[FANTASY] What if.. the Greek people choose Bitcoin/Crypto as a currency?

[Zetacoin Express]

This is pure fantasy since I know there is no chance it would ever happen, but I (as well as others) like to fantasize because it's fun and makes us feel good.  

Besides, I'm bored and have a few minutes to waste.

Building on this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1009415.0

I wonder, what would actually happen if Greece does indeed exit the Euro and decides to adopt Bitcoin as it's national currency.  Here's my take on it.

For starters the Greek exit alone would cause a price rise in Bitcoin, Gold, and the altcoin markets.  The Euro will drop and the US dollar will follow.

Then when Greece announces it is going to use Bitcoin there will be a massive surge in Bitcoin's price.  Up to the 10's of thousands of US dollars.  Not only because (Bitcoins) become more valued, but also because the US dollar and Euro have lost value.  The Greek citizens would have the strongest currency (in regards to buying power) in the world.  Outstanding debts would be paid off almost effortlessly. Assuming of course that the government and citizens began to buy Bitcoin in the months prior to these events.  Within a year Greece would probably be the most prosperous nation in the world.  Other Euro nations may follow and drive Bitcoin's price even higher.  The US dollar and Euro would suffer tremendously.

Greece would basically be at the epicenter of crypto-currency.  Most Bitcoin business would probably move and setup in Greece.  We would see a whole new multitude of Bitcoin based services operating out of Greece with the government's blessing.

Nice right? but yeah, I see the problems that would prevent such a thing from happening.  First of all, Greece would need to be able to buy Bitcoins in order to have a reserve supply.  I don't expect a government will simply adopt a currency without holding a major supply of it.  Greece is broke, so I don't see it being able to buy enough Bitcoins.

This is why it would make sense for Greece to adopt a low valued Altcoin (or create one).  It could buy up most of the supply of the selected altcoin and use that instead.  This would be the intelligent option and would have the same effect as if using Bitcoin.  Whatever they choose, Bitcoin would still benefit.

Anyways, I'm just some dude posting on a forum having fun fantasizing about stuff that may not happen.  Would love to hear your thoughts on the subject.

Take a moment and fantasize...  

[rocks]

Greece won't adopt Bitcoin as a currency. That is not how sound money mechanisms work.

Now the Greek people themselves might choose to ignore government fiat and adopt Bitcoin. But that is very different from Greece adopting bitcoin.

[Morecoin Freeman]

I would move to Greece then.

[Zetacoin Express]

That is not how sound money mechanisms work.

Could you expand on that?
I don't understand.

[BTCtrader71]

I've been having a similar fantasy myself just now as I listen to NPR talk about a miscalculation by Greek leaders leading to an accidental Grexit - a "Graccident"

In my dream version, the Greek leaders don't know what to do on Monday after they default. In a panic, and for lack of any better ideas, they start to talk about a Cyprus-style haircut. Greek citizens rush into various safe havens and find bitcoin is the easiest and quickest. As money drains from Greek banks, leaders realize the haircut will have to be shorter, and shorter, and shorter, encouraging even faster flight into bitcoin. Within  a few days of Graccident we see the value of bitcoin triple. Now Greek leaders are in total panic when they realize the haircut will be like 50% or more of bank funds (not just 10% like in Cyprus). Meanwhile, the people start using bitcoin (and tether and other blockchain based currencies) because all of their fiat has been confiscated and whatever is left they know will be stolen by the gov't. Greek leaders disagree over what to do about bitcoin and as a result, they do nothing. Within 6 months, Greek unemployment has stabilized at 25%; within 12 months, it has decreased to 10%. The world says: holy fuck, how did that happen -- we thought unemployment would rise!!?!? And that's when the whole world wakes up to bitcoin. (And price shoots to a new ATH of $50,000, before crashing to $3000 .... voila, bitcoin's next bubble cycle.)

20 years later, historians talk about how Graccident triggered the First Bitcoin Big Bang.

