[POLL] Will LTC block halving happen in 1 year?

[smoothie]

 Ismael thinks that LTC block halving can be in 1 year from now. I disagree. He claims to have been in bitcoin since around 2009/2010 which baffles me.

[SaltySpitoon]

*Could happen in 1 year with the possibility of a large portion of the GPU BTC miners switching to LTC with the impending ASICS*

I say its possible, because with LTC difficulty being recalculated so quickly, you could throw a huge amount of mining power all at once, the difficulty wouldn't adjust until a large amount of blocks were mined quickly, and then everyone could go off and mine some other type of coin while they are waiting for the LTC difficulty to fall so they could repeat.

[smoothie]

*Could happen in 1 year with the possibility of a large portion of the GPU BTC miners switching to LTC with the impending ASICS*

I say its possible, because with LTC difficulty being recalculated so quickly, you could throw a huge amount of mining power all at once, the difficulty wouldn't adjust until a large amount of blocks were mined quickly, and then everyone could go off and mine some other type of coin while they are waiting for the LTC difficulty to fall so they could repeat.

Let's use the current hashing power of bitcoin network. Please show me your math.

I don't believe those claims.

Edit: If all BTC GPU miners came all at once the diff adjustments still happen every 2016 blocks. I see diff skyrocketing with the acceleration but I see it tapering off very quickly as no new hash power is able to be added (it is capped in a finite world).

[SaltySpitoon]

Its a pretty simple concept that doesn't require any math at all. Throw a huge amount of mining power at the coin, stop mining until the difficulty decreases again, rinse and repeat. Difficulty drops to a level where the added strength makes a huge impact, difficulty rises, people stop mining, difficulty drops, repeat. Its a Possible outcome. I didn't say I was 100% certain, I believe I said, I'd give it a 75% chance, as I'm sure that this could happen. Whether or not it does has to do with a lot of outside factors.

I'll vote when you add a "Its possible" or "It could happen" option.

[smoothie]

Its a pretty simple concept that doesn't require any math at all. Throw a huge amount of mining power at the coin, stop mining until the difficulty decreases again, rinse and repeat. Difficulty drops to a level where the added strength makes a huge impact, difficulty rises, people stop mining, difficulty drops, repeat. Its a Possible outcome. I didn't say I was 100% certain, I believe I said, I'd give it a 75% chance, as I'm sure that this could happen. Whether or not it does has to do with a lot of outside factors.

The time you spend waiting amounts to time that averages out in the end. I disagree, math is needed here. I would love to see how you come to such a conclusion using realistic numbers.

Please...show me.

[Revalin]

Throw a huge amount of mining power at the coin, stop mining until the difficulty decreases again, rinse and repeat. Difficulty drops to a level where the added strength makes a huge impact...

That's a scenario where you get difficulty waves like happened to Namecoin for a while, but it doesn't blow through huge numbers of blocks.

Let's say you come online with an absurd amount of hashpower and mine through 2016 blocks in 1 minute.  Great, huge head start!  But then it retargets to something absurdly high.  Your choices:  either keep mining at that rate (and thus generate the normal 2016 blocks per half week); or pull your hashpower offline (and then fail to even get to the next retarget this year).

The waves result in a SLOWER overall block rate because the down-cycles end up being extremely long.  You won't get 100k blocks per month this way.

[smoothie]

Throw a huge amount of mining power at the coin, stop mining until the difficulty decreases again, rinse and repeat. Difficulty drops to a level where the added strength makes a huge impact...

That's a scenario where you get difficulty waves like happened to Namecoin for a while, but it doesn't blow through huge numbers of blocks.

Let's say you come online with an absurd amount of hashpower and mine through 2016 blocks in 1 minute.  Great, huge head start!  But then it retargets to something absurdly high.  Your choices:  either keep mining at that rate (and thus generate the normal 2016 blocks per half week); or pull your hashpower offline (and then fail to even get to the next retarget this year).

The waves result in a SLOWER overall block rate because the down-cycles end up being extremely long.  You won't get 100k blocks per month this way.

+1 well said...anyone else?