Also, you got the bet wrong: [...]
BFL is
claiming 1400 Mhash/Joule, not 350. Â The bet as it is written lets them under-deilver by a factor of 4. Â That's a pretty enormous margin of error you're allowing them...
No, the bet is not wrong. I have explained multiple times that I believe the Jalapeno will be powered by 2 USB plugs (
here,
here, and
here), that is 700 Mhash/Joule, but I give myself a 2x margin error in this bet, so 350 Mhash/Joule.
However,
you have made the claim that ASICs can only be about 4x more efficient than FPGAs at the same process node, so 80 Mhash/Joule. Therefore this bet gives you a greater margin of error: 4.4x.
as well as possibly any unannounced product that the company will be shipping by June 30, 2013.
I am not interested in exposing myself to betsofbitcoin's counterparty risk with for nine months. Or in waiting that long to resolve the bet, to be honest.
You can bet very little if you wish. If you bet only, say, 5 BTC, you would win most of my 50 BTC (assuming you win and no one else bets more on your side).
Betsofbitcoin desperately needs to offer an "abort" option, i.e. criteria under which the bet will be nullified and all funds returned to bettors. Then we could have a more reasonable bet that would abort if BFL doesn't deliver by, say, January 1st.
The bet submitter can define conditions that would nullify the bet. In my case, I decided that if BFL does not deliver, the bet would be lost for me instead of being nullified.
They also really need to switch to intrade-style bid/ask markets. Â Since you know how much you stand to lose but do not know how much you stand to win, betsofbitcoin has no predictive power.
You know that if you win, you would
at least win the initial amount you bet, plus a variable amount of money. Isn't that sufficient to convince you to bet?