Of course, that's all just a dream. But wouldn't it be nice 

[cellard]

I would move to Greece then.

The beauty of Bitcoin is you wouldn't probably need to move to Greece to benefit from it. Just get the citizenship, start a business there and that's all, you can come back home and operate your BTC business.

[Fakhoury]

I've been having a similar fantasy myself just now as I listen to NPR talk about a miscalculation by Greek leaders leading to an accidental Grexit - a "Graccident"

In my dream version, the Greek leaders don't know what to do on Monday after they default. In a panic, and for lack of any better ideas, they start to talk about a Cyprus-style haircut. Greek citizens rush into various safe havens and find bitcoin is the easiest and quickest. As money drains from Greek banks, leaders realize the haircut will have to be shorter, and shorter, and shorter, encouraging even faster flight into bitcoin. Within  a few days of Graccident we see the value of bitcoin triple. Now Greek leaders are in total panic when they realize the haircut will be like 50% or more of bank funds (not just 10% like in Cyprus). Meanwhile, the people start using bitcoin (and tether and other blockchain based currencies) because all of their fiat has been confiscated and whatever is left they know will be stolen by the gov't. Greek leaders disagree over what to do about bitcoin and as a result, they do nothing. Within 6 months, Greek unemployment has stabilized at 25%; within 12 months, it has decreased to 10%. The world says: holy fuck, how did that happen -- we thought unemployment would rise!!?!? And that's when the whole world wakes up to bitcoin. (And price shoots to a new ATH of $50,000, before crashing to $3000 .... voila, bitcoin's next bubble cycle.)

20 years later, historians talk about how Graccident triggered the First Bitcoin Big Bang.

Of course, that's all just a dream. But wouldn't it be nice 

Why this would be a dream, serious talking ?

[BTCtrader71]

I've been having a similar fantasy myself just now as I listen to NPR talk about a miscalculation by Greek leaders leading to an accidental Grexit - a "Graccident"

In my dream version, the Greek leaders don't know what to do on Monday after they default. In a panic, and for lack of any better ideas, they start to talk about a Cyprus-style haircut. Greek citizens rush into various safe havens and find bitcoin is the easiest and quickest. As money drains from Greek banks, leaders realize the haircut will have to be shorter, and shorter, and shorter, encouraging even faster flight into bitcoin. Within  a few days of Graccident we see the value of bitcoin triple. Now Greek leaders are in total panic when they realize the haircut will be like 50% or more of bank funds (not just 10% like in Cyprus). Meanwhile, the people start using bitcoin (and tether and other blockchain based currencies) because all of their fiat has been confiscated and whatever is left they know will be stolen by the gov't. Greek leaders disagree over what to do about bitcoin and as a result, they do nothing. Within 6 months, Greek unemployment has stabilized at 25%; within 12 months, it has decreased to 10%. The world says: holy fuck, how did that happen -- we thought unemployment would rise!!?!? And that's when the whole world wakes up to bitcoin. (And price shoots to a new ATH of $50,000, before crashing to $3000 .... voila, bitcoin's next bubble cycle.)

20 years later, historians talk about how Graccident triggered the First Bitcoin Big Bang.

Of course, that's all just a dream. But wouldn't it be nice 

Why this would be a dream, serious talking ?

Are you asking what's to stop this from really happening?

[Fakhoury]

I've been having a similar fantasy myself just now as I listen to NPR talk about a miscalculation by Greek leaders leading to an accidental Grexit - a "Graccident"

