Last week for BTC-50 Blocks...?

[macsga]

If my calculations are correct, this should be the last week before block 200,000 is solved. That marks the 25-Block chain and I expect (hope?) two things to happen:

1. ASICs will start to float from anytime now (yes, I think they're ready and waiting just for that).
2. Exchange value of BTC-USD/EUR will go up.

What do you think?

[Stephen Gornick]

If my calculations are correct, this should be the last week before block 200,000 is solved. That marks the 25-Block chain and I expect (hope?) two things to happen:

1. ASICs will start to float from anytime now (yes, I think they're ready and waiting just for that).
2. Exchange value of BTC-USD/EUR will go up.

What do you think?

Well, the block reward drop occurs at block 210,000 (when 10.5 million coins are issued, which is half of the 21 million total.)

So there's about 80 some days left (probably near the end of November):

 - http://www.BitcoinClock.com

As far as the exchange rate goiing up ...   this block reward subsidy drop wasn't unexpected.  The market tends to price in future events that it already knows about.

[macsga]

Well, the block reward occurs at block 210,000 (when 10.5 million coins are issued, which is half of the 21 million total.)

So there's about 80 some days left (probably near the end of November):

 - http://www.BitcoinClock.com

Ah, then my calculations are wrong; but my speculations are getting stronger!

[Raize]

If ASICs hit before November, it could be before Thanksgiving. If there's no ASIC, we're looking at sometime after Thanksgiving. It is more detailed than this, but this is a good way to explain it to people that aren't already mining or seriously invested in mining. After all, this is the speculation forum.

[Dansker]

Will this centralize bitcoin mining in even fewer hands?

Do you think the markets have already taken this into account in deciding the price of 1 BTC?

[macsga]

Will this centralize bitcoin mining in even fewer hands?

Do you think the markets have already taken this into account in deciding the price of 1 BTC?

I don't believe that it will keep BTC Mining in fewer hands. As a miner myself; I can certify that I will continue to mine even if I don't have the money to buy an ASIC. I don't know at what rate but; I will definitely continue.

As per the BTC exchange value:
My guess is that 1 BTC will be well over the double of the current market value. This will happen within a short term (earlier than January). As Bernanke decided to "print", the BTC value will continue to rise. As the difficulty to mine will rise, the value should follow too. Those are the main reasons I believe so...

...of course I'm not God, so don't take my words for granted.

[bigasic]

Will this centralize bitcoin mining in even fewer hands?

Do you think the markets have already taken this into account in deciding the price of 1 BTC?

I don't believe that it will keep BTC Mining in fewer hands. As a miner myself; I can certify that I will continue to mine even if I don't have the money to buy an ASIC. I don't know at what rate but; I will definitely continue.

As per the BTC exchange value:
My guess is that 1 BTC will be well over the double of the current market value. This will happen within a short term (earlier than January). As Bernanke decided to "print", the BTC value will continue to rise. As the difficulty to mine will rise, the value should follow too. Those are the main reasons I believe so...

...of course I'm not God, so don't take my words for granted.

I think it will depend on if the miners hoard more when the block halves.. IMHO, I think that the btc price will double within a few months of the halving. It will be interesting to see if this happens or not... Theoretically, it should, but like you said.. We aren't God..

[nimda]

Theoretically, it's already priced in because it's common knowledge.

[Hfleer]

If my calculations are correct, this should be the last week before block 200,000 is solved. That marks the 25-Block chain and I expect (hope?) two things to happen:

1. ASICs will start to float from anytime now (yes, I think they're ready and waiting just for that).
2. Exchange value of BTC-USD/EUR will go up.

What do you think?

1. not sure
2. Agree

[mb300sd]

Theoretically, it's already priced in because it's common knowledge.

Theoretically, yes, but I expect a slight rally since it won't really hit home for some until they see that first 25BTC block. Some miners may refuse to sell as low as they have been once they actually see lower rewards.

[macsga]

Let's not forget the people who are getting involved everyday. The flow is geometrically advancing. Mining, on the other hand, is not advancing at the same pace; so since more and more are getting involved (as investors), more and more will ask for BTCs for their fiat money. So it's not only about hoarding; the real bet here in my opinion is that wether this *rally* will stop (if it ever does)...