeping your folder from being the last one in the cabinet.. all of these numbers are based on the 50% average.. its not a guarantee or even a maximum.. with your power ball, there is only so many combinations.. its exact. one will happen each week. if you buy all of the tickets you will win. Well not exactly. If someone else also has the wining ticket you have to split it. Also, if you have 100% of the hashrate it goes without saying that all the blocks found will be found by you. |
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aarons6
Legendary
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Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
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June 18, 2015, 01:59:22 AM |
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What happens after all 21 million bitcoins have been mined? Does this mean no more possible reward for solo mining or will it just be the transaction fees for finding a block?
https://www.google.com/webhp#q=bitcoin+%22what+happens+when+all%22tl;dr: yes, transaction fees - no, all Bitcoins mined is not any time soon - yes, the halving curve means that the block reward will be fairly low long before then. I'm sure there's a BitcoinTalk thread somewhere in those Google results, best pick it up over there Yeah but what I am after is a 1 in X chance of hitting a block, not 1 in X chance of receiving Y amt of bitcoin. its impossible. its like saying you want a 1 in X chance of flipping a quarter 5 times in a row and each time come up heads. while it could happen, you cant ever know how many times you have to flip the 5 quarters to make them all come up heads. I think that's still a fair comparison though. Even with, for example, powerball... Ignore all but jackpot. The chance of powerball jackpot is 1 in 175,223,510. So if each block is a drawing, there is a chance of winning each block drawing. But it's not a guarantee. Same with the powerball. The only guarantee is if you buy all 175,223,510 combinations. Even buying 175,223,509 doesn't guarantee anything except the set odds. In my mind this is akin to having 100% of network hashrate. Odds never guarantee anything. i think the best comparison would be like a block being a huge file cabinet. inside this is a folder for every single bitcoin address. as a solo miner what you are doing is searching through that cabinet trying to find your folder with your address on it.. as a miner on a pool what you are doing is searching for the pools address.. hash rate, and difficulty determine how many folders you can search per hour. every time the network finds a block, it gets reset and the folders are put back in a different order. there really is no certain combinations.. you start with 1 and work your way through until you find the one that matches.. or someone else finds theirs and it gets reset and you start over. even if you had 100% of the network hash rate.. it still could take far longer then the calculations to find your folder. there is nothing keeping your folder from being the last one in the cabinet.. all of these numbers are based on the 50% average.. its not a guarantee or even a maximum.. with your power ball, there is only so many combinations.. its exact. one will happen each week. if you buy all of the tickets you will win. Well not exactly. If someone else also has the wining ticket you have to split it. Also, if you have 100% of the hashrate it goes without saying that all the blocks found will be found by you. yeah but we werent talking about that.. |
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