In my dream version, the Greek leaders don't know what to do on Monday after they default. In a panic, and for lack of any better ideas, they start to talk about a Cyprus-style haircut. Greek citizens rush into various safe havens and find bitcoin is the easiest and quickest. As money drains from Greek banks, leaders realize the haircut will have to be shorter, and shorter, and shorter, encouraging even faster flight into bitcoin. Within  a few days of Graccident we see the value of bitcoin triple. Now Greek leaders are in total panic when they realize the haircut will be like 50% or more of bank funds (not just 10% like in Cyprus). Meanwhile, the people start using bitcoin (and tether and other blockchain based currencies) because all of their fiat has been confiscated and whatever is left they know will be stolen by the gov't. Greek leaders disagree over what to do about bitcoin and as a result, they do nothing. Within 6 months, Greek unemployment has stabilized at 25%; within 12 months, it has decreased to 10%. The world says: holy fuck, how did that happen -- we thought unemployment would rise!!?!? And that's when the whole world wakes up to bitcoin. (And price shoots to a new ATH of $50,000, before crashing to $3000 .... voila, bitcoin's next bubble cycle.)

20 years later, historians talk about how Graccident triggered the First Bitcoin Big Bang.

Of course, that's all just a dream. But wouldn't it be nice 

Why this would be a dream, serious talking ?

Are you asking what's to stop this from really happening?

Yes, it's sounds not a dream, but a difficult scenario, but still, not a dream.

[BTCtrader71]

I've been having a similar fantasy myself just now as I listen to NPR talk about a miscalculation by Greek leaders leading to an accidental Grexit - a "Graccident"

In my dream version, the Greek leaders don't know what to do on Monday after they default. In a panic, and for lack of any better ideas, they start to talk about a Cyprus-style haircut. Greek citizens rush into various safe havens and find bitcoin is the easiest and quickest. As money drains from Greek banks, leaders realize the haircut will have to be shorter, and shorter, and shorter, encouraging even faster flight into bitcoin. Within  a few days of Graccident we see the value of bitcoin triple. Now Greek leaders are in total panic when they realize the haircut will be like 50% or more of bank funds (not just 10% like in Cyprus). Meanwhile, the people start using bitcoin (and tether and other blockchain based currencies) because all of their fiat has been confiscated and whatever is left they know will be stolen by the gov't. Greek leaders disagree over what to do about bitcoin and as a result, they do nothing. Within 6 months, Greek unemployment has stabilized at 25%; within 12 months, it has decreased to 10%. The world says: holy fuck, how did that happen -- we thought unemployment would rise!!?!? And that's when the whole world wakes up to bitcoin. (And price shoots to a new ATH of $50,000, before crashing to $3000 .... voila, bitcoin's next bubble cycle.)

20 years later, historians talk about how Graccident triggered the First Bitcoin Big Bang.

Of course, that's all just a dream. But wouldn't it be nice 

Why this would be a dream, serious talking ?

Are you asking what's to stop this from really happening?

Yes, it's sounds not a dream, but a difficult scenario, but still, not a dream.

My dream is based on the idea that the Greek leadership is left in an unusual state of disarray, to the point of inaction. In reality, I think capitol controls would get clamped down sooner and harder; they wouldn't let all those euros just drain out like that. Also, I question whether the average Greek citizen would be sufficiently motivated to adopt bitcoin that quickly.

[BTCtrader71]

In my dream, the Greek state continues (over days and weeks) to confiscate euros from anybody who has them in electronic form, but they make no such threats against funds stored as bitcoin. That's the only reason I can think of for the average citizen to panic-flee (over days and weeks) into bitcoin, and that would take unusually inept political leadership: stupid enough to continue to threaten stealing euros, stupid enough not to exert effective capital controls, and stupid enough to take a hands-off approach to bitcoin. (Stupid enough to do all 3 at the same time is what I mean. It would require a perfect storm of ineptitude.)

[Amph]

not a new argument, sometims i feel like dejavu here in bitcointalk, the same argumen over and over again...anyway how they can adopt it, if they are in a bad economic situation, they need to buy bitcoin first, and they cannot do it, with the misery that they have

but one thing is certain, if some big government that need desperately money can buy massively a coin like bitcoin, thus starting a panic buy chain, that will rise the price to an unbelievable level, they could potentially take a good profit from it

[Zetacoin Express]

There have been some developments since I first posted this a few weeks ago.  Looks like capital controls have indeed come.  From what I heard, they can no longer pay for digital items?  Hmm...

Anyway.  I understand now that while the government may not official adopt Bitcoin, the people could choose to do so.  Problem is of course (as mentioned) no many in Greece can afford to thow some money at Bitcoin, and with the limits on withdrawals and the inability to send money outside the country or purchase digital items, buying Bitcoin is not an attractive option.

Would a less expensive Altcoin be able to sneak it's way in and save they day?
So inexpensive that it would just be 'airdropped' and merchants could be encourage to accept it?

[BTCtrader71]

Problem is of course (as mentioned) no many in Greece can afford to thow some money at Bitcoin, and with the limits on withdrawals and the inability to send money outside the country or purchase digital items, buying Bitcoin is not an attractive option.

In my dream, this is how the trickle begins:

Spartan Route proposes economic connectivity through bitcoin by purchasing Greek exports in bitcoin. The site will invoice the customers in euros while merchants still complete the delivery through the normal process and be paid in bitcoin.

http://spartanroute.com/#focus

[BTCtrader71]

I still think of this as a fantasy, and yet, it's hard to imagine a better setup than the one that could very well play out in the coming months: Greece exits the Euro. Greek citizens are given a 30% "haircut" to pay off the debt, with the remainder converted to drachma. Greeks flee the drachma because it suffers tremendous inflation and keeping money in banks is viewed as inherently risky after the haircut. Credit cards, bank transfers, paypal and other traditional methods of online commerce [which are temporarily impossible due to the current bank closure] become more cumbersome and more expensive. Stories start to emerge of resourceful small Greek business owners prospering by exporting their goods for bitcoin (which they sell at a premium bc their competitors cannot conduct business) using services like Spartan Route (which stand to make a killing btw), then spending their bitcoin online (eg on Amazon, via gift cards bought with bitcoin) for daily needs like groceries which they have FedEx'ed from as far away as necessary.

[HigsonPP]

Greece should have never been a part of Euro zone. Euro's price was not something which they could afford either way and as shit went further, things didn't seem to be good for Greece. They were in debt of 1.7 billion euros. Adopting bitcoin, a currency which will multiply 55 times after Greece adopts it, would doom Greece rather than make it a strong nation.

[BTCtrader71]

Greece should have never been a part of Euro zone. Euro's price was not something which they could afford either way and as shit went further, things didn't seem to be good for Greece. They were in debt of 1.7 billion euros. Adopting bitcoin, a currency which will multiply 55 times after Greece adopts it, would doom Greece rather than make it a strong nation.

I think it is much more plausible and more likely for bitcoin to be used unofficially than for it to become officially adopted by the Greek government. But if (hypothetically) the government were to adopt it, with stage one of adoption being to accumulate a stash quietly while it is still niche, and then it goes up in value over the next few years ... then bye bye Greek debt (One of the many reasons they would not officially adopt it at this stage is that the very act of accumulating it would move the market too much. )

[Dump3er]

Greece should have never been a part of Euro zone. Euro's price was not something which they could afford either way and as shit went further, things didn't seem to be good for Greece. They were in debt of 1.7 billion euros. Adopting bitcoin, a currency which will multiply 55 times after Greece adopts it, would doom Greece rather than make it a strong nation.

There are solutions for all the economic problems that could be affected by adopting bitcoin. The real problem is that you need a very educated, young, modern and flexible society for such a scenario.

I can’t see any nation that would be able to adopt bitcoin as their official currency (for now), but particularly watching at Greece:

[tyz]

One third of all Greeks don't even have a bank account and credit or debt cards. How do you want to set up a virtual currency for such people on the county. i don't think Bitcoin would not work as a first currency in a countries like Greece.

[Herbert2020]

since the price of bitcoin is not stable and more importantly can no be measured for the single country all the Greeks are going to be f**ked. they will be millionaires one day and broke the next day.
also for buying anything they have to wait at least 5-15 minutes for their transaction to get confirmed and then get out of the shop!